Home Court Advantage

by awiggo on Jan 28, 2007 10:44 PM CST in Texas Longhorns Basketball

Kansas is going to win the Big 12 because of the home court. Yes, they have a tremendous basketball team, but the scheduling advantage they have will be too much to overcome for even the best team in the Big 12 South. Unlike in football, there are no split standings by division but schedules are made based on divisions. Teams play the other five teams in their division twice (once at home and once on the road) and each of the six teams in the other division once (either on the road or at home).

Even with Kansas in the North, there is no question the South is the better division. Four of the six teams in the South have legitimate hopes of an NCAA bid. Only two teams (Kansas and Kansas State) look to be in line for a berth from the North. Kansas also benefits by playing the three best teams in the South in Lawrence and traveling to play the three worst teams in the South on the road.

How big an advantage is home court? HUGE!

Through three weeks of conference play, home teams are 26-11 (70%). Of those eleven losses by home teams, the home team was favored in only two of them. Missouri lost at home to Kansas State on January 13th as a 3.5 point favorite and Missouri also lost at home to Iowa State on January 6th as an 11 point favorite. The road team was favored in the nine other games lost by a home team in conference play.

What does this mean? It means that the home team wins unless the road team is significantly better, thus favored. It means that the top six teams, who are also road favorites, are the only ones stealing road wins in conference play. It also means there have been very few upsets so far in Big 12 play. The top six teams in the Big 12 are 18-1 (95%) at home in conference play.

Texas A&M (14-0), Oklahoma State (13-0), and Texas (11-0) are all perfect this season at home. Each of them is also riding a significant home court winning streak stretching back to last season. The Horns have won 22 straight at home (tied for 6th best in the country), the Aggies have won 19 straight (tied for 8th best), and the Cowboys have won 16 straight (tied for 11th best).

Every team in the conference has a winning record at home this season overall except for Colorado. Including Colorado, Big 12 teams are 122-20 (86%). Excluding Colorado's awful 4-7 mark at home, Big 12 teams are 118-13 (90%) at home.

The top contenders must defend their home courts to have any shot at the conference title because everyone else is doing it. If the top four teams all win their home games that means that Texas, Oklahoma State, and A&M all go 2-2 against each other and 0-1 against Kansas. Even if they were perfect elsewhere (which A&M hasn't been already), the three South contenders can do no better than 13-3. Kansas on the other hand would have to drop two more road game to get to 13-3 and, even then, would hold the tiebreaker over any South team achieving that same mark (having beaten them at home). The Jayhawks would have to lose two games from these remaining ones on the road: Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Not exactly murderer's row.

More upsets are certainly likely, and it would be premature to crown the Jayhawks in January, but with two wins this week they will be well on their way to another Big 12 title.

--AW--

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Comments

I agree

Kansas schedule is just too favorable compared to the south. The only way they could possibly lose the Big 12 is if they lose to both Texas and A&M at home.

You talk about tiebreaker over a south team. I thought the Big 12 did not do tiebreakers. Last year we beat Kansas head to head, but it was a split conference championship still. The tiebreaker is only for determining the conference tourney seeds.

by JohnsonUT on Jan 29, 2007 8:38 AM CST reply actions

True

I think you're right, the Big 12 doesn't do tiebreakers for conference championships. However, if two teams are tied for first place and they played during the year, then the team that won that game should be conference champs (in my opinion) and would earn the #1 seed in the Big 12 tourney (see Texas last year).

--AW--

by awiggo on Jan 29, 2007 8:54 AM CST up reply actions

Look no further than Tech...

for proof of the home court advantage.

In the last few weeks, Tech beat both Kansas and A&M at home (two Top 10 teams) and lost to Baylor and Mizzou on the road (two teams who last saw the Top 10 when the FBI put them in it because of off the court "mishaps")

And if you're playing a Big XII team on the road and it's ESPN's Big Monday game, forget about it...@A&M next week is going to be ugly, no doubt about it. The fighting farmers will be in rare form that night.

by 54b on Jan 29, 2007 9:52 AM CST reply actions

Colorado

Leave it to the old alma mater to bring the rest of the conference down. At least Ricardo will be gone next year, too bad the Athletic Department does not have any money to get anybody good.

by Wells on Jan 29, 2007 10:31 AM CST reply actions

Surprising

I'm surprised at UT's HC win streak. Of course we have great teams, but does anyone else agree that the atmosphere at the Irwin center is one of the worst in college basketball? The student seating is horrendous, but even if we gave them a preferable location, I'm not even sure they would fill it out. Its sad that we have some of the best talent in the country, yet we can't give them an added advantage with a rowdy atmosphere.

by roywilliamsisgod on Jan 29, 2007 10:38 AM CST reply actions

Yeah, but...

Kansas had to travel to OSU, A&M, and UT last year. They took their lumps in Austin but were good enough to win at the other two schools. If you want to say KU got lucky that OSU was bad last year you could say that. I could say that KU had a slight disadvantage last year because UT didn't come to Allen Fieldhouse to give KU the chance to make up that game in the standings.

And either way it will be balanced out next year: Kansas will travel to each of those 3 schools without the return trip which would be useful to level out the standings. If all 4 teams take care of business at home next year KU would go 13-3 at best and the 3 South teams would have to go 5-3 on the road each to be 13-3.

by Chalmersfan on Jan 29, 2007 6:04 PM CST reply actions

Not balanced

this year and won't be even next year unless the North is better. Kansas State is improving but there is a pretty good chance that only KU goes to the NCAA tournament this year from the North. Iowa State, Nebraska, and Colorado are awful. The only hope for balance between the divisions is Missouri gets much better under Mike Anderson.

It may be time to start doing away with the divisions in basketball. Each team would play ever other team once (11 games) and then five others a second time. They would rotate the schedules so that you play every team but one twice every two years. This would theoretically allow for more balance.

--AW--

by awiggo on Jan 29, 2007 8:14 PM CST up reply actions

I realize that North < South

Let's say hypothetically that KU loses at each of the 3 South teams next year, early in conference play, and spends the rest of the year playing catchup. While they would have a favorable schedule to play catchup with, they are at a disadvantage because with no return games they have to win out and get help from the bottom 8 teams in the league.

So while next year the South will still be the South and the North will still be the North, KU won't control their own destiny like they do this year if you figure that the top teams will protect homecourt. This will probably be reflected in Phog Blog's REAL Standings at the beginning of conference play next year.

by Chalmersfan on Jan 29, 2007 10:13 PM CST up reply actions

Respectfully Disagree

Let's say next year that teams protect their home courts. This is, of course, likely and certainly not out of the question. So, KU drops games on the road to the three best teams in the South (A&M, Texas, and OSU), while also protecting their home court and demolishing the other five teams in the North both at home and on the road. They could easily go 13-3 without a single signficant road victory.

Now, the South teams all have to play the other top teams twice each. Again, let's say they split, winning at home while losing on the road. That is two losses. The South teams must also play Tech twice and OU twice, both of which figure to be as good if not better than any team in the North, save Kansas. Texas, A&M, and OSU would have to sweep OU and Tech to have any shot at an outright title. Losing just once to either of those two teams in four matchups would drop them to 13-3 and therefore tied with KU.

The difference would be in how they got to 13-3. KU would have won eight home games against five bad North teams and the three bottom teams in the South and five road games against the bad North teams. A South team, let's say Texas, would have beaten KU, OSU, A&M at home and probably at least Tech on the road.

Going 13-3 from the North and 13-3 in the South is far from the same thing.

Until the divisions are more equal, KU will continue to hold a significant advantage no matter if they play this year's schedule or next year's.

It is certainly possible that Missouri and Kansas State improve in the North and OU and Tech don't make it to the next level or Gillespie leaves A&M and they fall back but right now there is no question that four of the top six teams in the conference are in the South and four of the worst six are in the North.

--AW--

by awiggo on Jan 29, 2007 10:25 PM CST up reply actions