Texas Basketball Report 2.11
by Peter Bean on Feb 22, 2008 12:49 PM CST
in Texas Longhorns Basketball
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PrintSince the disheartening loss in College Station three weeks ago, Texas has elevated its play to put together a seven game winning streak. And with Kansas State's stumble in Lincoln Wednesday night, Texas and Kansas now stand alone atop the Big 12 standings at 9-2.
For the third straight week, Texas now faces a Saturday-Monday two-step, this time with a home game against OU followed by a road tilt in Manhattan. With Kansas unlikely to lose the rest of the way, Texas' Big 12 title hopes likely will be decided by Tuesday morning. Win both and Texas enters the final three-game stretch of the season (at Tech, vs Nebraska, vs Oklahoma State) with a great shot at 14-2. A loss puts Kansas back in the driver's seat for the regular season title.
Whatever the outcome, the current seven-game winning streak has Texas back in the terrific position it was in the early going after picking up wins over Tennessee and UCLA. Disappointing losses to Missouri and Texas A&M seem a long time ago, as freshman Gary Johnson has found his groove, AJ Abrams has played with restraint and maturity, DJ Augustin has begun distributing the ball better, and the defense as a whole has tightened.
I was curious about Texas' Big 12 statistics this season and, upon looking, surprised a bit by what I saw. Take a look at Texas' conference only numbers this season, charted below.
[Note that these are not controlled for tempo, so do keep that in mind as we walk through these. (I've got a chart of Big 12 teams' pace this season for those who are curious.) One thing I hope Ken Pomeroy does in the coming seasons is allow for conference-only and conference-sortable stats. In the meantime, this'll do.]
What's Texas doing well so far in Big 12 play? For starters, they're taking care of the basketball exceptionally well. Of course, they've been doing that all season, and currently lead the nation in turnover rate. But the other stat that really jumped out at me is three-point field goal defense. What looked like a potentially fatal Achilles' heel of this team has taken a drastic turn for the better, with Texas now holding conference opponents to a Big 12 best 29.8% from beyond the arc. You have to credit Augustiin, Abrams, and Mason for their effort to get that fixed, and to our bigs as well, who are finally defending high screens authoritatively, flashing out high to cut off dribblers' passing angles.
A cynic might note that our overall field goal percentage defense isn't so hot at nearly 42%, but it's important to remember the relative importance of the three point shot in college basketball. As close as the three point line is in college, teams who can't defend the three are doomed. I'm enormously encouraged by our improvement in that regard.
Overall, the trend is excellent for Texas: the defense keeps improving, the youngsters keep developing, and the offense continues to score efficiently. Here's to hoping Texas protects home court Saturday to set up a huge Big Monday game with Kansas State.
Texas Basketball Report Archives
TBR 2.1 / TBR 2.7
TBR 2.2 / TBR 2.8
TBR 2.3 / TBR 2.9
TBR 2.4 / TBR 2.10
TBR 2.5 / TBR 2.11
TBR 2.6
--PB--
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The opp. 3 Pt. FG% really surprises me. That shows the improvement we have steadily made over the conference schedule, and I hope it continues. The opp. 3's really would kill us early on (ie Mizzou)
I know this s not really about Potential Seeds
But, ouside of te consideration of confernce championships, would it be advantageous for Texas to lose to K St. and therefore be a lower #2 seed?
In other words would they put Texas as a #2 seed and #5 seed overall in Houston. Or is it to Texas adavantage to be the #8 seed overall, still a #2? Thereby being pitted against #1 (#1 overall Memphis?)
What comes to mind
And I don't know where from, is that the committee will move a team up or down one place in the overall seed to get it into its own regional. So if Memphis comes out #1 and goes to Houston, if Texas is #6 we will face the #3 wherever they are. But if we are #7 we will be moved to Houston. Again, I may just be hallucinating.
Remember last year
I would think they'd be hesitant to put a #1 seed at a disadvantage by making it play against a #2 on its home turf. Then again, I can't help but think back to last year when they screwed over third-seeded ATM by making them play what was essentially a road game at #6 seed Louisville.
I do believe Bill is right about the worst #1 facing the best #2, the worst #2 facing the best #1, etc.
With Duke losing again, it's looking more possible that they could send Memphis to Charlotte.
Of course UNC is close to Charlotte
Except they may not have a 1-seed. Neither ACC team has a slam-dunk case for a #1, and both could end up #2, especially if Tennessee wins tomorrow.
by JudenSmithFan on Feb 22, 2008 5:30 PM CST up reply actions
PB? Anyone?
Is there a way to look at our Pomeroy defensive ranking after St. Mary's? I feel like we have improved a lot, and I wanted to compare now and then.
I have looked a little but not been able to find it. Our adjusted D rank now is 48, but I seem to remember it being a lot higher.
Our small guards kill us defensively, as we rank 221st nationally in 3-point FG%.
Well looky there, we are now 88th in defensive 3-point FG%. That's a huge jump since January 25th. If you go back to December 7th, we were ranked 270th in defensive 3-point FG%
I did find out our adjusted D was 78th on December 7th and our Offense was #1.
Not quite St. Mary's date, but I guess I kind of answered my own question. Thank you, jimmer.
WTF
Pomeroy is giving us just a 30% chance to beat KSU. That makes me wonder about the rest of his stuff.
To be fair
It's just a formula, not his personal opinion, and the formula just goes by the data that it has.
And K-State's data at home is pretty silly. In the Big 12 alone, at home KState is 6-0:
Beat A&M by 21
Beat Iowa State by 25
Beat Kansas by 9
Beat Nebraska by 15
Beat Okie State by 21
Beat Missouri by 37
Also
I have decided to quit worrying about a 1 or 2 and just cheer for us to win out. If that means we get a 1 seed not in the South region so be it. At least we are the 1 seed and only need to win 4 to get to San Antonio, where we for sure have home court.
It's about 5:33 and OU still sucks. Man they suck. I hope the red headed wonder whines all game long.
Hook 'em.
FT%
67% could just kill us come tournament time. I do not wish to be negative, but that is just a terrible percentage.
(I am now channeling my father, whose 1940's NE Iowa high school coaches would not allow him to end practice until he made 10 free throws in a row)... How can basketball players at this high level not be able to make f*ing uncontested shots 13 feet from the f*ing rim?
Rick Barnes on Rick Trico Show
Rick Barnes on ESPN radio: podcast
The interview is from after the A&M game, not sure exactly when.
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