BlogPoll Roundtable 3.1 - Preseason Overrated/Underrated
One of the distinguishing features of the College Football Blog Poll is that it is a discussion. Voters not only submit ballots, but they converse about each other's ballots. Odd ballots are scrutinized, with fellow voters urging each other to explain the methodology of their selections. Groupthink, as it's commonly understood, is discouraged, but group discussion is insisted upon. It's a characteristic sadly missing from the voting which (in large part) actually determines who plays for the national championship.
Though I've noted my disdain for preseason polling, we're under the gun here, and the draft version of the preseason BlogPoll has been compiled. This week's roundtable urges voters to discuss which teams may be over or underrated by CFB bloggers.
CFB BlogPoll Potential Overrated Teams
#2 Louisiana State This feels to me a lot like the votes for Auburn at #2 last year, of which there were several. Yes, there's a lot of talent on this team, and yes, the schedule sets up nicely for LSU this year, but I cannot, in good conscience not think LSU is overrated when they are projected to be #2. Why? That means we're not dinging them Les Miles points.
And if there is one thing I have learned since I started this gig, it is: Always ding Les Miles points.
Aside from having a coach who will find a way to lose a game or two he probably shouldn't, Matt Flynn is hardly the slam dunk that a #2 ranking implies. Could he be a very good quarterback this year? Absolutely. Could he be a disappointment? It's definitely possible.
Meanwhile, the offensive line, though full of strong prospects, isn't as experienced as a year ago, losing their starting right guard and both tackles. I count five starters being replaced - one of them being Jamarcus Russell - and that offense scored 3 points at Auburn, 10 points at Florida, and 24 (not counting the game winning kickoff return) at Arkansas.
Add it all up, and LSU may have #2 talent and a favorable schedule, but they also have Les Miles. Two losses for the Tigers.
#10 Wisconsin You can make a very strong case for LSU (if you don't hate Les Miles), but I'm less sold on the love for the Badgers. Perhaps voters are remembering that Wisconsin beat Arkansas in the Capital One Bowl last season. Perhaps they are remembering that Wisconsin finished the season 12-1.
They are not, clearly, remembering that PJ Hill rushed for 36 yards on 19 carries against the Razorbacks. That Arkansas outgained Wisconsin by over 100 yards. That a healthy Darren McFadden means Wisconsin finishes the season 11-2, with their best win being against Penn State (in Madison, 13-3).
If you believe, as I do, that Wisconsin should and will be underdogs at Penn State, at Ohio State, and versus Michigan, it's tough to imagine them being a top 10 football team. I think you can make a good case that this year's Wisconsin team is better than last year's. I just don't think we ever found out much about last year's team. Consider me dubious.
CFB BlogPoll Potential Underrated Teams
#20 Arkansas This starts with my own ballot, to be honest, and it's a revision I'll be making. The offseason drama in Fayetteville has distracted me (and others) from the fact that the Razorbacks return the nation's best running back, a strong offensive line, and, necessarily, improved quarterback play. (Casey Dick simply can't be any worse than he was in '06.) Marcus Monk is no slouch, either.
Amazingly, the Razorbacks only play three true road games (they'll play Chattanooga and Mississippi State in Little Rock). If they upset Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, or LSU - just one of them - they're likely to finish with 8-9 wins. If they're better than that? Well, we've all underrated them.
#25 Texas A&M I'm not going to gush about the Aggies, for obvious reasons, but this is a better team than voters are recognizing. The offense will be well above average, and though the schedule is tough and the defense isn't anything to brag about, they're going to win a lot of football games. The Big 12 is the most improved conference in the country this year, by a wide margin, but A&M is going to put up enough points where it's feasible for them to have a 10-win season. Disgusting, but true.
--PB--
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where will A&M find 10 wins?
are they going to beat Miami on the road? look at the two deep for those two teams and convince me that Aggy will be competitive against Miami.
they might have a great one-dimensional running game, and they might roll a montana state and lousiana-monroe. but you think miami won't be able to keept that run game in check?
they're going to beat Nebraska on the road?
they're going to beat OU on the road?
I'll be charitable and give them a win over Tech in Lubbock.
i suspect we'll be laughing at all of the 10 game + projections on sep 8 when they escape with a win over Fresno State at home.
i think it's just as likely that they'll go 6-6 with losses @ Miami, @ Nebraska, @ OU, @ Missouri, @ Tech and Texas.
by cortexas on
Aug 25, 2007 12:36 PM CDT
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??
They are not, clearly, remembering that PJ Hill rushed for 36 yards on 19 carries against the Badgers.
Did you mean against the Hogs PB?
They also are not remembering that he gained 54 yards on 20 carries against Michigan.
I almost agree with you on Wisconsin being over-rated. I think they lose to Michigan, obviously, but both Penn State and tOSU look beatable this year. I'll split with you tho, and give you a loss at the Shoe (just too hard to win there if you're not Texas playing a night game!) and a win in Happy Valley. Michigan is clearly the class of the Big 10 this year. Let's see if they can live up to the hype for a change.
by patienthornsfan on
Aug 25, 2007 1:15 PM CDT
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while i agree the Ags are underrated....
i dont think they'll pick up 10 wins.
The Ags have a bad habit of going on the road early on and getting embarrased. I really dont see them beating BOTH Nebraska AND OU on the road, and definitely dont see them winning vs Texas. I've also gotta throw in another loss for good measure. That being said, they MAY have a chance at 10 wins if they finish off with a bowl victory in whatever .com bowl they play in this year.
by bleed burnt orange on
Aug 25, 2007 2:36 PM CDT
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woops....
they should finish the season 9-3 at best and depending on their bowl result, top 25 at seasons end....maybe 22.
by bleed burnt orange on
Aug 25, 2007 2:37 PM CDT
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Ags winning...x number of games
Nothing wrong with giving the devil his due, especially early. Is anyone thinking that ATM is turning into the Arizona Cardinals of college football? It's a sexy preseason pick with some good athletes and creditable position players where they could do some damage but, with their coaching, you are always waiting for the other shoe to drop. Holiday Bowl, anyone? But sure, the boxscore will be scanned over every Sunday morning until 23 November.
by DKRismycopilot on
Aug 25, 2007 3:21 PM CDT
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Good call
And I totally agree on giving the bad guys some love early on. If they crash and burn? All the more fun.
by PB @ BON on
Aug 25, 2007 4:16 PM CDT
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which is why I think Brian Davis is putting us on
He's a UT grad who enjoys Aggie misery due to grandiose expectations (that he helped create)
by the other Andrew on
Aug 25, 2007 5:11 PM CDT
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Gator Bait and Aggie Ice Cream
Everyone likes Florida to win the SEC East, but the margin for error in the SEC is very small, and the UF defense will take time to develop the younger players that are the eqivalent of Sergio Kindle, Lamarr Houston and Eddie Jones for Texas. What would our hopes be if that's who our starters were? Tim Tebow will always be a media darling and make some great plays, but this year he will also make some mistakes that will cost a game or two in the SEC.
I doubt A&M will win ten games, but they remain, in my opinion, the most dangerous game on UT's schedule. Say what you want about Fran, in 2005 they gave Texas the toughest game outside Columbus OH and won last year, and frankly outcoached Texas in both those games.
by burnt in ny on
Aug 27, 2007 6:30 AM CDT
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I hope they're right
While I will probably be labeled "traitorous" for thinking so, I don't know if UCLA deserves a 16 ranking. In theory, yes, they deserve that and more, considering they are returning 20 starters, and a defense that really turned it on last year. But of course, considering the ineptitude of Karl Dorrell and what I have seen to be inconsistent play (and what I am hearing in practices this year) of QB Ben Olson, I'm not sure that they deserve it. They have the individual talent and the experience, but I don't know if they can overcome those two issues. Teams with good defense and subpar offenses rarely do well in the Pac-10, to the best of my recollection. Really hoping for a 9+ win season, but losing games they should not lose have become habits for this team.
A Trojan can only be used once. A Bruin is forever.
by uclawarren on
Aug 27, 2007 12:37 PM CDT
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