The first Junior Day over the weekend failed to produce any commitments, in stark contrast to the past, but that may simply be a part of the changing narrative as the new staff makes changes to approach in recruiting and also a result of the smaller 2013 class that has led to fewer offers going out early.

Of course, the question on the minds of Texas fans perhaps still a little shocked by the new reality of so many recruitments stretching past JD1 is who will join Celina OL/DL Jake Raulerson in the fledgling 2013 class and when those commitments will go down.

Here's a look at the prospects most likely to make a decision in favor of the Longhorns in the near future:

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Black Christmas, version 2.0. In 2011, the Longhorns emerged from the first Junior Day with only five commitments in the 2012 class, including two pledges on the day of the event itself, a number down drastically from the year before, when nine players made gave their verbal commitments to Mack Brown on the day. At the time, I called it Black Christmas, as the day had generally been known in Longhorn recruiting circles as something of a holiday for recruitniks, who could count on a significant portion of the class being in place only days after the previous class signed.

It may be time to officially declare those days gone. Whether it's a result of kids taking more time to make their decisions, taking more visits to become more sure of their eventual pledge, or the result of three strong recruiting classes in previous years leaving a stacked depth chart in front of most 201, the end result is the same. It's even possible that after years of being accused of pressuring kids into early pledges, that Mack Brown is telling recruits to go home and talk over the decision with their family before committing.

Belton TE Durham Smythe supported that claim ($) by telling Horns Nation that during his 30-minute conversation with Brown in his office, he was never pressured to make a pledge. The same sentiments were espoused by Dallas Skyline WR Ra'Shaad Samples, who also told Horns Nation that the Texas coaches wanted him to go home and discuss his decision ($) with his father, who is the coach at Skyline.

So even though the fireworks from previous years weren't present on Sunday, it's hardly cause for concern. The prediction here is that Texas lands two or three commitments before the next Junior Day and has roughly half the class in place by the middle of March, at the latest.

The fact is, even though Mack Brown didn't land any pledges on Sunday, Texas is still in outstanding shape with virtually every target who made it to campus on Sunday.Things definitely aren't the same as they were just two years ago, but it's probably not a bad thing. Just different.

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This is your open thread for the first Texas Junior Day today. Updates as they become available.

Some resources: Offensive needs and numbers, defensive needs and numbers, offensive predictions/percentages, defensive predictions/percentages.

Here's the list of attendees:

• Tyrone Swoopes, Whitewright QB (offered)
  
• Kyle Hicks, Arlington Martin RB (offered)
  
• James White, Pearland Dawson RB (not attending)
  
• Dontre Wilson, DeSoto RB (offered)
  
• Jake Oliver, Dallas Jesuit WR (offered)
  
• Ra'Shaad Samples, Dallas Skyline WR (offered)
  
• Ricky Seals-Jones, Sealy WR/TE (offered)
  
• Durham Smythe, Belton TE (offered)
• Darius James, Harker Heights OL (offered)
• Kent Perkins, Lake Highlands OL (unable to attend)
  
• Ishmael Wilson, Dallas Bishop Dunne OT (re-scheduled to JD2)
• A'Shawn Robinson, Fort Worth Arlington Heights OT
• Jake Raulerson, Celina OL/DL (committed)
• Justin Manning, Dallas Kimball DT (offered)
  
• Vincent Taylor, SA Madison DL (will not attend, car trouble)
• Naashon Hughes, Harker Heights OLB/DE (not offered)
  

Random note -- PCA TE Christian Morgan was in Fayetteville this weekend at an Arkansas Junior Day and told Scout that he nearly committed ($). Window of opportunity for Texas there could be closing quickly.

Feel free to share your thoughts and predictions here.

No Big Boards yet, as I don't feel like messing with the formatting right now, but I'll work on getting them out next week. For now, enjoy some J-Day predictions for the weekend. A couple notes -- the predictions are simply educated guesses in most cases, as are the favorites for most of these kids and the offer is whether they are expected to receive one, but whether they already have one. --Wescott

Justin Manning, Dallas Kimball DT

Offer? Lock

J-Day commitment? 10%

Overall odds: 50%

Favorites: Texas, Oklahoma, LSU

Quick take: Manning has said that he's open early in the process, which is good news for Texas considering his older brother went to Oklahoma. However, it's not clear just how much he likes the Longhorns, so there's some mystery with this one early.

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No Big Boards yet, as I don't feel like messing with the formatting right now, but I'll work on getting them out next week. For now, enjoy some J-Day predictions for the weekend. A couple notes -- the predictions are simply educated guesses in most cases, as are the favorites for most of these kids and the offer is whether they are expected to receive one, but whether they already have one. --Wescott

Tyrone Swoopes, Whitewright QB

Offer? Lock

J-Day commitment? 10%

Overall odds: 55%

Favorites: Texas, TCU, Ohio State, Alabama, Oklahoma

Quick take: Texas is in solid shape to eventually land Swoopes, but his recruitment has quickly gone national in the last few weeks, so the question becomes how much he wants to pursue making those visits and if that pushes his timetable into the football season. If it does, that could impact how Texas chooses to recruit at the position. It also increases the chances of some major ups and downs in his recruitment, including the possibility of schools like Alabama and Ohio State making serious moves.

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With the first Junior Day looming Sunday, it's time to take a look at the needs and numbers Texas will be looking at on the defensive side of the ball in 2013 (the offensive appraisal is here). It's going to be a relatively small class -- somewhere in the range of 18 to 22 or so depending on what type of attrition takes place over the spring and summer months, so the coaching staff will be even more selective in extending offers than they were last season. Here's the position-by-position look:

Defensive end: 2

The targets: Celina's Jake Raulerson (committed) Lawton (OK)'s DJ Ward (undecided), Fort Bend Marshall's Deon Hollins, Jr. (JD2)

The skinny: It's an extremely weak year in-state for pure defensive ends, as there aren't any currently on the radar past the already-committed Raulerson (who could easily be listed as an athlete), meaning that the staff will continue to evaluate the position and could look to another out-of-state prospect other than Ward, with Arizona's Marcus Farria the name that gets thrown around the most.

Hollins is an edge rusher at 6-2, 220 pounds and may project better as a 3-4 OLB. Right now, it seems that he may not even visit, as his JD1 visit has already been pushed back to JD2. If the staff informs the family that Deon isn't on the verge of an offer, it wouldn't be surprising to see him nix the trip entirely.

Fortunately for Texas, the four-man defensive end haul in 2012 seriously reduces the need in 2013, so the staff will be selective and it may not be until the fall that a serious in-state offer candidate emerges. Sharpstown's Reggie Chevis is drawing interest from Alabama as an OLB and is a guy that the staff could seriously evaluate, as well as Lancaster's Daeshon Hall, a lean basketball player who is raw, but possesses excellent athleticism for a 6-7 kid.

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With the first Junior Day looming Sunday, it's time to take a look at the needs and numbers Texas will be looking at on the offensive side of the ball in 2013. It's going to be a relatively small class -- somewhere in the range of 18 to 22 or so depending on what type of attrition takes place over the spring and summer months, so the coaching staff will be even more selective in extending offers than they were last season. Here's the position-by-position look:

Quarterback: 1

Targets: Whitewright's Tyrone Swoopes (JD1), Wichita Falls Rider's JT Barrett (JD2), Southlake Carroll's Kenny Hill (JD2)

The skinny: Despite the JD2 invitation for Hill, this seems like a two-man race between Barrett and Swoopes, with the latter a lock to receive an offer this weekend. After that, it depends on how long Swoopes wants to draw out a national recruitment that now includes Ohio State and Alabama coming strong after the small-school star. If Swoopes does opt to take his time, the 'Horns could move on to Barrett, who seems more likely to commit early.

The fanbase seems relatively split between the more athletically-talented, but less refined Swoopes, and Barrett, who has a lower ceiling, but a higher floor. Nationally, analysts seems split as well, with Rivals ranking Swoopes an early five-star prospect and no. 11 player nationally, while 247Sports has him in the 70s and only the fourth-best dual-threat quarterback in the country.

It's the type of debate that could rage for years, but right now, it seems as if co-offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin is enamored with Swoopes, who spend three days at a summer camp working with Harsin and apparently impressed the co-OC.

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[Update]: This list will continue to grow and change over the coming days, so I'm going to go ahead and just update this post whenever a new name emerges. The most recent additions will be in bold. --Wescott

Even though the Longhorns aren't yet finished with 2012 recruiting with Dorial Green-Beckham and Mario Edwards still on board, as well as the decision still looming whether the staff wants to pursue a replacement in the class for the de-committed Thomas Johnson, the quick turnaround after Signing Day for the February 12th Junior Day means that the names are the prospects who will be attending the single biggest recruiting event for the 2013 class are starting to trickle out.

As usual, none of these players have been officially offered yet, but odds are high that nearly every one will receive an offer if they do indeed make it to campus. The question then becomes which of those players will commit during that weekend and if that number is closer to the four commitments secured last year or the 13 secured the year before.

Here's the current list of confirmed invites:

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