Under The Hood: Nebraska at Texas
by Peter Bean on Oct 24, 2007 4:31 PM CDT
in Football
7 comments
The game doesn't quite mean as much as many of us anticipated it would when the season got underway, but as Mack Brown noted on Monday, it's still Nebraska. We know the Huskers are in a freefall right now, but exactly how bad has it been? Let's take a look.
Nebraska margin of victory: -5.3 points
Texas margin of victory: +15.3 points
Nebraska's opponents have a combined record of: 29-18
Texas' opponents have a combined record of: 23-25
As another rough guide, Jeff Sagarin lists Nebraska's strength of schedule as 22nd most difficult in the country and Texas' as 81st.
How are these two teams performing statistically? Below are tables of each team's season totals, with national rank in parentheses.
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 151.6 (66) | 4.06 (60) | 13 (46) | 270.4 (29) | 7.4 (33) | 13 (45) | 133.1 (36) | 422.0 (34) | 26.6 (63) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 164.5 (47) | 4.34 (49) | 16 (25) | 273.3 (27) | 7.7 (24) | 15 (34) | 138.6 (25) | 437.8 (26) | 34.6 (28) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rate | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 227.4 (115) | 5.12 (109) | 22 (117) | 230.0 (70) | 6.9 (66) | 10 (45) | 122.0 (58) | 457.4 (105) | 31.9 (91) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rate | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89.4 (11) | 2.75 (12) | 7 (19) | 216.6 (54) | 5.8 (18) | 7 (13) | 106.2 (19) | 306.0 (16) | 19.3 (23) |
The final step is to put those numbers into context. The following chart shows the national rank in total offense and total defense for each of Nebraska and Texas' 2007 opponents.Nebraska-Texas Opponents' Unit Rankings
| Total Offense Rank | NU Opponent | Total Defense Rank | -- | Total Offense Rank | Texas Opponent | Total Defense Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
Nevada |
|
-- |
|
Ark. St. |
|
|
|
@Wake Forest |
|
-- |
|
TCU |
|
|
|
USC |
|
-- |
|
@UCF |
|
|
|
Ball State |
|
-- |
|
Rice |
|
|
|
Iowa State |
|
-- |
|
Kansas State |
|
|
|
@Missouri |
|
-- |
|
Oklahoma |
|
|
|
Oklahoma State |
|
-- |
|
@Iowa State |
|
|
|
Texas A&M |
|
-- |
|
@Baylor |
|
|
|
Average |
|
-- |
|
Average |
|
Analysis
*I knew Nebraska had been struggling on defense, but this is ridiculous. Over 450 yards allowed per game, 227 on the ground. I didn't pay too much attention to Nebraska's offseason attrition, but the 2006 defense was ranked 37th against the run. What in the hell happened?
*Part of the problem appears to be the players quitting on head coach Bill Callahan. I'll be talking with Corn Nation about that later today, but based on what's been said there and elsewhere, it appears the Huskers have more or less given up on the coach and the season.
*It is worth noting that Nebraska's faced some of college football's better offenses this season. Remarkably, they pretty well controlled a Nevada team which has given everyone else they've faced fits. The slide seems to have started when USC came to town.
*Once more, the numbers pretty clearly indicate how poor Texas' level of competition has been this year. The 'Horns have faced two decent teams this year - Kansas State and Oklahoma - losing both times. I'm not terribly surprised to see Arkansas State faring reasonably well statistically, either. That team was far better than most of us anticipated.
*On paper, this one's easy to call. The game's in Austin, Texas has performed dramatically better than the Huskers in 2007, albeit against softer competition. Throw in the mess surrounding Bill Callahan and it's tough to imagine Texas losing this game. Which probably means that we'll be in a dogfight to the end.
--PB--
0 recs |
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Before their game...
...with Missouri, I was telling people that Nebraska had won their last game of this season. Mentally, that team is done. Poor old Sam Keller. He and Maurice Purify are probably the only guys that are still trying. Of course they have some decent $$'s at stake.
This is another pathetic team without the talent to stretch our abilities. Now playing OU-Lite in Stillwater struck fear in my heart before season's start. Now that we've improved less than expected, I'm even more concerned about next weekend.
by HornChamps on Oct 24, 2007 6:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
you're right
we are done. it's really sad.
I wonder about keller. It's not like he isn't trying, but his one-year audition for the NFL isn't going very well either.
Corn Nation - Graduating more of our players than you are!
by cornnation on Oct 25, 2007 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What the game may tell us about the Ags
If NU is truly in freefall, we should have no trouble with them on Saturday (assuming we don't play against ourselves), and I won't worry too much about the Ags' big win in Lincoln. Yet the stats show that the Huskers match up with us fairly well, except (critically) on defense. If it's a real contest, I will be a bit more worried about an Aggie ascendance. I am most concerned about Stillwater standing in the way of our winning out. I don't want to be concerned about College Station.
by NYCHorn on Oct 25, 2007 7:45 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Re:
By the way, PB, just wanted to let you know how much I'm loving the rash of posts on the site this week (or as the guys at KSK might refer to it as, the BON bukkake). Law school's gotta take up a lot of your days, but I'm sure I speak for the readers of this site that your time and effort dedicated to maintaining BON are much appreciated.
by jc25 on Oct 25, 2007 10:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Many thanks jc
I actually like being busy, but still, it can be trying at times. Notes like this really help. Many thanks.
by Peter Bean on Oct 25, 2007 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Black-Scholes
Whenever I see your BS signature I get nightmares. When I took Corporate Finance in law school the guy who normally taught it was away and a professor from the B-school taught the class. Yikes - no dumbed down lawyer version. Think Scott Derry trying to defend Vince. Fortunately there was a respectable curve.
by duras on Oct 25, 2007 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two things happend
First - never replace your entire defensive line and you're defensive line coach in the same season.
Second - Somewhere along the line, our coaches, our players, stopped talking to one another or something and then decided that they'd just live out the rest of the season being angry at each other.
Corn Nation - Graduating more of our players than you are!
by cornnation on Oct 25, 2007 2:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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