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The Gillespie Rumors Don't Add Up (And Other Notes)

Some random college basketball notes during a very interesting and busy final week to the season.

This has already erupted over in the diaries, but let's talk for a moment about the Stan Heath firing at Arkansas, as well as the rumored replacement candidate, Billy Gillespie.  Let's start with Heath, who took over for Nolan Richardson in March 2002. During each of his first four seasons, Heath improved Arkansas' season win total. He won 22 games in 2005-06, and 21 this year, including five straight at the end of the year before a loss to Florida in the SEC Championship game. He made the NCAA Tournament in each of the last two seasons, losing in the first round each time.

Heath wasn't exactly dominating the field in his first five seasons at Arkansas, but he'd certainly brought the program back to respectability after Richardson burned things down to the ground. I don't know that firing him at this point is particularly fair, but his 31-49 record in SEC play had to have weighed heavily in the decision. Season ticket sales were reportedly slumping, too, which I suspect is the real reason outgoing Athletic Director Frank Broyles made the decision to let Heath go.

Now the rumors are flying fast and furious that Billy Gillespie will replace Heath as head coach, with an announcement coming as soon as tomorrow. Fox Sports' Jeff Goodman reports that sources have told him Gillespie has agreed to a deal in principle and could be introduced Tuesday afternoon.

As sexy a story as that is, I'm puzzled by the details here. For one thing, as much as I'm sure Arkansas' is willing to pay Gillespie, it's practically unfathomable that the Aggies wouldn't match that offer to keep the man who put the program on the map. The enthusiasm for Texas A&M basketball this season is unprecedented in College Station, and though I personally wonder how much of it will stick if the Aggies aren't contending for the Big 12 title, there's no question that a lot of the support is for Gillespie himself. It's difficult to imagine A&M letting Gillespie go because of money.

If money's not going to be an issue, what, exactly, is the draw for Gillespie? The Razorback fan support has a rich history, but as noted above, the Aggie faithful are supporting the basketball team as much as anyone in the country right now. Further, this reeks of the same silliness that we saw at Alabama during football season: a crazy old athletic director making a borderline firing because he thinks he can just lure in whatever coach he pleases. Most people thought the Alabama situation was sleazy, and I suspect they'll view the Heath ousting similarly. I don't know that Gillespie's Saban-sleazy enough to pack his bags from College Station and head to Little Rock.

In fact, the more you think through this, the less it makes sense. The move from A&M to Arkansas is barely an upgrade, despite Texas A&M's sad history in basketball. Unless there's an angle here we're all missing, I think it's far, far more likely that the next announcement we hear is a contract extension and raise for Gillespie at A&M than a hiring of Chicken Wings at Arkansas.

Back to the tournament for a moment here. Remember the whole business about how the NCAAs are won with great guard play?

This year's participants may have something to say about that.

Florida's led by Joakim Noah, Al Horford, and a powerful inside game; the Hoyas thrive on elite play from center Roy Hibbert and forward Jeff Green; Ohio State lives and dies with their seven foot freshman center and though UCLA lacks an elite frontcourt star, they thrive as much on their physical interior play as anything else.

This isn't to say guard play is no longer important - each team has outstanding backcourt players they rely on heavily - but guard-oriented teams didn't perform as well in this tournament as they historically have. Texas fans know this all too well, as the lack of a strong interior presence hurt the team all season. Even Oregon, which went on a great run to get to the Elite Eight with strong guard play, found itself totally overwhelmed when it encountered a team as big and physical as Florida.

Just something to note...

Last, be skeptical any time you hear someone try to ravage a clearly accomplished player or coach for not being able to win the big one. They said it about Mack Brown, Phil Mickelson, Roy Williams, Billy Donovan - the list is nearly endless. You're hearing it now about Bill Self and Rick Barnes. You'll hear it about countless others over the next five years.

Just be careful about joining the chorus. If a coach or player is consistently hanging around the edge of a championship, the odds are he'll get one at some point, at which point everyone shuts up. It's easy to forget that winning the whole thing takes a lot more than just skill... it takes some luck, too.

--PB--

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Comments

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interesting source fox news..
I saw that same article regarding gillespie and it said that the move would be released as soon as monday.  It seems that this afternoon, when they figured that it wasn't going to happen on monay, they changed the projected date to tuesday to keep interest.  what are we to believe?

by carsondude on Mar 26, 2007 7:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

changed again

they changed the article again sometime tonight, adding a quote from 2007 signee BJ Holmes. Holmes said he talked to Gillispie today and was assured everything being reported were just rumors. i know you don't always get complete honesty from all parties but it sure seems like the two sides are 100% sure of 2 different things.

by WacArnolds on Mar 26, 2007 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bill Self

I agree completely. People just go out and say that people can't win the big one, and while Self and Barnes (among others) have struggled with the big one both of them will get over that hump eventually. Both are widely considered right now as great recruiters that can't in-game coach worth crap which is completely false, they are both top coaches in the college game and it is just a matter of time before both make a trip to the Final Four.

Of course, I just hope that it happens to us before it happens to you guys ;)

Visit Rock Chalk Talk! It's what your mom would want you to do.

by rockchalk on Mar 26, 2007 8:55 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

this is why i visit this site so frequently

PB - you truly are a voice of reason. although you cannot completely avoid bashing the ags (which i've come to accept), you along with many others on this site bring the knowledge on a regular basis.

by WacArnolds on Mar 26, 2007 10:48 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

What about UK?

My thoughts: I doubt Gillispie or any top coach will move until the Kentucky job is filled. Gillispie may have issues with the Big 12 and might be looking to move into the SEC. Everyone is paying big bucks, so what probably makes the difference is the amount of control over the program the candidate gets.

by Caradoc on Mar 26, 2007 11:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Different animal

The UK and Arkansas jobs are different animals. If we were talking about Gillespie rumors to Kentucky, I wouldn't be shooting them down. That's a real move up the ladder...

See my post on Barnes and KY.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Mar 26, 2007 11:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sort of

They are different and Kentucky is clearly the more prestigious job, but they're both better jobs than A&M.  

Plus, if Gillespie really likes recruiting then the Arkansas job adds up.  They'll have seven scholarships available next year.  

He'd have better facilities, more money, more tradition, and better fans.

by Bob LaBlog on Mar 26, 2007 11:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting selling point about UK...

Is that they still have scholarships open.  I believe they had 2 left, and with Morris leaving, they now have 3 available.

Tubby was targeting Patrick Patterson (Huntington, WV) and Jai Lucas (Bellaire, TX), who are both playing in the upcoming McDonald's All-American game.  Before Tubby's departure, I strongly believed Patterson was UK-bound, and Lucas was torn between UK and Oklahoma State.

I'm sure part of the new Kentucky coach's job will be to land both.  Alternatively, they might also be able to bring along one of their prior commits (see example: Nick Calathes, who is currently committed to Florida).

All in all, the coaching carousel makes for some interesting recruiting rumors as well.

by jc25 on Mar 26, 2007 11:54 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The thing that sticks out to me

is that no one is releasing anything "official" which tells me that the two parties are at least talking.

If this was some random Hog fan site that says it's a done deal, the Arkansas athletic dept would quickly issue a press release saying that nothings happened.

Similarly, it seems like A&M would say that Arkansas has not contacted them for permission to talk to BG and that right now it's all rumor.  What I have seen is that their regents are meeting on Friday to talk about a pay raise for him.

Something's happening, I just don't know what.

by the other Andrew on Mar 26, 2007 11:58 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

A good point

I agree with you, Drew, that there's SOMETHING going on here. I think, though, that the most likely outcome is "raise and extension at A&M for Gillespie" as opposed to "hired at Arkansas."

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Mar 27, 2007 12:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does it really matter?

I mean, as long as it gives us something interesting to talk about in the long slow death march that is the space-time continuum between the end of basketball and the start of football/volleyball (!), and as long as it is causing agita amongst our beloved cousins in College Station, I'm perfectly content.

Officially a Limey Longhorn

by patienthornsfan on Mar 27, 2007 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gazelles

You getting excited PHF?

I'm vowing to watch some action this year...

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Mar 27, 2007 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would be...

... if there was any hope I'd get to see them play this Fall. I may take in one of the early season tournaments, if it's in a cushy location like Malibu, but what I really enjoy is the games against Nebraska, and they always seem to happen around Thanksgiving, so that the top two teams in the conference meet at the end of the season.

Of course, that doesn't mean I'm not going to be excited, even if it's from 3,000 miles away. And I'll be counting on a few BON'ers to take my place at Gregory this Fall, especially if we end up in the top 5 where we belong. It'll be the last chance any of you will have to watch my favorite player in action in Burnt Orange, since Brandy Magee will graduate after this season.

Officially a Limey Longhorn

by patienthornsfan on Mar 27, 2007 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

great guard play

My understanding is that great guard play gets you to the sweet 16 and after that post players and great all-around teams take over.  That's why you see a lot of the cinderellas with hot scoring guards burn out in the regionals.

by Fruitdog on Mar 27, 2007 12:47 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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