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Texas Basketball Report

If it's Thursday, it's time for another Texas Basketball Report. Last week's entry focused on what I defined as the Pittman Problem, though I may have chosen the wrong week to bring up the topic.

Texas went 2-0 against Baylor and Texas Tech this week, but neither team had what we could legitimately consider a serious frontcourt presence. Both teams are guard-oriented squads who lack the interior strength to take advantage of Texas' Achilles heel.

What we saw, though, was that Texas has the personnel and firepower to take out guard-heavy teams. Texas has struggled, however, with bigger, more physical teams. Yesterday, I responded to one of Wells' questions about rebounding margin by posting game by game margins in rebounding for the 'Horns. Not surprisingly, in each of Texas' five losses, the Horns have been outrebounded (Michigan State, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Villanova), or were even in rebounding margin (Tennessee). Only twice (Arkansas and Baylor - both close wins in Austin) has Texas won depite being outrebounded for the game.

The data fits the story we've been telling for some time now: Texas must crash the boards with alacrity. Damion James and Connor have to "play big," or Texas is reduced to a one-man rebounding team (Durant) and vulnerable to far too many one and done possessions on offense or extra scoring chances for opponents when the 'Horns are on defense.

What's this mean for the schedule ahead? For starters, Texas needs to be aggressive on the boards on Saturday afternoon when Kansas State comes to town. Looking at the Big 12 conference statistics (conf. games only), the Wildcats are third in the league in rebounding margin and do an excellent job of limiting opponents to only one shot. Looking further ahead, Kansas and Texas A&M both look like they'll present significant problems for Texas in the rebounding department. Both the game in Lawrence and the road trip to College Station are certainly projected losses at this time, while the Aggie visit to Austin falls more realistically in the 'tossup' category.

As fun as it is to watch Kevin Durant dominate night in and night out, the development of the team as a whole is more critical. If recent trends are indicative of where this team is headed, the news is looking brighter than it was after the mess in Philadelphia. Atchley and James are giving Texas valuable minutes on both ends of the floor - Texas will be relying on both not to wilt as Texas takes on more physical conference opponents. The Horns should also be able to steal some valuable minutes with Dexter Pittman when they play more physical, slow-the-tempo teams.

The last key ingredient for the remainder of the season is DJ Augustin, who Texas really needs to score 10-15 points each night. When Augustin's not contributing to the team as a scorer, Texas becomes too one-dimensional (Durant) and relies excessively on AJ Abrams, who needs to be used as a role player (shooting threes off screens). Smart teams will start spending more of their defensive capital on taking Augustin out of his game. Durant's going to get his points and rebounds - there's no doubting that - but to the extent that opponents can keep Augustin from being effective with his penetration, they can slow down Texas' potent offense.

Next up for the Horns: Saturday vs Kansas State in Austin, and Monday evening in College Station to take on Texas A&M.

--PB--

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Interesting stat on AJ
AJ is shooting 41% from the field, but is shooting 45% from three point land.
You take the threes out of the field goal percentage and he is shooting 36% from within the arc.   Lets say that 15 of those shots are gimmie layups.  That leaves him at 16 of 70 or 23%.
He needs to stop shoot the running floater, at 22% I would rather him be shooting guarded threes or push for the layup, at least that presents the opportunity to get fouled.

by Wells on Feb 1, 2007 12:26 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

... or get blocked.
Starting in January 2007, just another Limey Longhorn

by patienthornsfan on Feb 1, 2007 12:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey PHF
how was the Back Page last night?  decent group of fans?

by billyzane on Feb 1, 2007 1:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not just decent...
... downright rowdy!  Especially once KD got untracked in the second half.  And when he hit that monster jam at the end of the game on the totally unselfish feed from DJ, you woulda thought it was the Rose Bowl all over again.

Thanks for the tip.

Now, can you find me one like that in London?

Starting in January 2007, just another Limey Longhorn

by patienthornsfan on Feb 1, 2007 3:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

monday night
if last night's chaos at the ticket-pull-that-wasn't is any indicator, monday night will be crazy.

it's Big Monday, baby!

Dicky V will be there and will only know Kevin Durant's name. Meanwhile the game will come down to whether or not AJ and other longhorns will be able to produce against the A&M defense.

by the12thManchild on Feb 1, 2007 1:15 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Expectations
I'm trying to lower my expectations for that game.

The crowd is going to be BONKERS, for one thing. For another, we don't matchup that well with your team to begin with.

And, damnit, y'all have a good coach now. It was so much more fun when Tony Barrone was roaming the sidelines.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Feb 1, 2007 1:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Now all the fun goes to...
the fans of the teams who oppose the Memphis Grizzlies.  

by BrooklynHorn on Feb 1, 2007 1:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I feel guilty for thinking this
but I'm starting to believe that Texas is a more complete team with AJ on the bench -- and using him as a role player.

The Texas defense is just so much better (IMO, I could be totally wrong) without him on the floor.

I love what he brings in the form of speed, a second PG, spot up shooting, clutch plays, etc -- but he can't rebound, turns it over and is easily the worst defender on the team (Ok, going too far, JD Lewis is the worst).
He also tends to jack it up instead of dribbling or dishing for an easier shot.

Anyway, I feel guilty cuz I love the guy, but they are much better on D without him on the floor.

Cats and dogs sleeping together.

by EYESofBEVO on Feb 1, 2007 1:42 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

You are right about the D
AJ is too short to not be quick and have quick hands on D.

The on thing he brings to the O is range.  Defenses have to constantly know where he is or he will light them up, also his man has to cover him from half court in, keeping the defender from doubling up on Durant.

by Wells on Feb 1, 2007 1:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Torn
PB has written about the Pittman problem: we aren't able to play as uptempo with him on the floor, yet he adds a rebounding force and an interior presence that we are sorely lacking at times.

We could also write about the Abrams problem: with AJ on the floor we have a streay and deadly outside shooter that prevent defenses from collapsing on Augustin's drives, yet our defense is awful in both man and in a 2-3 zone with AJ on the floor. We are also tremdously undersized with Abrams and Augustin on the floor at the same time.

--AW--

by awiggo on Feb 1, 2007 2:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I couldn't help but notice
how effective the longer arms were on defense against Tech last night. Even on the perimeter Tech just couldn't get the shots they wanted.
The difference between AJ on the floor and on the bench was like night and day.

I just don't know how Rick fixes this. He must be seeing the same thing.

Cats and dogs sleeping together.

by EYESofBEVO on Feb 1, 2007 2:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

We discussed this at length...
... back in 2006, once PJ and D-Gib announced they were going to the NBA.  I don't think any of us thought at that time that Barnes would regularly start both DJ and AJ because of the size issue.  As it turns out, DJ is just way too good to not start, and AJ turned into a scoring machine that you can't keep on the bench.

I think we all hoped Connor would develop into a starter during the off-season, but that didn't happen.  Nor was there a significant improvement from JD or Winder.  So we are what we are, and we start who we start, and so far the results are better than I personally was expecting.  I think Barnes just has to ride these horses as far as they'll take him this season.

Starting in January 2007, just another Limey Longhorn

by patienthornsfan on Feb 1, 2007 3:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

AJ on the bench
KD
DJ
Connor
Mason
James

sub: Pittman, AJ, JD (a slower, less talented AJ)

Now that Hill is out, we only have Pittman to go with. If we are trying to run, then we have to sub in small (back to our original line-up). Any foul trouble that we get in w/ our bigs becomes a real issue. Obviously, depth was already an issue, but if Barnes wants to go big then we almost have to slow down our game, right?

Right now, when we sub we either stay small w/ JD or bring in Atchley to go big.

So, does starting w/ Atchley create more substitution problems than w/ AJ? Or stay the same?

by jimmer on Feb 1, 2007 2:39 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think a lot of thought needs to go into
a decision to bench our second leading scorer.
So far AJ has been responsible for almost 20% of our scoring.
Second to only KD, who is responsible for 30%.

I know his d hurts us, but replacing him with Connor and we are missing out on a lot of offense.

by Wells on Feb 1, 2007 2:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So,
if you could figure out how many points the opponents score per possession w/Connor and w/AJ in the game, and then how many more points AJ accounts for than Connor that should answer the question. at least statistically. thanks in advance, wellsy.

Not advocating benching AJ, but if Rick did, he would be a great weapon off the bench.

Personally, I think AJ would have such a mental and emotional problem w/ coming off the bench that it could potentially ruin his confidence for the season.

by jimmer on Feb 1, 2007 7:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

AJ = Ben Gordon with the Bulls
Gordon is the same player. He's an undersized two gaurd, great shooter, athletic, provides a spark and a bulk of the scoring.
But, he gets used by taller gaurds, doesn't get back on D -- and hasn't learned how to move through screens. He's a bad defender on a defense 1st team.

Gordon comes off the bench and it works well for the Bulls. I'm not saying AJ should do the same, but it could possibly work.

Cats and dogs sleeping together.

by EYESofBEVO on Feb 1, 2007 2:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Gordon
I haven't seen him much since he turned pro but Abrams is not even in the same league Gordon was in college. Gordon could knock down the three and had a nice dribble drive and played decent defense. At this point in his career, Abrams is one-demensional catch and shoot bomber.

Okafor was a huge part of their title team but Gordon was right there too. Without Ben there is no way UConn wins the title.

Comparing Abrams favorably to Gordon is a little much IMO.

--AW--

by awiggo on Feb 1, 2007 7:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't say they are the same college players
The comparison between Gordon's situation and contribution specifically to the Bulls is very similiar (nothing to do with his Uconn days). Comparing the two in college misses the point. How Gordon is used with the Bulls and AJ with the Horns is the parallel.

He's a role playing additional scorer(true, with dribbling skills) and he doesn't have the defensive skills or consistancy to justify him as a starter. He comes off the bench as an undersized 2 gaurd in the NBA, which is similiar to AJ (undersized gaurd in college without D skills).

Cats and dogs sleeping together.

by EYESofBEVO on Feb 1, 2007 7:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Got It
Like I said, I know Gordon as a UConn Huskie, not as a Bull. I'm sure you've seen tons more of his play as a pro than I have, considering you live in Chicago. I really don't like pro sports and don't follow any teams with any real passion.

Gordon was phenomenal at UConn though and unfortunately AJ doesn't have anywhere the talent he does.

I see your point though about how they are used similarly.

--AW--

by awiggo on Feb 1, 2007 8:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Big XII Statistics
... make for interesting reading for Longhorn fans.  To say Durant is dominating the league is an understatement.

SCORING
## Player-Team               Cl  G   FG  3FG   FT  Pts Avg/G
------------------------------------------------------------
 1.Durant, Kevin-UT......... FR  7   80   23   50  233  33.3
 2.Law, Acie-TAMU........... SR  7   43    7   40  133  19.0

FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE (Min. 5.0 made per game)
## Player-Team               Cl  G    FG   FGA   Pct
----------------------------------------------------
 1.Maric, Aleks-NU.......... JR  6    33    61  .541
 2.Durant, Kevin-UT......... FR  7    80   150  .533

3-POINT FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE (Min. 2.0 made per game)
## Player-Team               Cl  G   3FG   FGA   Pct
----------------------------------------------------
 1.Abrams, A.J.-UT.......... SO  7    25    52  .481
 2.Durant, Kevin-UT......... FR  7    23    49  .469

3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE
## Player-Team               Cl  G  3FG  Avg/G
----------------------------------------------
 1.Abrams, A.J.-UT.......... SO  7   25   3.57
 2.Durant, Kevin-UT......... FR  7   23   3.29

REBOUNDING
## Player-Team               Cl  G  OFF  DEF  TOT Avg/G
-------------------------------------------------------
 1.Durant, Kevin-UT......... FR  7   31   70  101  14.4
 2.Rogers, Kevin-BU......... SO  8   27   52   79   9.9

OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS
## Player-Team               Cl  G  No.  Avg/G
----------------------------------------------
 1.Durant, Kevin-UT......... FR  7   31   4.43
 2.Carter, Nate-OU.......... SR  7   28   4.00

DEFENSIVE REBOUNDS
## Player-Team               Cl  G  No.  Avg/G
----------------------------------------------
 1.Durant, Kevin-UT......... FR  7   70  10.00
 2.Rogers, Kevin-BU......... SO  8   52   6.50

The massive margin in Scoring and Defensive Rebounds is just astounding.  He is breaking nearly every record in the Big XII, every Texas Freshman record, and soon every Texas record, period.  It's amazing to watch him in action, but the total domination doesn't come clear until you see it in cold hard numbers.

This guy doesn't really convey the way Durant is transforming the conference, but I'm sure there's more to come that will do a better job: http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/news?slug=ap-t25-texas-durantsplayground&prov=ap&type=lgns

Starting in January 2007, just another Limey Longhorn

by patienthornsfan on Feb 1, 2007 8:21 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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