Texas Basketball Report 2.2
Texas has been so good thus far that there simply hasn't been much room to gripe. When you blow out New Mexico State and Tennessee on a neutral court, then steal a true road win at Pauley Pavilion... well, the press clippings are gonna be glowing. Deservedly so.
We've also mentioned that at this rate, Texas could very well find itself in contention for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. That's a long way from now, but as we discussed on Tuesday, it's a goal worth keeping an eye on - even early in the season.
As several have noted, however, this team is not without flaws. Nor, they argue, should we believe that Rick has taken a gigantic leap forward as a coach in just one offseason. I agree with both points. Even though Rick and his team deserve every bit of positive attention they've received thus far, there's a lot of basketball left to be played and the competition will continue to improve as the season wears on. So must we.
With that in mind, I thought it might be interesting to compare Texas' profile with that of last year's NCAA champs, the Florida Gators. Though there's no single profile that a champion must have, what the Gators accomplished over the last two seasons is certainly something to strive for. At the least, we can look at the things they did well that Texas is not (and vice versa). Presumably, a team which can excel in many of the same areas as such a complete champion is going to be in good shape.
As always, we prefer rate over counting stats, and turn to Ken Pomeroy for the data:
Offensively, there’s a lot to like so far. It’s difficult to imagine that Texas can maintain this level of efficiency throughout the season, but even 90% of this performance would be outstanding. The only worrisome offensive indicator is the infrequency with which Texas gets to the foul line, but there’s some good news here, as well: outside Florida, none of last year’s Final Four participants (Georgetown, Ohio State, UCLA) finished in the top 100 in trips to the charity stripe/possession. It doesn’t appear to be much of a barrier to success.
Defensively... well, we’re nothing like the 2007 Gators. We’ve discussed this before, but Texas is in a tough spot defensively, not big or deep enough to play man-to-man for 40 minutes, but not long enough on the perimeter to adequately defend the three pointer in a zone. That didn’t hurt us against a poor shooting team like UCLA, but Texas has and will pay a price against teams that can drain the long jumper.
Adjustments going forward? Offensively, I’m just thrilled with the improvements I’ve seen this season. We’re using AJ Abrams like Reggie Miller and Rip Hamilton, running him around the half court, making his defender chase, and setting double screens to create shots. At the very least, he occupies an opposing defender full time. More importantly, he’s hitting his two point shots much, much better than a year ago, diversifying his scoring arsenal, and greatly improving his worth when the three point shot isn’t there. Connor Atchley is doing a fantastic job of playing the high post: he’s a good enough shooter that you have to defend him 19 feet from the basket, and he’s a good enough passer that we can run plays through him.
Rick’s also doing a good job with Augustin, and as good as he’s been, I think he’s got room to improve. Remember, it’s only December, and this group is still learning to play with one another. I think we’ll continue to see fewer "clear out for DJ" plays and more of the offensive sets that get everyone involved. And yet, having a guy like Augustin is so valuable because, when nothing else is working, spacing the floor and letting him create is still an option.
On defense, we are what we are on the perimeter, but the addition of Gary Johnson should help the rotation some. It’s not clear that there’s much we can do to overcome the vulnerability to perimeter shooting, as Augustin and Abrams are going to be out on the floor 90% of the time. They’re just going to have to rotate hard, get their hands up, and harass as best they can. The three point shot is a scary, scary equalizer, but rare is the team that’s deadly both inside and out. If Texas is getting torched by an opponent from the perimeter, Rick can always go man to man and force that team to earn the points inside.
All in all, this is the best position I can remember Rick Barnes being in at this point in the season. Tough tests await the ‘Horns, but it’s so far, so good. Houston area fans need to take a couple hours on Saturday and head down to the Toyota Center to catch this team take on Rice. You’ll be glad you did.
--PB—
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Wow!
This team mostly played together last year (4 of the starters returned and the only new starter played quite a bit last year) so it is not surprising that they are operating rather smoothly so early in the season.
Godd point about the low rate of getting to the foul line, I think it is more important than you do. I think it reflects the fact that Texas scores a lot from the outside rather than getting the ball inside to the big guys where fouls happen a lot more. This might change a lot when/if Gary Johnson starts playing a bunch of minutes. Presumably the horns' defense, rebounding, inside scoring, and foul shot opportunities would all jump up quite a bit. The horns could play really tough man to man D the whole game because they would have an 8 man rotation.
The most intriguing thing about the horns' defense to me is their ability to press. I will be interested to see if they can force KU into some turnovers.
I do think the horns will run into a few teams that have at least one big guy inside who can score and at least one guy outside who can shoot the 3. I think using a matchup zone can help a bunch in this case.
The biggest difference for AJ this year is that he can fake the 3 and either shoot the step in jumper or take the ball to the bucket. I am guessing that he improves more this year because he can do the hard part (shooting the 3 with a quick release) so he just needs to improve on the easier step in shot. Getting all the way to the rim can be tough (and painful) for such a small guy.
Having a center who can hit the 3 leaves the middle wide open for horns' drivers (a very big deal).
The horns seemed to be running an offense much more in the last game against NTU than against UCLA so I'm optimistic about improvement in the half court sets (it is still early in the season after all so it is to be expected that Rick will be adding more plays as the season progresses).
My son, grandson, and I will all be at the toyota center on Saturday.
by Kafka on Dec 7, 2007 1:54 PM CST 0 recs
Good points
As far as the fouls down low. I think they will also increase as Wingman and Chap learn there way around better. Once teams start anticipating Damion's jumpshot, he may be able to draw more fouls with the pump fake step-in.
I like the AJ comparison to Rip H. in the post. Would it be effective to run some plays for AJ that get him 12-14 footers as well as the three ball shots.
Keep in mind that UCLA has a really good defense.
By the looks of these numbers, if we want to win a championship our defense needs to improve. Pretty amazing we are #1 in Steal %. All that press work on North Texas, NM State and UC Davis.
You are right, PB. Rick has this team firing on all cylinders really early in the year, and it is exciting.
Ken has us going 28-3 in the regular season, with the percentages in our favor for every game as of now. FL was 26-5 in the regular season last year.
by jimmer on
Dec 7, 2007 2:17 PM CST
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Improvement
I don't think there is much point in running plays for AJ that get him 12-14 foot jumpers. Normally he hits the 3 point shot quite well and shooting 3's (if you can hit them) really improves the spacing on the floor. If he can reliably hit the jump shot after the fake of the three and taking one step in, that will force defenders to slow down when they close in on him.
I would like to see many more pick and rolls with James (and Gary Johnson when/if he is available) setting the picks. Super athletic guys like James are really great when it comes to catching the pass off the pick and roll and he will probably be great at finishing, too. That should also increase the number of fouls against the horns.
I see the main role offensively for wingman and Chapman this year as setting picks off the ball (and rebounding, of course). The horns have too many weapons for these guys to get any plays called for them. also the horns don't want the middle clogged up by these guys.
I will be amazed if the horns go 28-3 in the regular season, that would be spectacular. It is tough to win on the road in college bball.
My hopes for Pittman are going down a bit because he just can't jump much. I hope his jumping is hampered by injury and actually improves this year as he gets healthier. I have huge hopes for the guy because he has such amazing hands but he has to get more athletic before he gets much playing time. If injuries are not slowing him down, then he may need to lose more weight (maybe play at 260 rather than 300).
by Kafka on
Dec 7, 2007 2:51 PM CST
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Things we can/will improve upon
Great analysis.
I think there are a few things we will definitely improve upon over the season, and you're right in the fact that we definitely will have to as opponents will adjust to us.
Perimeter D: We've improved in this a lot since last year, especially AJ, though he's still a little bit of a liability. It's also worth noting that the improvement of AJ, DJ, Damion James, Atchley conditioning wise has been phenomenal.
Ball movement: I agree, constantly running screen and rolls with DJ has worked, but if we rely on him to much we leave ourselves open for an upset any time he has a bad game (I don't expect that to happen often though).
Post presence on offense: Gary Johnson January 2
Freshman production: Freshmen usually improve the most. Wangmene will improve over the course of the year, as well as Chapman.
Atchley's hook shot: It can't get any worse.
Pittman: I wanted to see more out of him this year. He's battled early season injuries, but hopefully he'll be an impact player by season's end. A player with his ability can change the course of a basketball game (if only for a couple of minutes).
by longhorn00 on Dec 7, 2007 2:16 PM CST 0 recs
Improvements
The horns can most easily improve their post offense by running screen and rolls where james is the screener because he is so athletic. Better to leave Atchley outside so that he can shoot the 3 if his man helps out. this approach preserves floor spacing while getting the ball to our most athletic big man (James).
Wangmene and Chapman will improve over the course of the year but I doubt the horns will run too many plays for them (they will need to get offensive rebounds to score).
Atchley is much more useful outside shooting 3's than shooting hook shots because it takes Atchley's man outside where it will be difficult for him to rebound and it leaves the middle open for penetration by the quicker horns.
Pittman needs to get a lot more athletic before he can be an impact player. I hope it is the injuries and not his bulk that are reducing his explosiveness. It may be that he needs to lose more weight before he can jump/run well enough to be a force inside. Even Michael Jordan had to reconfigure his body some when he came back from his stint playing pro baseball.
by Kafka on
Dec 7, 2007 3:06 PM CST
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Florida = apples; Texas = oranges
I don't see any similarities at all. Their defense was stellar. Ours is mediocre. Their strength was their frontcourt. Ours is our backcourt.
As far as comparing UT to other previous great teams, I can't even think of one. This UT team is so different than what I'm used to seeing in previous years. Run and gun. Organized chaos. Hustle and flow.
College basketball hasn't seen a team like this, and that's why I'm intrigued.
by goingforthecorner on Dec 7, 2007 11:03 PM CST 0 recs
Texas vs Rice
In another search of the bottom of the listings at DirecTV, I discovered that the Rice game is on channel 610.
by Caradoc on Dec 8, 2007 9:27 AM CST 0 recs










