Prediction Revision

by Peter Bean on Jul 24, 2006 12:30 PM CDT in Texas Longhorns Football

I noted on Friday that I would be revising my methodology for the prediction parts of each game preview. With Buckeye fans feeling that I'm getting a bit too smarmy with my Longhorns, this seems like a good time to make the change.

The problem with the current model is that I'm forecasting an outcome, and a precise one, at that, by taking a shot at the score. It's a fool's errand, on several levels.

For one thing, I'm not going to be predicting any losses at this point. Why would I? We haven't lost in ages and we haven't seen anyone play yet. I believe we're as likely - probably more likely - to lose a game, or even two, as we are to run the table. But with the possibility of going undefeated well within the bounds of reason, I'm not likely to predict a specific loss.

Second, we don't have nearly enough data yet to being doing anything as precise as picking scores. It's just unrealistic, and uninformative.

Retired. For now.

With that in mind, we'll revise the predictions from here on out to outline the different ways the game could play out. "Texas will win if: blah blah. Texas will lose if: blah blah." By covering the range of likely scenarios, good and bad, we can offer something of substantive value.

--PB--

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Do Your Thing

Don't listen to the whiny Buckeye fans. Just call 'em like you see them. If you start playing it safe this will become the most boring blog not related to Michigan. They are delusional if they think they aren't going to see a drop off after losing nine players on defense.

Here's the bottom line: They lost to you last year at home. Now they go on the road. You are the defending national champs. They have lost nine guys on defense and their stud WR on offense. There is no reason to think their new starters are any better than yours.

PSUMike Hail to the Lion!

by PSUMike on Jul 24, 2006 3:47 PM CDT reply actions

Maybe I'm spoiled

and a hardcore homer, but I can't imagine picking against 'SC. I am wholly convinced we'll never lose ever again (just like I was before the Rose Bowl). Yes its denial, but since you guys almost exactly the same position we were in at the beginning of last year, I can't think of what would convince you to pick against UT.

You guys are at the very top of the college football world: longest active winning streak, national championship, awesome recruiting class...let it ride.

And its never to early to predict a score...it just makes you a bigger target after the game. Besides, it makes stuff like Block U's claim that they're going to beat UCLA that much more entertaining.

Fight On! Beat the Razorbacks!

by USCLink on Jul 24, 2006 7:16 PM CDT reply actions