NCAA Tournament Projected Seeds: Feb. 24th
by awiggo on Feb 24, 2008 10:11 PM CST
in Texas Longhorns Basketball
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PrintWell, we’re down to the final two weeks of the regular season, and the top seeds are getting murkier. Three of last week’s #1’s, Memphis, Duke, and Kansas, all lost at least once in the last seven days. Selection Sunday is March 16th.
They are listed by strength within each seed as well.
No. 1: Tennessee, Memphis, Duke, North Carolina
No. 2: Texas, UCLA, Kansas, Xavier
No. 3: Georgetown, UConn, Louisville, Wisconsin
No. 4: Stanford, Notre Dame, Indiana, Purdue
Next Four: Butler, Michigan State, Marquette, Vanderbilt
Big 12 Bids (5)
Lock: Texas, Kansas
Likely: Kansas State
Bubble: Oklahoma (RPI 28, Strength of Schedule 6), Baylor (RPI 37, Strength of Schedule 32), Texas A&M (RPI 44, Strength of Schedule 77)
Thoughts?
--AW--
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One Seeds
If those are the one seeds, and I'm not doubting they are, that would be tough on the committee to decide where to send them.
If UTenn is the top overall seed, I suppose you send them to Detroit, and Memphis to Houston. But that leaves you with either Duke or North Carolina going to Phoenix, which is quite a trip, especially if they likely end up playing a regional team like UCLA.
Put it this way...I'm glad I'm not on the committee.
Not sure the committee treats it that way
Protection is only for the first two rounds. After that, it's not a guarantee.
You're right
There is not a lot of regional balance there. I would bet that UCLA ends up a #1 and stays west and either UNC or Duke get a #1, but not both. That would help a little.
Duke won't be a No. 1 Seed
Duke just lost 2 straight games to Miami and NC St. Neither of these teams are ranked and I don't think NC St. makes the tourney. I know they only have 3 losses, but back to back losses (even if they were on the road) should count for something. I think short of them winning the ACC tournament, they will end up with at least 4 losses and will be a No. 2 seed.
I think you're right AW, UCLA gets the No. 1 seed instead of Duke with UNC, Memphis and Tennessee being the other three. At this point though, I wouldn't count Texas out. We are playing insane defense right now.. I really don't want to get carried away, but defense like that can help us get to the Final 4.
by LonghornForLife on Feb 25, 2008 12:40 AM CST up reply actions
Either way...
Im rooting for UNC to beat Duke in March, and clear up this mess.
UCLA, Tenn, Memphis, and UNC makes for a better spread of #1s, and puts us primed in Houston as a #2.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Feb 25, 2008 7:19 AM CST up reply actions
Texas may back door their way into a #1 seed
Everyone ahead of them loses and we keep on trucking.
by anonyMoose on Feb 24, 2008 10:40 PM CST reply actions
I can't really believe I'm saying this, but....
Drake (RPI: 11) should replace Butler in the next 4, but they should be in the back of that group. I watched them beat Butler, and was very impressed.
If we win at KSU
I'd project us as a 1 seed
big 12
A few weeks ago I would have said we get 5 or maybe even 6 in the Dance. Now I say 4. I see the last week and the Big 12 tournye as a beauty contest between OU, Ags, and Baylor, with Tech having a very tiny glimmer of hope if they could win out against their uber-tough remaining schedule. Fortunately for the Big 12, the Atlantic 10 has struggled and might only get 3, when they seemed to be poised to get 4 or perhaps 5 a few weeks ago. Houston played their way out of a possible berth, meaning Conf USA will only get one. If the Big 12 gets 5, its not for their own doing, but simply because the rest of the field has fallen back in recent weeks.
Very good point
I actually took a look at all the conferences last night. The mid-majors are pretty weak this year. The Missouri Valley will get 1-2, the A-10 will get 2-3, UAB could join Memphis from the C-USA but that is far from certain. and the Mtn West and the West Coast Conference are probably in line for two each. All of the other conferences will only land one.
That is good news for teams like Syracuse, Ohio State, Kentucky, A&M, Maryland, Miami, Florida, and Arizona State.
As long as teams like Butler, Drake, St Mary's/Gonzaga, and Va Commonwealth win their conference tourneys, the bubble teams in the major conferences will be safe and tourney bound.
If you ever listen to Glockner and the ...
ESPN podcast on b-ball, he claims several of those mid-majors will get closer to 4+ teams in the tourney. Lunardi and Glockner discussed the A-10 possibly going 4-5 deep this year. Off the top of my head that would include Xavier, Umass, RI, St Joes and possibly Temple – but I’m probably missing one in there.
On the flip side they think Arizona is on the outside looking in (can an 8-10 Pac 10 team get in?) and teams like Ohio State & Kentucky are NIT bound. Both brand names with very little substance. Also A&M just went from "lock" to bubble.
A-10
looked like they would get 4-5 about mid-way through this season. Xavier is basically beating everyone else and sending them all toward the bubble.
At this point, three looks likley. Four would be surprising and there is no way they get five.
Phoenix
To the idiots on the East Coast, Texas is a "western" state and if UCLA is not in the running, we will be going to Phoenix. For UCLA and Texas both to get #1s, either Memphis or Tennessee will need to stumble, figuring either UNC or Duke will knock the other out. Could be both since they still have a regular season game.
All this is complicated, however, by the way the selection committee likes to have everything worked out early on Sunday, planning only to flip flop spots depending on the conference championships. Ergo they would want to be able to put Kansas in "our" slot if they won the Big 12 tourney. Kansas is a team without a natural assignment, sitting square in the middle. So Phoenix works for them too, unless UCLA gets a #1.
In fairness to us "East Coast idiots"
Texas is the furthest west team other than UCLA that's competing for a 1-seed. If Texas is highly-ranked within the 1-seeds, they'd pretty automatically get Houston, but if they're the fourth 1-seed then it might be Phoenix so as to avoid sending a team like UNC out west.
Are you unrating the Big 12?
I think the strength of UT and Kansas pulls the whole conference up. Kansas State should be a lock and maybe OU with its RPI and SOS. Baylor and A&M are "Likely" and I'd put OSU and Missouri on the "bubble" (afterall Missouri beat us). Unless the conference is limited to 5 bids, I see 6 or 7 being invited to the Dance.
The NCAA
has never given an invite to a Big 12 team that was not at least .500 in big 12 play.
For each team to get there they need:
K St - Already there, but the still have Texas, at Kansas, then finish with Colorado and at Iowa St. They need one of those to lock them as in.
A&M - 2 of 4 Tech, at OU, at Baylor, and Kansas. I think A&M could lose all four of these.
Baylor 2 of 4 at Colorado, Missouri, A&M, at Tech. I think they get 2 if not three of these games, they are likely.
OU 2 of 4 at Neb, A&M, at OkSt, Missouri. I would give them less than 50% shot to win 2 of 4. They need a big showing in the early rounds of the tournament to get in, even with their RPI and SOS.
Tech 2 of 4 at A&M, Texas, at Kansas, Baylor. Very little chance to get to .500 + bad play out of conference = NIT.
Nebraska 3 of 4 Oklahoma, at Ok St, at Texas, Colorado. No chance.
Missouri 3 of 4 Ok St, at Baylor, Iowa St, at OU. If they get 3 of 4, that still only gives them 18 wins with their best out of confernce win being Purdue. They need to finish with 3 or 4 wins and then get at least into the semifinals of the conference tourney to make it. I give them slim to no chance.
Ok St 3 of 4 at Missouri, Nebraska, OU, at Texas. 3 of 4 gives them only 17 wins, with their best OOC win being LSU plus they lost to North Texas, I give them no chance.
So depending on how the games work out and how these guys do in the conference tourney, I think the big twelve gets between 4 and 6 bids.
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