Under The Hood: Kansas State Wildcats

by Peter Bean on Nov 9, 2006 10:25 AM CST in Football Comment 10 comments

Time to get to know Saturday evenings opponent with a look under the hood at the Kansas State Wildcats. Analysis to follow statistical overview:

Illinois State - W, 24-23
Florida Atlantic - W, 45-0
Marshall - W, 23-7
Louisville - L, 24-6
@Baylor - L, 17-3
Oklahoma State - W, 31-27
Nebraska - L, 21-3
@Missouri - L, 41-21
Iowa State - W, 31-10
@ Colorado - W, 34-21

Margin of victory: +17 points

Their opponents have a combined record of 31-39 record against Division 1 teams for the season. As another rough guide, Jeff Sagarin rates their schedule as the 64th toughest in Division 1 football.

How is Kansas State performing statistically? Below are tables of the Wilcats' season totals, with national rank in parentheses.

Kansas State By The Numbers: Defense

The next, final, step, is to put those numbers into context. The following chart shows the national rank in total offense and total defense for each of Kansas State's 2006 opponents. Illinois State, a Div 1AA team, is excluded.

Kansas State's Opponents' Positional Ranks

Kansas State By The Numbers: Offense
Rush YPG	Rush YPC	Rush TD	Pass YPG	Pass YPA	Pass TD	QB Rating	Total Offense	Scoring Offense
132.5 (68)	4.48 (30)	13 (49)	190.3 (66)	6.1 (94)	6 (107)	98.61 (112)	322.8 (78)	22.1 (74)

Rush YPG	Rush YPC	Rush TD	Pass YPG	Pass YPA	Pass TD	Total Defense	Scoring Defense
133.1 (56)	3.75 (56)	7 (30)	194.4 (55)	6.5 (41)	15 (86)	327.5 (59)	19.1 (39)

Total Offense Rank	Opponent	Total Defense Rank
100	Florida Atlantic	65
43	Marshall	98
2	Louisville	49
73	Baylor	102
18	Oklahoma St	88
10	Nebraska	73
16	Missouri	37
84	Iowa State	94
104	Colorado	63

So, how's it look for Texas Saturday night?

Pretty good. Kansas State isn't really excellent in any one category, though their pass defense at home (opponent QB rating of 117.6) this season has been noticably better than their pass defense on the road (opponent QB rating of 145.3). Opponents have run the ball reasonably well on Kansas State in both road and home games.

The Wildcats do commit to running the football, and do it pretty well. Perhaps most encouragingly, they ran for 262 yards against Missouri on the road three weeks ago. Wildcat optimists will also note that freshman Josh Freeman had his best game of the season last week in Boulder, in which he completed 15 of his first 16 passes, and 22 of 26 overall (2 TDs, 0 INT).

Still, there doesn't look like much hope for Kansas State in this one. No team has really blown out the Wildcats this year, and the Wildcats do own an impressive win over Oklahoma State, but a win over Texas on Saturday night would be as big an upset as we've seen in college football this season.

For Texas, there appear to be numerous weaknesses to attack. There's certainly room to run, though teams have enjoyed the most scoring success through the air (15 TDs allowed by the Wildcat defense). Might Colt McCoy have another big week? The forecast in Manhattan for Saturday night calls for mild weather, with temperatures in the 40s, so who knows? One wonders if Colt's not "due" for a bad game at some point, but he's shown no signs of slowing down. If he's feeling good again Saturday night, it'll be another long game for Kansas State.

One thing we'll all be watching closely is the Texas run game, which has plateaued in recent weeks. The Wildcats are an average run stopping team, but Texas should easily gain 150-200 yards on the ground if they stick with it. All eyes on Jamaal and Selvin Saturday night.

[Previous "Under The Hood" Articles: Wisconsin, Rutgers]

--PB--

0 recs | Comment 10 comments

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Comments

I'm not buying it

"One wonders if Colt's not "due" for a bad game at some point, but he's shown no signs of slowing down"

A lot of conversation has revolved around the possibility of Colt hitting a "wall". I would buy into that theory if he was being trashed game after game, but for the most part, he's been pretty upright all year. He's taken a few hits, but he's had plenty of time all year. He really shouldn't have too many dings on him that would slow him down.

As long as the beef up front can continue their dominance, and what would lead us to believe otherwise, Colt will make it through the end of the year playing at his current level of greatness!

Hook 'em. 'Nuff said.

by GoHorns on Nov 9, 2006 10:47 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Tend to agree

That's why I put "due" in quotation marks. You'll hear people throw that kind of thing around, but Colt's been awfully consistent.

by Peter Bean on Nov 9, 2006 10:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

how weird is it

that the thing I feel confident about is our freshman quarterback playing really well, and the thing I worry about is the running game.

by hornbone on Nov 9, 2006 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Speed bump

Full steam ahead!!

Cats and dogs sleeping together.

by EYESofBEVO on Nov 9, 2006 10:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Typo

They lost to Nebraska.

by Jason Mayer on Nov 9, 2006 11:04 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

My biggest question is

What will their defense do?
Will they continue with the scouting report from the begining of the season that the way to stop Texas is 8 in the box to stop the run and lots of blitzing to fluster the freshman QB or will they realize that Texas is a balanced attack?
I think a lot of the underperformance from the rushing attack comes from teams stacking 8 in the box and GD having confidence in Colt to take advantage of it.

by Wells on Nov 9, 2006 11:12 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Totally agree

That's what I've been thinking for while. I'm waiting for a team to start respecting Colt and not stacking the box as much. Maybe they know that it would be the end with our talented o-line and backs.

by hornbone on Nov 9, 2006 11:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I could find the quote but frankly I'm much too lazy but, Mack Brown has all but said "Shoot! We figure at some point they are gonna stop stackin 8 in the box and respect Colt but hey, hasn't happened yet so we'll take what we can get"

41-38

by inVINCEable on Nov 9, 2006 3:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Keep on trucking!!

Well Texas better win and win easy or its an absolute embarrassment. KSTATE has no business even keeping this one close and has only beaten one quality opponent(OKLA ST) and that was a fluke in every sense of the word. They had impressive games against Iowa St and Colorado, but who doesnt these days. Those are easily the two most embarrassing teams in this part of the country. So im predicting us to roll these Purple Pussies to the tune of 50-20.

by kansashornsfan on Nov 9, 2006 7:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

We should win going away

my 2 cents

This is a bad KSU team. The only team with a pulse that they've beaten is OkSU, and OkSU is freakish in a Jekyll and Hyde, 5 and 4 kind of way. Their statement game to date is beating a CU team that is plainly terrible at 1 and 9.

If its not 28-6 at half and somewhere near a 45-9 final the horns are not going to get the style points they need to make it to you know where. The horns only have three chances, they'd best take care of the patsy while they have one to take care of.

by losthorn on Nov 10, 2006 10:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs