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How Tough Is Defending Your Title?

Just how hard is it to repeat as national champion these days? As Texas takes its 20 game winning streak into the 2006 season, I thought I?d take a look at how the top teams have fared a year after their national championship season.

A few notes about this brief study before we continue.

First, I had to pick a metric and stick with it. As such, we?ll use the Associated Press Final Season Poll. With apologies to LSU, the BCS hasn?t? been around forever, so this will have to do. It?s a minor point, anyway.

Second, this study is confined to results since 1980. Going further back doesn?t make as much sense for a number of reasons, the most important being that the game and football landscape has changed quite a bit since 30 years ago. With those qualifiers in mind, let?s take a look.

The table below lists the year, the national champion for that year, and the team?s final poll position in the following year. (NR indicates the team did not finish ranked in the AP Top 20 the following year.)

National Champions
Year National Champ Next Year
1980 Georgia 6
1981 Clemson 8
1982 Penn State NR
1983 Miami 18
1984 BYU 16
1985 Oklahoma 3
1986 Penn State NR
1987 Miami 2
1988 Notre Dame 2
1989 Miami 3
1990 Colorado 20
1991 Miami 3
1992 Alabama 14
1993 Florida St. 4
1994 Nebraska 1
1995 Nebraska 6
1996 Florida 4
1997 Michigan 12
1998 Tennessee 9
1999 Florida St. 5
2000 Oklahoma 6
2001 Miami 2
2002 Ohio St. 4
2003 USC 1
2004 USC 2
2005 Texas ???

A few quick thoughts:

*For starters, repeating is clearly not easy. Only the 1994-95 Nebraska Cornhuskers and the 2003-04 USC Trojans were able to pull it off. The latter, of course, was not crowned BCS champion in 2003.

*The average finish of a national champion the following year is 6.04.

*Miami has been awfully good the last 25 or so years.

It?s been 20 games since Texas has felt the sting of losing, but history suggests we?re due for one this year. If Vince Young were returning, the story might be different, but with a freshman behind center, defending the title will be quite the challenge. I?m certainly not going to predict yet that we won?t, but as history tells us, the road to repeating these days is tremendously difficult.

--PB--

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true
but according to this list, the odds are 1/10.  That isn't terrible, especially considering the talent you guys have.  Other than VY and Huff, you don't lose anyone too key (to my knowlegde, correct me if I'm wrong).  Its not outside the realm of possibility.  Besides, you may have the next Matt Leinart-esque QB to follow up with the resurgence to the spotlight Carson Palmer/VY qb.  SC and UT have been running more or less parallel the last three or four years, so you guys should have another good year coming if that's any indication.
Fight On! Beat the Razorbacks!

by USCLink on Jul 6, 2006 12:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

1/13 odds
right?
Crystal Balls

by MMHorns on Jul 6, 2006 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

whoops
lol...yeah, something like that.  For some reason, I was thinking 1980-2000.  Oh well.
Fight On! Beat the Razorbacks!

by USCLink on Jul 6, 2006 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What caught my eye
was that penn state seems to take the next year off after winning the title. One two eams end up unranked the following year and BOTH are penn st.

by billb on Jul 6, 2006 12:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

2005 ---- Texas ------------------ ?
You could add just one more column for Texas.

Damn Miami is a powerhouse.  6 titles in that time span with the next closest being 2 - NU, FSU, OU, PSU, USC.  I may have missed something, but that is just incredible.

As Peter mentioned, it is quite arbitrary to set a starting point for any analysis, but 1980 seems as good as any other.  I may have leaned toward 1986 covering the last 20 years, so I could ignore that 85 OU championship.

Crystal Balls

by MMHorns on Jul 6, 2006 12:49 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Beat tOSU
and I think you run the table.  Even with you QB issues that game sets the tone for how it played out foe the year.

If McCoy or Snead has a good game that would solidify who takes the helm. If they have a bad game and you still win it will make it bit trickier to see which way it breaks for you.

I think the drop off for SC will be 3 losses- Ark. Cal and AZ. I still think we beat ND at Home and UCLA still has a lot of questions.

Anyway it will be fun to watch. Coach Brown's attitude seams more happy-go-lucky so he will keep it lite in tha face of the pressure ahead.

just my .02 cents.

Fight On!

by Paragon SC on Jul 6, 2006 12:52 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think UT
gets tagged somewhere, but not against tOSU.  Probably a let down game after OU or something.  The aggies might be dangerous, especially looking at last season's game.  UT had them overmatched at every position on every play, and the aggies were still in it late in the 4th.

I don't think 'SC drops more than 2 tho.  I don't think Arksansas got enough better and we got enough worse for that one to go.  Cal and Arizona are going to be sketchy tho.

Fight On! Beat the Razorbacks!

by USCLink on Jul 6, 2006 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kyle Field is a rough place
But UT is hosting the Aggies this year at DKR. That pushes UT over, in my opinion.

by chief on Jul 6, 2006 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

we might lose two this year
And I'd still call it a successful season.  Will I be any less disappointed after those losses?  No.  Will I still be a grump on Saturday night/ Sunday morning after those losses?  Ask my wife, she knows.  Fortunately I was never grumpy this past fall.

We might beat tOSU this year, but we'll need superior leadership if we have any games where we have trouble getting out of the gate.  The leadership could be there, I just dont know who it'll be.  Maybe Robison, Studdard, Selvin?  No clue.

by the other Andrew on Jul 6, 2006 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okam on D
Has been an incredible leader in the 7 on 7 drills.  I'm not sure who the leader on the offense is, but VY also was a leader for both sides.  Maybe Okam is taking on that role?

by GoHorns on Jul 6, 2006 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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