Texas Basketball Report 2.3
For those curious what my life is like these days, consider that I'm taking a break from studying for law exams... and using that time to write this week's Texas Basketball Report. I don't know which is sadder - that I have so little free time, or that I'm happy to spend it writing the TBR. Judge as you will.
But this column - this site! - stops for no one and no thing. I've got my Torts exam on Friday, which means the TBR moves up to Thursday. This week we're taking a look at the two players whose improvement has outside observers gushing with praise - Damion James and Connor Atchley.
Texas fans can clearly see the improvement just watching the two play, but I was curious how much improvement the two were enjoying production-wise. With that question in mind, I charted each of James' and Atchley's 2006-07 and 2007-08 (to date) numbers, followed by the increase or decrease in production. It's not the most systematic look at the two, as there are both counting and rate statistics in the chart, but included at the bottom is each player's minutes per game. For the counting stats, we can easily eyeball where the increased production is due to more minutes on the floor and where the two are simply improved.
(Note, as well, that these numbers are not adjusted for tempo, either. So far this season, Texas has played at a tempo averaging about 5 fewer possessions per 40 minutes than 2006-07. Among several of the categories below, James' and Atchley's numbers would be even more impressive if we controlled for possessions/40 minutes.)
Update [2007-12-15 14:0:5 by HornsFan]: An eagle-eye reader noted that I hadn't carried a one in my spreadsheet, leading to the confounding 40% 2PT FG% for Connor Atchley. I noted in the commentary below that I hadn't noticed Atchley struggling with two point shots... and it turns out he hasn't. Anyhow, the new chart reflects Connor's correct shooting percentage, which is terrific. The commentary is also revised.
Let's quickly walk through each category before a few concluding thoughts:
Minutes/Game Both Atchley and James are playing more this season, but especially Atchley. Though Texas fans knew Atchley's minutes were going to increase, there was some understandable concern about giving him 25-30 minutes per game. He's more than justified that thus far, however, with his much improved play. I've been enormously impressed.
Points/Game Neither James nor Atchley are giving Texas empty minutes scoring-wise, with each handily exceeding their increased percentage of playing time with even more scoring. This is a huge help in replacing Kevin Durant's scoring.
Rebounds/Game Though Atchley is rebounding at about the same rate as he was a year ago, James has stepped up his game to a new level. Because Kevin Durant was such a prolific scorer, it was easy to forget how many rebounds he sucked up each game. James is helping fuel the post-KD transition in that regard, as well.
Assists/Turnovers It's no accident that Texas is tops in the nation in turnover percentage on offense, coughing up the ball on only 14% of their possessions. This team is even better than last year's at not giving up possessions.
2 Point FG% Interestingly, both players have taken slight dips in their 2PT FG% so far this year. James' difference is statistically insignificant, but Connor's only hit 29 of his 47 two point attempts thus far. I haven't noticed this on the court during the games, but it's interesting to see in the season box score. REVISED: Connor has improved in this area as well, which comports much better with what we've observed thus far. He's getting out ahead on fast breaks, finishing around the rim, and doing a solid job of being in a good spot for Augustin's passes.
3 Point FG% James is 4-6 on the year; Connor 12 of 21. Atchley's numbers do give me reason to pause: teams are going to be more and more keyed in on him as a three point shooter as the scouting report catches up to his improvement. Will he be as significant a contributor if teams start playing him to stretch? As for James, he's doing most of his damage inside the arc, selectively taking his 20-foot jumpers. I couldn't be more impressed with his offensive development.
Points Per Shot James is still scoring about as efficiently as he did a year ago; Connor's improvement from beyond the arc has helped push up his points per shot to a terrific rate. I don't think that's sustainable, though. Connor needs to be ready to diversify as team's adjust.
Blocks Per Game The big surprise to me here is that Atchley was as prolific blocking shots last year as he has been this year. It had seemed to me like he was blocking more shots per game this year, but he's really just playing more minutes. He was an outstanding shot blocker last season, as well.
Free Throw % Both players are improved from a season ago (at least so far), but neither are doing much in the way of drawing fouls.
Free Throw Attempts/Game This isn't just a problem for these two - it's a problem for the team as a whole. Texas ranks 285th in the nation in trips to the free throw line per possession. Though that rate doesn't hurt a team that's shot as well as this Texas team has (especially behind the three point line), it's assured to be problematic in at least a couple games down the line. Texas is as dependent on shooting the ball well as any top team in the country.
CONCLUSIONS If Rick Barnes had to give out a Most Improved Award right now, he'd have a damn hard time making a choice between these two. (For a bonus fun thought of the day, consider: AJ Abrams and DJ Augustin have taken big steps forward this year, too.) Among the two being discussed today, though I think James' improvement is more important to Texas' ability to be an elite team from here forward, the big step up from Atchley has been, and will be, tremendously valuable, too.
In my mind, Damion James' ability to sustain this improvement is more critical to Texas because good coaches are going to spend as much defensive capital as they dare on disrupting DJ Augustin's game. This year that's becoming a truly tall order, but even so, Augustin's going to face teams who throw everything but the kitchen sink at getting the ball out of his hands. And Damion James is the only other player on this Longhorn squad who can get a good look almost any time he wants it. He's quick, he has good height, expanded range, and tremendous vertical game. No longer just a dunker/athlete, James can get off 12 foot jumpers over his defender more or less when he wants to. That's going to be something Texas needs when facing a defense that can harass Augustin and Abrams.
Like, for example, UCLA...
That's all for this week. It's been fun watching this entire team develop from a season ago, but these two in particular have stood out with their improvements, if for no other reason than it caught most - if not all - of us by surprise.
--PB--
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Great Report
PB, as a very recent law grad myself, I have to commend your commitment to this site during finals! Very impressive. Keep up the great hoops reporting, after all, we are now a basketball school...right?
by hornshoops on Dec 12, 2007 11:59 PM CST 0 recs
We're certainly getting there...
If Rick wins a couple Big 12 titles... or wins a national championship...
Well, we may never be a basketball school with most of the fanbase, but Rick Barnes has certainly transformed this program from a fringe afterthought to an established power in the game.
As someone who's been attending Horns hoops games since he was in diapers, I couldn't be happier about it. To be where we are is fantastic; if Rick can take us up the next notch, it'd be beyond remarkable.
by PB @ BON on
Dec 13, 2007 12:13 AM CST
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"basketball school"
I don't think Texas can ever be a basketball school. Do you consider Florida a basketball school? They won two national championships in a row and still their fan base care much more about Football.
by Cyrus on
Dec 13, 2007 12:36 AM CST
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Nah
It's just a running joke...
But fun for us hoops fans. Just in time to transition from football.
by PB @ BON on
Dec 13, 2007 12:41 AM CST
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And an appropriate dig...
...at our underachieving gridiron...uh...heroes? What?
by duras on
Dec 13, 2007 10:14 AM CST
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This is still Texas, after all
It's true, football will always rule this state. But the way this basketball team is looking, there could be more hardwood hype this year than their was gridiron glory - without Kevin Durant, mind you.
by TheAustinSportsReport on
Dec 13, 2007 12:53 AM CST
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Awesome!
Welcome to the law school! Now you get to fill up a TX-lawblog and a TX-sportsblog spot on the blogroll. How efficient.
Hopefully you got a good draw with your profs :)
by godelmetric on Dec 13, 2007 1:23 AM CST 0 recs
Great stuff!
Atchley has been impressing me with his number of blocks and the one time I got to see him in person he impressed with his athleticism (he can run and jump). It is really surprising that Atchley is clearly blocking shots better than james.
What is surprising is that Atchley does not get more rebounds. He is getting a little more than 1 rebounds per 6 minutes (pretty poor for a center or power forward). Most of the other big guy horns tend to get about a rebound per 3 minutes (that is an approximation based on my scanning of box scores but is not a season long estimate (except for James)). given that Atchley hustles, can jump, is pretty quick for a big guy, he should be able to improve his rebounding. got any ideas why he is under performing as a rebounder?
One thing your numbers don't capture (understandably) is the trend within the season. James has been scoring a bunch of points per game at least since the UCLA game.
by Kafka on Dec 13, 2007 9:01 AM CST 0 recs
Come on, PB...
One thing your numbers don't capture (understandably) is the trend within the season.
You didn't take the standard deviation of anything. That is totally weak. It's not like you're in law school or some shit. (j/j, Kafka)
Keep up the good work, PB. Just remember, after finals, there's a Holiday Bowl against a top 10 caliber team. Plus, since a lot of tickets are being donated to the real military, there's a strong chance that there will be no Aggies at the game.
by Horn Brain on
Dec 13, 2007 9:19 AM CST
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Part of it Connor's Limited rebounding
is when he and DJ are running the high pick and roll, he usually stay up top to spot up for a three and clear out the lane for DJ, leaving him out of position for rebounds.
by Wells on
Dec 13, 2007 12:01 PM CST
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Good point; that helps explain offensive
rebounding limitations but most rebounds are snagged by the defensive team. On D, Atchley plays center in the zone and usually guards the center when the horns play man to man (so he should be in good rebounding position on D most of the time).
I think somebody mentioned that his hands are not great (that he touches a lot of balls that he does not end up securing). I don't know if this is true. I guess this is one of those things to watch for to understand what is happening.
by Kafka on
Dec 13, 2007 12:09 PM CST
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I thought about D
when I wrote that, but did not add it because I dont have his defensive rebounding stats. I don't know if it is bad hands or just bad habits, but he does tend to bat at the ball instead of grabbing it. It does work sometimes if he can hit the ball to a teammate, allowing us to get a rebound he may not have been able to bring down clean. Other times he is just creating more chances for the opposing team by not securing the ball himself.
by Wells on
Dec 13, 2007 12:28 PM CST
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these were just my thoughts after the UCLA game
I made that observation about Connor's rebounding after the UCLA game and it's remained about the same despite how impressively well he's playing:
by Blitzburgh on
Dec 13, 2007 2:36 PM CST
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James improvement
I hope James can continue to have 600+% rate of improvement on his 3 point percentage. We'd be legit final 4 contenders next year if he is hitting about 400% of his 3s.
by PatronSaint on Dec 13, 2007 10:14 AM CST 0 recs
Connor's shot blocking
I think last year I looked up Connor's blocks per minute played and they were the best on the team and better than any single season that Klotz had.
by Wells on Dec 13, 2007 12:09 PM CST 0 recs
He sneaks up on people
He is a much more athletic guy than Klotz was. He is pretty skinny so it is hard for him to hold position underneath (which hurts his rebounding) but when it comes to providing weak side support, he is good because he is tall, quick, and can jump. I am guessing his athleticism surprises some people.
by Kafka on
Dec 13, 2007 12:16 PM CST
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Yeah
I think the reason I used Klotz was because someone said he would never be as good as even Klotz.
by Wells on
Dec 13, 2007 12:29 PM CST
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Atchley gets some Statesman Love
Taking their cue from PB, once again.
But this is the quote I really love:
"Coach said that when Connor got here, guys wouldn't take him seriously," Pittman said. "At practice, they knew they could score on him whenever they wanted. Now he's the ace, a leader. Coach says we have to try to do what Connor does."
Who woulda thought???
by patienthornsfan on Dec 15, 2007 3:38 AM CST 0 recs













