Community Consensus Project: Top 10 Teams

by Peter Bean on Jul 12, 2006 12:26 PM CDT in Football Comment 60 comments

We're going to try something a little bit new today here on the site. As football season draws near, and as we begin to think about team evaluations more closely, we thought this might be a fun time to start trying to sort out a Burnt Orange Nation consensus Top 10 teams. Here's how it'll work:

Below you'll find a first stab at the Top 10, with a rationale for our selection. Think of it as a starting point for discussion. In the comment section, we urge you to offer your own Top 10, discuss why you think each team deserves to be there, and so on.

One of the things we love about the Blog Poll concept is one of its founding principles - voters are urged to discuss their rankings, others voters' rankings, and be open to others' ideas about how and where teams should be ranked. We thought: why not take that concept right to BON readers? So today, let's work together to try to sort out some sort of consensus Top 10.

Your comment starter:

1. Texas Homerism? Absolutely. Possible? Definitely. I think a loss or two is more probable, but a University of Texas fan site can't pick against the defending champs before we've seen anyone else play. For now, the champs stay on top.

2. USC A lot of people are expecting a fall from the Trojans. The most common arguments are: new quarterback, new running back, brutal schedule. The Trojans do open with three tough tests - at Arkansas, versus Nebraska, and at Arizona. Not only are all three winnable, though - the Trojans should be favored. If they get through the first three games unscathed, they should get through the conference unbeaten until the final week when they play Cal. At that point, though, will you really want to pick against USC? I'm not ready to knock them down just yet.

3. Ohio State With plenty of offensive talent, the only question will be how quickly the new defense can become a strong force. I'm not sure it'll be ready by week two in Austin, but by mid-season, they'll be strong. After Texas, Ohio State may not lose.

4. Auburn There are several SEC teams that look Top 5 worthy. That means they're all gonna beat up on each other, though. With most of their toughest games at home, Auburn's our hedge pick here. Kenny Irons was underrated last year (outside SEC country). If an SEC team makes the BCS title game, Auburn may have the best shot.

5. Oklahoma I think the concerns we've raised are legit, but... they do return a lot of talent at tailback and receiver; if Bomar can improve to even a B+ quarterback, this team will win games. The schedule even looks favorable, which is why I'm sticking 'em up here.

6. Florida I like the Gators to win the SEC East, but man, what a brutal schedule. The Gators return a vicious defense - better than most realize.

7. West Virginia I don't feel comfortable putting them much higher. This is the kind of thing we need to hash out in the comment section. Should we be ranking our teams by schedule strength? What factors should we value most? I want your thoughts.

8. LSU If I trusted Les Miles, this team could be more interesting. But I don't. The ceiling on this team is high, but I don't know whether I trust Miles enough to rank them that way. Thoughts?

9. Iowa/Michigan I think one of these two teams will have a Top 10 season. Readers? You want Tate and Ferentz or Henne and Carr? Did I just answer my own question?

10. Notre Dame Say it with me: "The best team Notre Dame beat last year was Navy." Okay, Michigan wasn't bad, but really, I'm not sure why the Domers are getting so much preseason love. Well, I do, but I'm not buying it. Am I being pessimistic here? I see 2 losses on the schedule, maybe 3.

Other teams to consider? California, Florida State, Miami, Georgia, Louisville, Others?

Readers: Offer me your top 10, but also, try to answer philosophical questions about rankings. Should we be thinking about strength of schedule yet? Or just ranking the ten 'best' teams (as we see it)? Any and all insights welcomed and encouraged.

--PB--

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Comments

philosophy

I don't have a top ten, but I think it should be determined by what you think the best teams are regardless of schedule. If a team plays a tough schedule and wins, it will work itself out and vice versa.

This might sound strange, but I don't think the preseason top ten should reflect what you think it will look like at the end of the year. Just pick the ten best teams in college football. Period.

by Jason Mayer on Jul 12, 2006 8:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Torn

I often get torn between trying to determine 10 best versus how I think the final rankings will look. The latter, of course, is an exercise in futility, which lends credence to your theory - list the 10 best.

Thanks, Jason.

by Peter Bean on Jul 12, 2006 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem with 10 best

Is that we love to go back at the end of the year and look at preseason polls to say how stupid people are. If you put Florida up high because on a neutral field you think they are the better team, and then they get beat up because of their road schedule in the SEC, we will all laugh at you later for listing them so high. Best bet is to use the schedule in their ranks, then qualify it by saying WVU or Louisville could never make it through a SEC schedule.

The Harbinger of Deleted Diaries

by Wells on Jul 12, 2006 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

On WV

I think you are correct in not ranking teams by their schedule. I still plan on ranking WV at #10, which has proved to be an unpopular stance with my fellow Mountaineer fans. But, I just can't bring myself to rank them any higher based on one game (Sugar Bowl). If they go undefeated, they will be there at the end of the year.

I also feel that Ohio St. and Notre Dame are both ranked way too high. Defense has to mean something, and neither team looks to be very stong on the defensive side of the ball. Ohio St. just lost way to many players. They might have the talent waiting in the wings, but leadership has to come from somewhere, and at this point I don't know who will step up for them.

On Auburn, Kenny Irons=Heisman, and they do belong in the top 5.

Lousiville has the potential on offense to be a top 5 team, but there are a ton of questions on defense.

by JohnnyArr on Jul 12, 2006 8:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

rankings

The trouble with strength of schedule is that it's really a subjective judgement. It's open to question whether the stats really tell you anything that's statistically valid on grounds of small sample size and general comparability. So in that regard I think it's completely legitimate to put out an estimate of where you think teams stand prior to the season.

FWIW, I don't have a top ten, for reasons listed above. It's hard to see Texas being serisouly challenged by anyone other than Ohio State and Oklahoma. You get Ohio State early enough that their defense may still be a work in progress. While I am impressed at Adrian Peterson's native talent, he can be shut down if your d-line is keyed in on him. It's no coincidence that Oklahoma only really started to click against Oregon in their Bowl game after Ngata went out inured... and it strains the imagination to see Bhomar being able to compensate if Peterson is being stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage.

As for SC, I think they could post anywhere from 1 - 3 losses, depending on how ready the defense is and how long the offense takes to gel. I'd like to believe that this season is going to be like 2003, when the D was experienced and Leinart was able to lean on Mike Williams while the rest of the offense and o-line bedded in.

However, Arkansas is going to be out for blood after last year's spanking, and if they can establish a running game it could be a long night. If (again, if) Tuitama has his mojo working for Arizona to score enough, their defense is good enough to make it hard for SC to win. And Cal will be trouble if Longshore is at all decent; it's no coincidence that the win last year was a combination of a tough running game for SC combined with a horrid display from Ayoob.

Notre Dame is going to be relying on Weis' evil genius on offense because they aren't going to stopping shit against fast teams. SC proved last year that you can win a lot by scoring faster than the other guys but it catches up with you eventually (41-38).

As for the rest, ah who cares? I'm just looking forward to catching some decent games.

by DC Trojan on Jul 12, 2006 9:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I see 3 losses- AR, AZ and Cal.

I think Peter is being generous in "ranking" USC at #2 on his list. I think the have lost too much to start the season off that high.

The arkansas game will set the tone for the year. Come out strong and teams will shake their heads and wonder how'd he do that. Come out shaky and there will blood in the water.

Sept. can't get here fast enough.

Fight On!

by Paragon SC on Jul 12, 2006 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait

Do you -really- want to bet against this matchup: Pete Carroll versus a brand new offensive coordinator whose previous job was in high school?

If so, go with Arkansas.

by Peter Bean on Jul 12, 2006 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think its that simple

I agree with you about the new OC. he has a daunting task in front of him. But that is only one component.

AR has improved and SC has lost a lot on the offensive side of the ball. I understand that PC has his teams prepared to play but we are talking a whole NEW backfield, a rebuilt O line and playing on the road against a team that you utterly embarrased last year. It might be a bit much to overcome.

I am worried about JDB's back. I understand about modern medicine all too well so I am worried about the pounding he will take.

Also, last years team was a product of the Chow system,with Chow's players, that was tweaked by Kiffin and Sarkissian. This is where we find out if their system works with their players. Don't get me wrong of course I will take the win. But one of the motto's I tend to live by is "Expect the worst and hope for the best". Cynical? yes.

It's just a hunch I have.

Fight On!

by Paragon SC on Jul 12, 2006 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, but

But the matchup I don't like for Arkansas is the USC defense (Carroll, a TON of talent) versus Razorback offense (High School QB, High School O-Coordinator). I can't see the 'Backs scoring enough to win.

by Peter Bean on Jul 12, 2006 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You keep assuming

that the former HS coach will actually be coaching and calling plays.

From what I've heard he is an informal O coordinator, which is why he tried to leave, ala Larry Brown and Danny Manning's dad.

First day of practice
HS Coach: "Coach nutt, when do you want to go over my playbook and start working on practice plans?"

H Nutt: "(cough, choke....ahem) ... you actually think you'll be calling plays BOY?!
"Thanks for giving us Mitch and all, but this isn't Pop Warner anymore"

HS Coach: "I'm taking my playbook and going home....(sniff, sniff)"

I'm applying to Oxford and the Sorbonne. Harvard's my safety

by EYESofBEVO on Jul 12, 2006 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with your point

But while the SC Defense will prabably do as you say. I am not yet convinced that JDB and Washington will pick up where SC left off last year, sans Rose Bowl Loss. I still think chemistry means something.

Fight On!

by Paragon SC on Jul 12, 2006 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Arky

My understanding is that Arkansas is about three degrees from mutiny.

I think theyre about as tired of Houston Nutt as Aggies are of Franchione.

I just dont see Nutt inspiring them enough to beat SC.

Who knows

by the other Andrew on Jul 12, 2006 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

2006 offense

My read of the offense in 2005 was that in the early season Kiffin and Sarkisian were calling a lot of razzle dazzle plays, whereas Chow's system was actually pretty straightforward -- they played the mismatch, adjusted constantly, and threw in the occasional trick play to put the hurt on the opposing defense (e.g. Williams to Leinart TD in the Rose Bowl against Michigan).

Once SC started getting up against better defenses, the razzle dazzle wasn't working, so they settled down into mismatches and simple stuff, and what do you know it worked. At the the risk of obsessing on the ASU game, when the passing game wasn't working they just pounded the sh*t out of ASU on the ground. Nothing fancy about that.

So, if Lane and Kiffin have the stones to keep it simple and set up the run by tormenting opposing defenses with Smith, Turner, and Jarrett... well that could be interesting.

by DC Trojan on Jul 12, 2006 11:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Arizona?

Not Arizona State??

I thought ASU was the real threat this year, with the return of 2 stud QB's. Is Arizona really expected to be that much better?

Patience Restored

by patienthornsfan on Jul 12, 2006 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep AZ...

I think their defense is solid. couple that with a new USC offense and the results could be less than stellar.

I understand about PC's recruiting, he's masterful, but some of these guys don't have any game experience yet.

And I said earlier I want to see what Kiffin and Sarkisian with this new offence.

Call me crazy...

Fight On!

by Paragon SC on Jul 12, 2006 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ASU not the threat.

I agree with Paragon SC. When Arizona manages to get an offense to match their defense, they are going to be tough.

My exhaustive research (5 minutes on ESPN.com) showed that ASU lost in 2002, 2003, and 2004. Last season, ASU had a 21 - 3 lead at the half and still lost by 10. What's interesting is these stats: ASU Passing 347, running 68, total 415; USC passing 258, running 373, total 631. Bugger-all balance for Arizona and once SC started running the ball ASU couldn't score fast enough.

In other words, SC had already lost defensive starters and were vulnerable to the passing game, Leinart was playing with a rung bell, ASU had them on the ropes at home -- and ASU still managed to lose. With SC's defense in potentially better shape this year against the pass, they should be able to buy some time for the SC passing game to work out the kinks...

So yeah, I think that if Tuitama's having a good game, Arizona in Tucson could be a tougher game than ASU at the Colisseum.

by DC Trojan on Jul 12, 2006 11:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think there's only one way to rank them

... and that's based on perceived talent levels of the players returning from last year's squad and the recruits hitting the field. Strength of schedule, home/away schedule, past history, coaching strengths/weaknesses are all speculation at this point.

I agree with Jason, we need to just vote based on who we think the best teams are Day One, with no games played. Here's my list:

tOSU
Texas
USC
Auburn
Cal
OU
LSU
WVU
Michigan
Notre Dame

I would actually not disagree with any order you put the first 4 in, they are that close in terms of talent. tOSU lost a ton of experience on D, Texas lost VY, USC lost Whineart and Bush. Auburn looks loaded, but will they be the 2003 or the 2004 kinda talent? Cal is the same way for me, they have the talent to beat USC this year, but will they?

6-10 also could be put in any order. I'll drink the Bomar kool-aid if he can lead the Sooners to a repeat victory over Oregon. LSU has experience at all the skill positions, but they have a huge liability in their coach, and always seem to stumble early. West Virginia is returning some amazing young players on offense, but have they really played anyone yet? I'll vote for Hart/Henne over Tate this year, and hope the boys regain the spark they had in the Rose Bowl. And Notre Dame has to be on the list because of Brady Quinn, but they have too many questions on D to be in the top 5 at the start of the year.

Patience Restored

by patienthornsfan on Jul 12, 2006 9:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Not that anyone cares

I base my list on performance last year and returning starters.

1 Texas - until someone beats them. Mack has shown constistency and isn't some flash in the pan, so this team deserves respect.

2 Auburn - They will be the most balanced team returning to improve upon a great season last year. I pick them to win it all.

3 LSU - If Saban was still the coach they'd be the consensus #1 running away, but he's not and Lyin Miles is.

4 W. Virg - They are not a fluke and will contend in the Big East, but lose to Louisville. Their only problem is defensive constitency.

5 OSU - The Buckeyes can stay at this spot if they stop calling Troy the next Vince Young. OMG is that getting old. His performance in the Fiesta wasn't even in the same universe as Vince in the Rose. Yet, they are still talented on offense and should be decent on D.

6 USC - They'll finish somewhere in the top 10, so I'll put them here. However, it wouldn't surprise me if this was a "rebuilding year".

7 Louisville - This is low for me, since I think they play Auburn for the MNC. They still have to prove they can play with the big boys and beat Miami and Wisc.

8 OU - Overrated defense, but they still have AD and that keeps them in the top 10.

9 Penn State - This is my sleeper team nobody is giving respect. I think they could be even better on offense this year.

10 Florida - Urban Meyer has shown some history, but the QB controversy will hurt them, ala Simms.

Just missed - Cal, Iowa and FSU

I'm applying to Oxford and the Sorbonne. Harvard's my safety

by EYESofBEVO on Jul 12, 2006 9:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't sell yourself short

we care

Crystal Balls

by MMHorns on Jul 12, 2006 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

One Problem

Sorry to be picky, and while I like your methodology in selecting a top 10, you really cant have two teams from the SEC West as one and two. From a pragmatic standpoint, it just doesn't make sense.
Since the game is at Auburn and JaMarcus only speaks in vowels, LSU looses. Also at Fla and at Tenn, they're lucky if they taste Peaches again this year. Plus Les Miles will find some way to stick it in the wrong hole, and hopefully against Fresno State.

by Tbone Stallone on Jul 12, 2006 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

despite interpretation

Fresno had a solid offense. I don't know if Pinegar returns, but they screened the hell out of us. Bear in mind that they scored as many pts on 'SC's D as UT did. That doesn't make them a contender by any stretch, but I wouldn't count them out of upsetting a BCS contender, even an SEC powerhouse like LSU.

will post my thoughts later.

Fight On! Beat the Razorbacks!

by USCLink on Jul 12, 2006 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comments

When is the last time you saw a preseason top 10 without Miami and Florida State?
I don't mind you putting Texas #1 if you subscribe to the theory that you're on top until someone knocks you off. But it's hard to imagine UT going undefeated again with frosh QBs.
I think this has been said before, but unlike last year, there are no front runners, you can make a case for or against everyone in that Top 10. That's exciting. Of course it could also mean we end the year with a bunch of one or two loss teams and all hell breaks loose with nobody ending up happy.
For me, if you're basing your top 10 on returning starters, how well the team ended the previous year and on this year's schedule, I don't see how you can't put West Virginia #1 or at least in the Top 3. Wrong or right, I don't see them losing a game this year...hopefully Louisville puts up a fight, but I doubt it. I don't think their SOS is legit by any stretch of the means, but we still consider the Big East a legit BCS conference and the win over Georgia will bought them a lot of street cred.

by 54b on Jul 12, 2006 10:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I apparently disagree with everyone.

I think a preseason top-10 should try to predict end-of-season rankings. Strength of schedule, home/away games, coaching quality; yes, these are tenuous concepts, but no more than "talent level." Even if we've seen someone play before, we can't predict their future performance. (Granted, few guys go from great to flopping, but a LOT come out of nowhere to be awesome).

The problem with ranking "the best teams RIGHT NOW" instead of predicting the best at year's end is there's no way to prove right and wrong with "the best teams now," now OR later.

I'll post my top 10 later today.

by Jeff on Jul 12, 2006 10:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Not everyone

But if your preseason top 10 is the way you think the season will end, you might as well give us your preseason Top 2 and stop there. Given the way the BCS works, those are the only two spots that matter anyway.

After the Top 2, it's somewhat subjective who goes to what bowl. Plenty of Top 5 football teams have failed to make it to a BCS bowl while plenty of four-loss teams have gone.

by 54b on Jul 12, 2006 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey now

I definitely wouldn't say the top two spots are the only ones that matter. If a non-NC season is automatically a failure, then there'd be a lot less teams out there and a LOT less fans.

My goal with a preseason top 10 isn't solely to predict the national champ; it's to guess where folks will finish the season. As you said, there's no way to know which bowl everyone will end at, and that throws things off a bit. So, you might even call this a prediction of post-regular season, pre-bowl rankings.

And that's why I was saying schedule matters. Say I thought some MAC team was going to finish the season unscathed, I would rank them pretty high. But, if they were going to play USC, Texas, and OSU this season, I doubt I'd rank them at all, because I'll bet they'd lose a couple of those.

by Jeff on Jul 12, 2006 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Without looking

Tell me who finished 3 through 10 in the final rankings last season...I follow CFB pretty closesly and besides maybe Ohio State at #3 I wouldn't feel all that positive guessing the rest.

I'm not saying the only season that matters is one that ends in a National Championship, I'm simply saying no one remembers the final rankings, but they certainly remember who won the major bowls.

Regardless, my guess is you'll come up with the same teams as everyone else. Why? Because even a two or three loss Power Conference team will still be ranked higher than an unscathed MAC team and even though you might get the odd ball TCU or Utah team cracking the top 10 at season's end, no one gives any credence to them because they most likely got lucky by beating a rebuilding power conference team and playing a cake schedule the rest of the way. I'd say your MAC team example would make more sense if you were trying to guess the final Top 25.

by 54b on Jul 12, 2006 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Without peeking

Penn State finished #3 in both AP and Coaches

I disagree that only the top 2 matter. I was able to get 8 of the top 10 b/c I left of Vtech and Alabama. Not that impressive but good enough. I would agree with you that in the long run, the only two rankings you are going to remember from a year are #1 and #2.

Crystal Balls

by MMHorns on Jul 13, 2006 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Worthless debate

I'm not saying everyone after #1 and #2 doesn't matter...the point I was trying to make, and obviously failing miserably at, is that the poll is a tool.

A tool for the media to use for hype and a tool for the BCS to figure out who gets to play for all the marbles.

The debate was whether your preseason poll should be based on the best teams or predicted final poll of the season. And since the poll is a tool, after the champion is crowned, the final poll is pretty useless for anything other than maybe posterity as the average sports fan only remembers who played in the big one and whether or not their team won their bowl or not. Finishing #2 is pretty memorable too, but after that, who gives a shit? They don't raise any banners for finishing 3rd.

by 54b on Jul 13, 2006 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Too tough to call

I agree with your rationale, but it's next to impossible to actually think logically about where you think they will end up. For example, in an above comment, Auburn and LSU were 3,4. That makes perfect sense. But they will play each other, so it's highly unlikely that will happen. You would almost have to guess your top 15 or so and try to guess their records based on schedule.

If you have the time and energy to do that, be my guest. For now, I'll go with who I think are the 10 best teams.

1. UT - Until we're beat, we follow in the USC logic: The greatest team ever!
2a. OSU - They're good. It should be a great game on Sept 9th.
2b. USC - Still loaded with talent
2c. Auburn - Could another 2004 be in the works?

Miami - My only question is can they put an entire year together for once?
Oklahoma - Glaring weakneses, but really, who doesn't?
Georgia - Mark Richt is a solid, under-rated coach.
Cal - If the QB situation works out, they could easily upset USC.
West VA. - They could wind up undefeated if for nothing else the schedule.
Baylor - Not really, but I'm just not sold on anyone else in the top 10. 10-25 is going to be a mad scramble to the finish. Just like 1-4.

by GoHorns on Jul 12, 2006 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How is Iowa a Top 10 team

After losing the heart and soul of their defense? They are a Top 25 team, no question, but methinks that nutball Tate gets a little too much credit.

by CrossCyed on Jul 12, 2006 1:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I know you have all been waiting for these:

When I made this I used who I thought was best, their schedule, blind conjecture, black magic and differential equations (I knew I had to take that class for a reason).

1. Auburn - I think they have a good chance of running the table in the SEC. Seem to be the team with the smallest questions marks.

2. Texas - The loss of VY makes me not put them #1, but I see a lot of ball control offence with a stable of running backs and low scoring wins created by stifling defenses.

3. West Virginia - The Big East could send WV to the national championship without playing anyone good. A tragedy, but more fodder for the push for playoffs.

4. USC - Losing the big 3 from their offence hurts their chances of making it through undefeated, but Carol has had some great recruiting in the past couple of years, and looking at the schedule, I think they could be 8-0, but then have to finish with Oregon, Cal and ND at home and then at the Rose Bowl against UCLA.

5. Ohio State - Lost too many defenders to be ranked higher, but have plenty of offensive firepower. Problem is Tressel has always seems to win by pounding you with defense and then not losing with his offence. I wonder if he can be creative enough with his team's strengths this year to win with offence.

6. Florida St - I don't think they are the 6th best team in the country, but someone is going to have to come out of the ACC on top, and they don't have to play VA Tech.

7. Georgia - I think they will play Auburn in the SEC championship, although I think they will still take some lumps playing in the SEC.

8. Oklahoma - If they can get past Oregon, a one loss season is a good possibility, but they don't play Nebraska, so beating Oregon and Tech and losing to Texas does not allow them to climb much higher than this.

9. Michigan - No one likes Lloyd Carr, but he puts solid teams out every year. I think they can beat ND, who might be smelling their own farts after Ga Tech and Penn State and may think they have the game won before it starts. After that the mid-season "Michagan lost to who?" big ten loss and finishing up with a loss at Ohio State for a respectable 2 loss season. Which will be followed by calls for Carr's job.

10. Notre Dame - I promised myself I would not do this. I started this list with every intention of not having ND in the top 10. But faced with the possibility of adding a second Pac-10/ACC team or a Les Miles coached team, add to that the fact I am too lazy to find a mid-major sleeper pick, and mix in some love from the press, and rounding out the top ten is an at least 2 loss, if not more, Notre Dame.

The Harbinger of Deleted Diaries

by Wells on Jul 12, 2006 2:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

"smelling their own farts"

Is that a Wells-ism for "full of themselves"?

Patience Restored

by patienthornsfan on Jul 12, 2006 3:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It is from South Park

</object>

The Harbinger of Deleted Diaries

by Wells on Jul 12, 2006 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Someone tell me how to get rid of that crap

The Harbinger of Deleted Diaries

by Wells on Jul 12, 2006 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That show is genius

The smug cloud started from George Clooney's Academy Award acceptance speech.

by Horange on Jul 12, 2006 4:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Pretty decent Top 10

I won't argue with Texas at #1 because they are the champs until they get knocked off, but don't expect them to go undefeated. I wonder why everyone isn't talking about the loss of Huff at safety. He anchored the defense that was in the shadows of Vince Young. That coupled with the loss of VY is reason enough for me to believe that they lose 2 this year (ohio state and oklahoma).

I think USC is right up there too, more likely at #3 or #4. The "whole, NEW backfield" isn't working for me. They might be new, but we have all seen what Carrol can do with freshman, not to mention the deepest team in the country talent wise. While I don't see USC averaging 500 yards of offense a game, they WILL move the ball with the nation's best receiver tandem. Maybe 1-2 losses this season.

I like Notre Dame where they are because they are their hype is the result of the media and the disappointing opponents they played last year. Quinn will be good, but without a solid defense, I ain't buying it. I like West Virginia and LSU in the top 10 as well, but the SEC is a damn good conference and I don't think we'll see another undefeated Auburn team or SEC team for that matter. And I like Cal because they boast Forsett and Marshawn Lynch, who might be the best running back in the country this year, but then again Ayoob might find a way to screw that up.

by joey on Jul 12, 2006 6:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Karma

Call it a dumb hunch, but I think Auburn will play for the national championship. In a season where there isn't a front runner and the majority of the contenders will finish with at least one loss, I think Auburn's SOS will get them over the hump.

I won't say that USC and OU didn't deserve to play for the 2004 title, but something is inherently wrong when an SEC team goes undefeated and doesn't play for the title. I just have too much respect for that conference.

When we talk about the chances of most teams, we always look at their schedule and say, "if they can just win these two or three key games, they'll go." But with SEC teams, it always seems like they have to win four or five key games.

Auburn will get the same SEC teams at home that they did in 2004. They've got a complete team and damn good coach, I think they're due.

by 54b on Jul 12, 2006 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right about Karma

Call it hokey. But the football gods giveth and the football gods taketh away.

I think Karma is another reason for 41-38. It would not surprise me if other SC players bought into the hype of "the greatest team ever" and had a little too much swagger in their walk. That does not bode well for attitude and changes your head, ala Leinart.

Don't get me wrong its not like UT was some pop warner team that pulled a major upset. But its hard not see how all the outside stuff could have messed with their heads.

As for Auburn, they're my sleeper team to win it all. and now is there chance, without a clearcut #1 they can make a real run to the top.

Fight On!

by Paragon SC on Jul 13, 2006 5:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

they're due

Seems about right.

BTW, I would rather have seen SC play Auburn over OU. As much as I enjoyed watching OU trying not to cry, a competitive game would have been better. I suspect SC would still have won it, but still...

by DC Trojan on Jul 13, 2006 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Posted mine

http://crosscyed.blogspot.com

by CrossCyed on Jul 12, 2006 10:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

thoughts

I think a poll is where you feel a team should be ranked, based on what they have accomplished. Not quite who is best because a four loss Florida might be better than an undefeated TCU, but is not ranked in front of them, because going undefeated in any schedule is pretty tough TCU gets extra consideration. All things being equal all teams would simply be ranked by record. I believe Teams should be ranked by a combination of expectation (how you think they will finish) and talent (how good is the team, although talent my be too simplistic a word).
For example the top four or five teams could all be number one, but what is your expectation? If you think Texas beats both OU and tOSU, you should probably have them #1. If you think OU loses to both Oregon and Texas they should likely move out of your top five. Although we may all believe WV may go undefeated, I would not rank them ahead of a one-loss tOSU, because a tOSU would have more quality wins.

by billb on Jul 13, 2006 8:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The Perfect BCS Storm

Hypo...

W. Virginia goes undefeated, but by seasons end hasn't played anybody with less than 2 losses
Texas (OU), tOSU(Texas), Notre Dame (Michigan), USC (Notre Dame) , OU (Oregon), Auburn (LSU), LSU (Florida), Florida (Auburn), Oregon (USC), Michigan (tOSU) ...all end the season with one (loss) to another team in the Top 10, actually Top 11 as WVU will be undefeated and in there some where

Who goes to the big game?

Even though it's highly unlikely anyting like this could happen, it is conceivable that WVU could go undefeated and there be two or three other marquee teams end the season with a loss to a quality opponent.

Before you simply dismiss WVU on their SOS, remember that we put a huge premium on wins (losses will always be the biggest point droppers in the BCS formula) and when all the pundits scream that WVU isn't legit, the Mountaineers will simply point to the Orange Bowl last year and say kiss our asses.

Honestly, I don't see WVU going undefeated. They have a target on their back now and they'll know going into the season that one slip and it's over. That's hard to play under that kind of pressure when you're a marginally good team, even if your schedule isn't that tough.

If I had to guess, I'm betting we're heading for something similar to the 2004 season and we'll end the season with three 1-loss teams.

by 54b on Jul 13, 2006 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's why these rankings matter

As dumb as preseason rankings matter, in your perfect shit-storm, jostling for position will be wild and, to some degree, affected by how these teams were ranked going in.

The Winners: Texas (narrative helps; defending champs), Notre Dame (golden boys), tOSU (early loss in your scenario, plus high preseason rank).

The Losers: USC (late loss), Oregon (too low of a preseason ranking), Michigan (late loss).

West Virginia would be the real ceiling fan, though. Their patsy-ass schedule would include exactly one quality win - Louisville. The clamoring to include a one-loss team above them would be deafening.

The BCS might implode in your scenario, 54b.

I hope it happens. Well, not the loss to OU. But all the rest...

by Peter Bean on Jul 13, 2006 8:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would love to see that happen

It would be perfect to see that happen and then have WVU get destroyed by UT in the national championship. Then each one of your one losses who won their bowl game would be saying they should be champions considering they played the better team in the bowl. One thing about that Orange Bowl. WVU did not impress me that much. The jumped out early because Georgia though they had the game won by showing up. But once Georgia got over the shock, they were killing WVU. If the game had lasted 5 more minutes, Georgia would have won. Another quarter and it would not have been close.

The Harbinger of Deleted Diaries

by Wells on Jul 13, 2006 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's going to happen

Even though my scenario is highly unlikely, even if one other team finishes undefeated along with WVU, you still have the same shit storm because when you think about being #2 at the end of the regular season is just as good as being #1. And so if Texas finishes undefeated (please) and so does WVU, but a couple of the other teams above finish with one loss, they're still going to raise hell.

13-0 Texas vs. 12-1 Auburn here we come.

BTW, Wells, I agree with you to a point about WVU over Georgia, but if we refuse to take shit off the USC guys who say that they would have won if Leinart had a few more seconds on the clock or VY's knew had been called down, then I'm giving WVU full credit for the Orange Bowl win. You either win or you don't. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand granades.

by 54b on Jul 13, 2006 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which SC Guys??

Not me. and I don't think Link or DC Trojan did.

And if some SC guy did say it they are on another planet. Just want to set the record straight.

Fight On!

by Paragon SC on Jul 13, 2006 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You all are exempt and exonerated...

just like OJ.

by 54b on Jul 13, 2006 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

uh

thanks?

Fight On! Beat the Razorbacks!

by USCLink on Jul 13, 2006 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OUCH!!

Simpson or Mayo?

Fight On!

by Paragon SC on Jul 13, 2006 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who?

You mean that guy who was in Towering Inferno?

by DC Trojan on Jul 13, 2006 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Officer Nordberg

by 54b on Jul 13, 2006 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

for me

It would depend on who they lost to and where. tOSU losing ot Texas in Austin is not as bad as losing at home to say Michigan (disclaimer I do not know if tOSU plays at UM or home), personally I do not think WV would be worthy of the title game, although they would probably get in. I think that the other team would likely be Texas, as they are the defending champ, but it could be media's darling ND. But that is not who I would necessarily choose.

by billb on Jul 13, 2006 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The hypo wasn't about...

who among the other 1-loss teams might be most worthy to be #2 over WVU, it was simply that no matter what WVU does next year short of beating everyone on their schedule 50-0, as long as one of the other teams above finishes with one loss, no matter who they lose to, they're going to complain like hell because their SOS will still be off the charts compared with that of WVU's.

If tOSU beats UT and Michigan but somehow freakishly loses to an Iowa or Michigan State, they're still going to lobby for going over an undefeated WVU because they've played and won much tougher games.

by 54b on Jul 13, 2006 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your right

but screw WV, I don't own any couches in that area for them to burn.

Hypothetically it would be a mess but really most year's it is, last year was the exception, not the rule. Even when there is a relatively cut and dried game like 2003, Miami still has something to bitch about.

by billb on Jul 13, 2006 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last Year

I thought all that talk about the Texas-USC game being the best ever was just the beer talking, but it really is going to be tough to top.

It's in the Rose Bowl
Traditional Powerhouses
Undisputed #1 vs #2, no controversy
2 Heisman Trophy Winners vs. Mr. ESPY (might as well call it the ES-VY)
Game went down to the wire, lots of scoring, but still some memorable defensive plays
The nearest competition would be the tOSU win over Miami because it went into OT, but that didn't include the same cast of characters

It's hard to fathom last year's Rose Bowl ever being topped. I think the only way it could have been considered better is if VY strolled into the end zone with no time left on the clock or if Leinart had completed that last ball for TD with no time left (bite my tonue).

It's a debate for a later date, but still fun to think about.

by 54b on Jul 13, 2006 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs