by Harry Cabluck - AP

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Running game suffers biggest struggles since Colorado. Not only was it clear that Central Florida was the best team at stopping the run the Longhorns will face until a potential appearance in the national championship game, but the Knights also loaded up to the stop the run, daring the Longhorns to throw the football. So throw the football they did, to the tune of 470 yards by Colt McCoy. The concern, however, is that Texas didn't run the ball successfully after three straight games coming close to or exceeding the 60% success rate the coaches want to achieve. Against Central Florida, Texas rushed for 67 yards on 25 carries, with a success rate of only 50%.

There are certainly a lot of reasons for the lack of success. Much like the Colorado game, the coaches were relatively stubborn about using the basic running plays -- the counter and zone plays with some zone read sprinkled in, while eschewing the Monroe Series after the first play from scrimmage and choosing not to run the actual misdirection counter play and the draw play debuted on the first play against Oklahoma. Though Cody Johnson scored his first touchdown on an inside zone play, all of his other attempts on the play were stopped by the Knights -- it just doesn't make that much sense to have such a big back running laterally down the line of scrimmage. The easy adjustment here is to run the same plays from under center, where Johnson would have the ability to come downhill more on the plays and square his shoulders to the line of scrimmage, though that is, of course, unlikely. In the two times the coaches used the jet tempo package, however, the Longhorns did use play action both times, so they did break tendency there. Congratulations, GD!

The coaches also have to be careful with their substitution patterns when they bring Johnson into the game. As Greg Davis effectively moved between 11 personnel and 10 personnel while alternating Johnson and Whittaker at the running back position, Johnson coming into the game often meant a running play and he's just not good enough in the passing game to establish much of a threat, despite his 14-yard gain late in the game in which he broke several tackles and then moved the pile at the end. Improvement in the passing game and picking up the blitz should be major points of emphasis for Johnson in bowl practices.

It looks like Johnson will get the start against Baylor after Fozzy Whittaker came out with the ones against UCF, with Brown speculating that he may get 20 carries. The question is how those 20 carries come about. The I formation look hasn't been particularly successful this season and it just doesn't make a ton of sense to only have two receivers on the field if Antwan Cobb isn't going to split out at all as a receiver -- recall that there was some speculation in fall camp that he would earn the role of third-down back.

The fact of the matter is that the current scheme doesn't suit Johnson particularly well and if the coaching staff is really intent on giving him more carries, they have to figure out what plays consistently work. With the success of the jumbo package, which debuted some actual runs behind the left side of the line for the first time this year, and the possibility of bootlegs and some play-action passing, that might have to be more of an option on any short-yardage situations like 3rd and 3 or even 4 in the middle of the field.

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More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

The Big 12 North is messy.

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With the team's major hurdles out of the way and a clear path to the Big 12 championship game, it is time to start thinking about who our North division opponent will be.  Call it "looking ahead" if you will; I'll just call it confidence.

Unfortunately, it is not a particularly easy task right now trying to figure out the North.  Whether you think the North is better than people give them credit for or just really, really bad, there isn't a lot separating each team; no team has been completely eliminated yet.  Here are the current standings for the Big 12 North:

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More photos » by Dave Martin - AP

Alabama running back Mark Ingram -- the key to the Tide's title hopes. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

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After back to back weekends with no major shakeups, college football finally felt a tremor as three of the top ten teams in last week's BCS standings fell. Iowa failed to erase a fourth quarter deficit and lost at home to Northwestern; Oregon fought hard but couldn't overcome the two-headed monster of Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck; and LSU succumbed to injuries, SEC officiating, and the Mark Ingram and Julio Jones show in Tuscaloosa.

So, where does that leave us? We can safely say goodbye to those three teams as the field of potential national champions looks much thinner. If you discount teams, like TCU and Boise State, from non-automatic qualifying leagues, like I do, then you're left with only five teams from BCS conferences who are undefeated or have a single loss and have a legitimate chance at Pasadena-Florida, Alabama, Texas, Cincinnati, and Georgia Tech. Sorry, Iowa and Pittsburgh fans, it is just not gonna happen.

I'm not going to go so far as to say the BCS is definitely going to work this year but it probably will. I will not be betting against Texas, Florida, or Alabama dropping a regular season game the rest of the way. And as long as Texas can take care of Kansas State/Nebraska in a virtual home game in Arlington, we'll see two undefeated conference champions play for the national title. Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State fans will have small beefs but nothing significant or foundation shattering to the BCS formula.

Let's quickly play the game of matching teams to their BCS bowl destinations. This is assuming Florida wins out, including an SEC title game victory over an undefeated Alabama, Ohio State defeats Iowa this weekend, and Texas, TCU, and Boise State also win out. Florida and Texas would play for it all giving the Sugar and Fiesta Bowls first and second selections as replacement picks. The Sugar would definitely take the 12-1 Crimson Tide, but the Fiesta's selection is not as clear cut. They could take 12-0 TCU-a reasonable and deserving selection but one without a significant fan base or national draw. They could take 10-2 USC-probable Pac 10 runner ups with an easy geographic tie and guaranteed strong tv ratings. The Fiesta Bowl might also look at 10-2 Oklahoma State, should the Cowboys win out. I think the easy pick here is the USC, though. The Orange Bowl gets the ACC champion automatically, let's say Georgia Tech. After those picks and automatic berths, the bowls would look like this:
BCS Title: Florida vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs.
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs.

The remaining picks go Orange, then Fiesta, and then Sugar. Cincinnati must be picked as Big East champs and TCU must be picked by virtue of finishing in the top 12 of the final BCS and being highest ranked team from a non-automatic qualifying conference. The last selection is the final at-large one-possible picks are Boise State, Oklahoma State, Miami, Iowa, Penn State, or Houston. These potential picks must have nine wins and finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings.

I say the Orange grabs Cincinnati, the Fiesta take Oklahoma State, and then the Sugar is left with TCU.

BCS Title: Florida vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Oklahoma State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. TCU

In this scenario, Boise State would be left out. Oh well. The Broncos are not done, though and this assumes that Oklahoma State wins out. Notre Dame's loss helped Boise on Saturday as did the Ohio State win in Happy Valley. Had Penn State won, they would have been in great position to earn an at-large bid and the Big Ten would have earned two bids. Now, it looks like the Big Ten will end up with just a single BCS bid. Moving forward, losses by Oklahoma State and Miami down the stretch would significantly improve Boise's chances.

After the jump, a look at this week's Favorites, Contenders, and those that Need Help...

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Rank	Team	Delta
1	Florida
2	Alabama	1
3	Texas	1
4	TCU
5	Cincinnati
6	Georgia Tech	3
7	Boise State	1
8	Pittsburgh	4
9	Iowa	3
10	Miami (Florida)	4
11	Oregon	4
12	Houston	1
13	LSU	2
14	Southern Cal	1
15	Ohio State	2
16	Oklahoma State
17	Penn State	7
18	Arizona
19	Utah	2
20	South Florida	3
21	Wisconsin	3
22	Virginia Tech	3
23	Brigham Young
24	Oregon State
25	Nebraska
Last week's ballot

Rationalizations of my anti-puppy-ism after the break.

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More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Not good at celebrating. Damn good at football.

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The outcome was: solid.  If it wasn't before, that an undefeated Texas will play for the national title is officially a certainty after Iowa's loss to Northwestern today. For Texas, then, the only "outcome" that matters is the scoreboard -- narrow wins, big wins, uneven wins, it's all the same in terms of getting to Pasadena. As such, the Horns' 35-3 win over UCF was plenty solid, enough to maintain the second or third spot in the BCS while waiting for SEC elimination to play out. Win, and they're in.

Beyond the victory, if you're eager to see Colt McCoy win the Heisman Trophy then today's outcome was satisfactory on another level as well. If Malcolm Williams had scored Texas' second touchdown instead of Cody Johnson, McCoy not only would have finished with 3 passing TDs instead of 2, but the reception would have been enough to put his total for the day above the 500-yard mark. As it was, the 470 yards set a school record for a regular season game (single-game record set by Major in the 2001 Holiday Bowl, at 473 yards passing), a gaudy number that -- in a wide open year for the award -- will give a big boost to a name familiar to voters. Neither he nor the offense were perfect on the day, but if over his final four games he puts up numbers anywhere near today's, he'll return to New York once again and have as good a shot as anyone to take the trophy.

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Navy-Notre Dame should be underway on NBC already, while LSU-Alabama (CBS) and Ohio State-Penn State (ABC) kicking off at 2:30 p.m. CT. Complete TV listings and lines posted here.

11/7  UCF Golden Knights
11/14  Baylor Bears
11/21  Kansas Jayhawks
11/26  Texas A&M Aggies
12/3  Big 12 North Champ