BCS Explained

by awiggo on Oct 15, 2006 8:09 PM CDT in Texas Longhorns Football

The first BCS standings were released earlier today. This is the ninth season using the BCS formula to determine who plays for the national championship. The top two teams at the end of the season will meet in Glendale, Arizona in the BCS National Championship game on January 8th, 2007.

The current formula has three equal parts.

A team's point total in the Harris Interactive Poll as a percentage of total points (max 2850).
A team's point total in the USA Today Coaches Poll as a percentage of total points (max 1575).
An average of six computer polls with the high and low discarded.

Let's take a look at how Texas was ranked 9th with 0.6841 points in the initial poll.

In the Harris poll, Texas is ranked 5th with 2360 total points.
So, the first part of Texas' score is 2360 actual points / 2850 total points = 0.828

In the Coaches poll, Texas is ranked 5th with 1341 total points.
So, the second part of Texas' score is 1341 actual points / 1575 total points = 0.834

The third part is a little more complicated. There are six computers rankings used by the BCS: Anderson/Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Ken Massey, Jeff Sagarin, and Peter Wolfe. Each produces a top 25. The top ranked team is awarded 25 points. The second ranked team is awarded 24 points. This continues until the 25th ranked team is awarded just a single point. If a team is not ranked in the top 25, they are awarded no points. The computer rankings take into account who you beat and where but not by how much.

Texas is currently ranked 17th, 7th, 17th, 15th, 16th and 18th in the six computers. These correspond to 9, 19, 9, 11, 10, and 8 points each. The highest and lowest are thrown out and the rest added together. The total is then divided by a possible 100 points.
So, the last part of Texas' score is 9 + 19 + 9 + 11 + 10 + 8 = 39 / 100 = 0.390

Add up each of the three parts and divide by three.
(0.828 + 0.834 + 0.390) / 3 = 0.6841.

Texas is getting killed by the computer rankings up to this point in the season. This will improve as we play tougher competition. Even though we played Ohio State, our overall strength of schedule is heavily deflated by Sam Houston State, Rice, and North Texas. As long as we continue to win, our computer rankings will improve as we add Nebraska, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M to the mix.

Questions?

--AW--

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Comments

A note on the computers

We should note that we're not getting killed by the computers. We're getting killed by the BCS Computers.

Jeff Sagarin, for example, begrudgingly participates in the BCS with a formula that doesn't take into account margin for victory (BCS requires that computer formulas disregard margin of victory). In the computer formulas that do take into account margin of victory, Texas is ranked very, very highly. #2 in Sagarin, for example.

Anyway, it's a moot point, but one that bothers me immensely.

by Peter Bean on Oct 15, 2006 8:19 PM CDT reply actions

True

That's a very good point. Sagarin's 'PREDICTOR' model defintley is a more accurate gage of future success. None of the computer experts will tell you otherwise. In fact several computer models refused to remove MOV when the BCS told them to in '02, and were replaced.

But for all the talk now, we should remember how much controversy MOV caused when it was around. If you don't remember in 2000 Florida State got a bid over a Miami team which had beaten them, and many thought the computers use of margin of victory (FSU beat 8 teams that year by 25+ points) was the key factor in that 'injustice'. It didn't help when Oklahoma showed them up in the Orange Bowl.

Putting back the margin of victory would not by any stretch of the imagination fix the system.

USC UTHSCSA

by txmed on Oct 15, 2006 8:59 PM CDT reply actions

Not necessarily

But when Jeff Sagarin says, "The rankings I'm submitting to you are less accurate than the ones I have which allow for MOV," then we should take due note.

by Peter Bean on Oct 15, 2006 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions

What if the BCS could use rankings based on MOV...

But not tell anyone. Sure it would be dishonest, but it would cut down on teams running up the score for the sake of the BCS and leave us with more accurate rankings...

I know this is a stupid idea

by aorist9 on Oct 15, 2006 9:23 PM CDT up reply actions

won't make a difference

Teams are already running up the score for style points. Did McCoy really need to be in the game in the 4th quarter? Maybe not. But when you have teams undefeated or with one loss, you have to win in style. So even if the BCS used it and didn't tell anyone, you would still have some coaches who run up the score anyway, while HONEST coaches would use their reserves and win by less. In effect, the ones getting MOV points would be the coaches who just want to run up the score.

by joey @ Burnt Orange Nation on Oct 15, 2006 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions

I did a post on MOV...

View it here.

After doing the reseach, it seems like a stupid way to rank teams to me.

But I don't know, see what you think.

by buildingthedam on Oct 16, 2006 1:15 AM CDT up reply actions

Moving Up

Also, a lot (probably most) of the teams currently ranked ahead of us in the computers will lose at least once more. If Texas keeps winning, it will be a top 5 team in most computers by the end.

And if you look at future strength of schedule, we are projected to be in top 20 for most difficult schedules by the end.

by JohnsonUT on Oct 15, 2006 11:07 PM CDT reply actions

i think

it's going to take a near miracle number of events for Texas to get a whiff of the championship game.

No use wringing our hands, though, win out and see what happens.

by Jason Mayer on Oct 16, 2006 1:05 AM CDT reply actions

WIGGO

what do you think...defend 0ur title?
who has the D like ours?

All the teams w/ 1 loss..?

may we..will we be vindicated

cheer louder next time, would ya

by burntorangenance on Oct 16, 2006 2:31 AM CDT reply actions

The computers....

have improved greatly since last week, though. All in all, at the halfway point, I think we're in decent shape, but still need help.

by orangeblood1 on Oct 16, 2006 9:40 AM CDT reply actions

Notre Dame at #8

Is this the biggest joke in the NCAA?

They barely beat GA Tech, they got destroyed by Michigan, and Michigan State lost their game more so than Notre Dame won it. Now they play Stanford, Navy, Army, Air Force, etc and look good playing the bottom teams in NCAA 1A and they get ranked #8?

What a joke.

I guess we can only hope that Oregon beats USC and then USC beats Notre Dame.

Louisville plays West Virginia so one of them will go away. Florida and Auburn could meet the SEC Champ game so one of them will go away.

by TXBuckeye on Oct 16, 2006 10:02 AM CDT reply actions

Re: Notre Dame

I'm not too worried about their ranking yet. Yes, it's an injustice, but all things considered, they will lose another. Also with their cream puff schedule starting now, their SOS is going to take a major hit. Even if they keep winning until SC, they will go down simply because of who they are playing.

Hook 'em. 'Nuff said.

by GoHorns on Oct 16, 2006 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions

They'll have two teams that go

winless; NC and Stanford. Navy lost their QB and will go in the tank -- and Ga Tech has yet to play Clemson or Georgia (bye, bye quality win). UCLA lost their QB and should tank the rest of the season.

Honestly -- and I mean this with complete objectivity, their SOS may end up lower than a one loss Texas even if they win out.

Watch the meltdown ensue at the end of the season when a 1 loss Big East, SEC or Big 12 team jumps them in the BCS.