Bracket Breakdown: The West Regional
We continue our tournament coverage with a look at the West Region, where UCLA looks well suited for a run to its third straight Final Four. The breakdown begins with a look at the region’s teams from top to bottom in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency (as rated by Ken Pomeroy), followed by analysis of the region's statistical make up. The regional preview concludes with a session of Tourney Talk between AW and PB.
All data from Ken Pomeroy. Teams listed in order of best to worst within each category. Each team's national rank is listed in parentheses.
| Bracket Rank | Offensive Efficiency | Deffensive Efficiency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCLA (5) | UCLA (4) |
| 2 | Drake (6) | Duke (10) |
| 3 | Duke (7) | Texas A&M (12) |
| 4 | Arizona (12) | Purdue (13) |
| 5 | Baylor (13) | BYU (18) |
| 6 | UConn (14) | Xavier (27) |
| 7 | Xavier (20) | West Virginia (29) |
| 8 | West Virginia (27) | UConn (40) |
| 9 | Texas A&M (34) | Arizona (48) |
| 10 | Purdue (52) | Georgia (54) |
| 11 | W. Kentucky (78) | W. Kentucky (66) |
| 12 | BYU (101) | Drake (67) |
| 13 | Georgia (121) | San Diego (68) |
| 14 | Belmont (123) | Baylor (88) |
| 15 | San Diego (175) | Belmont (217) |
| 16 | Mississippi Valley St. (325) | Mississippi Valley St. (257) |
Full bracket analysis, including Tourney Talk, after the jump.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS...
The numbers confirm what most college basketball fans thought when the brackets were revealed: the committee appears to have gone out of its way to pave the road for UCLA. Duke does rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiencies but they have difficulties defending physical post players and have difficulty scoring when they aren’t creating 15-20 turnovers. If it comes down to the Blue Devils and the Bruins in Phoenix, I’d give a big advantage to UCLA with Darren Collison protecting the basketball and Kevin Love, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Alfred Aboya in the paint.
The rest of the region is average at best. Xavier appears to be a fairly weak #3 seed as they rank in the twenties nationally on both ends of the floor, #4 UConn has been inconsistent and doesn’t play good enough defense to make much noise in the tournament, and #5 Drake and #11 Baylor have nearly identical high-powered offensive numbers and mediocre defensive ones. Last, I initially thought that UCLA vs. Texas A&M in the second round could be tough to watch. Now, after having looked at BYU’s numbers, the Aggies and Cougars first round match up could be an even more blinding defensive struggle. (AW)
WEST REGIONAL TOURNEY TALK...
PB: It's no secret that - dating even back to his days at Pittsburgh - I don't enjoy watching Ben Howland teams play basketball. They remind me a lot of the 2002 Ohio State Buckeye football team. (And not just because their brand of basketball so often resembles football.) They play great defense, they're physical, and they win close games. The important question, though, is: how effective can that style be in March Madness? Generally speaking, I think it's both outstanding and limiting, in that UCLA's incredibly hard to knock out, but they always seem too offensively limited to cut down the nets as champs. Agree or disagree?
AW: Gonna have to disagree. As ugly as they are to watch, their offensive numbers are top five in the country and under Howland they have been in that top five range consistently. Collison, Westbrook, Shipp, and Love are all skilled offensive players. I don't think we have to like the Bruins, but we should acknowledge that they’re a really good basketball team.
In fact, I really think that the two teams best equipped to win this tournament are Kansas and UCLA. Both are excellent on both ends of the floor, are loaded with talent, have tournament experience, and are led by solid coaches.
PB: To be fair, I did acknowledge that UCLA is really good. So let me take one more stab at this before we move on.
For starters, let's note why UCLA ranks highly in offensive efficiency each season. They shoot two-pointers exceptionally well (i.e. great in the paint), limit turnovers, and clean house on the offensive boards. That's a winning formula, and I don't discount that. My complaint isn't that UCLA isn't any good - they're great in a number of key areas - it's that they're unbearable to watch. They lack consistent perimeter scorers, succeeding instead with that brute force/work the paint/slam the offensive boards kind of way. Good? Yes. A pleasure to watch? No.
(Quick: name a guard Ben Howland has developed into an NBA caliber player.)
Now, with that out of the way.... Because I agree with you that UCLA has to be on the short list of teams that can win it all, it seems to me an important question. As strong as the Bruins are, my issue with UCLA has been that they've consistently lacked go-to scorers they can count on for points. I just couldn't see Aaron Afflalo anchoring an NCAA championship offense, for example.
The question, then, is whether: (1) Kevin Love is a guy who elevates them to a championship (instead of Final Four) team, and (2) whether Darren Collison's taken the kind of leap forward that can give them a go-to guard player. There are times when I think that the answer is yes, but others when I think this team is doomed to a loss when they play a great team and only score 55-60 points.
AW: I agree with those points completely. It’s going to take a great team on top of its offensive game to beat the Bruins. I’ll note, too, that I can't stand Kevin Love or the hype he gets from the Fox Sports media. However, he is as solid a freshman big man as I've seen in many, many years. He’s not overwhelmingly athletic, but seems to find a way to 18 and 10 just about every night.
Also, I don't think Collison has to be great for this team to win it all. More important, he needs to be the conductor. Shipp can beat you from the outside, Westbrook is an excellent slasher, and Love can get his on the low blocks or of offensive rebounds. Similarly to Kansas, it’s UCLA’s balance and experience that I think will keep them in the tourney for a long time.
Oh yeah, have we mentioned yet that the Bruins have the easiest regional by far? Is there anyone in the West that scares you? At all?
PB: Well, the one thing I think about if I'm a UCLA fan is that two teams potentially await which may not be overwhelmed by the Bruins' size and physicality - Texas A&M and Connecticut. The problem for both those teams, of course, is that neither is able to score with any consistency, which means they'd have to have an "On" night to give UCLA trouble. Beyond that, though? No. I think the Bruins are in excellent shape to make their third straight Final Four.
AW: Agreed. If UConn shows up, they could give the Bruins a run for their money.
Looking elsewhere, I don't know how much you got to see Baylor this year. Any thoughts on their chances of winning a game, maybe two?
PB: Baylor's a dangerous team when they're hitting three point shots. They aren't exactly a gimme team at that 11-line, but they have too many holes for me to see them making any significant noise.
Can you sort out the bottom of the bracket for me?
AW: W-E-A-K. I really don't think any of the bottom eight are national championship contenders, but one of them will be in the Elite Eight.
I really like Baylor's offense. Purdue has had difficulty defending the three ball all year and hasn't seen guards like Baylor's at all in conference season. I like the Bears to get a W.
I'm glad the committee sent Georgia somewhere that doesn't start until Friday. If they had to play on Thursday, Felton would still be crying. The Dawgs are not very good, though. I like the game to be competitive mostly because I don’t think too much of the Muskateers, but Xavier's my pick to get to the Sweet 16.
I do think West Virginia is getting too much love. Has everyone forgotten that they were an early Big East tourney exit away from possibly missing the tournament altogether? Now, suddenly people have them in the Elite Eight. That may say more about the weakness of this sub-regional than anything else, I suppose.
And last, Duke. Maybe it’s good that Duke has to go to DC and then Phoenix (if they make it). Maybe they can stay focused, knock down some threes, and find a way to get Zoubek and Singler some touches in the low post. Or maybe it won't matter and their lack of a post presence will still be too much to overcome.
PB: I wonder if Duke didn't get a bit of a blessing with a potentially tough second round match up against WVU or Arizona. I could see the Blue Devils dropping that contest, but I could also see it being a good test for them as they head to Phoenix to try and get to UCLA. It's not hard to imagine Duke being in good shape for the Elite Eight if they play well in the Round of 32. And they could well be the kind of team that gives UCLA fits. Duke can absolutely put up points when they're stroking from outside.
West Regional lightning round:
Team you love to hate?
AW: A&M. Without question. I don't know who’s worse on the sidelines: Mark Turgeon or Jeff Capel.
PB: It's an impossible choice for me, because both exude so little sense of controlling the atmosphere around them. They always look like frantic hens in a tornado. It's downright cartoon-ish.
And finally, your prediction for the West.
AW: More chalk for me - I've got UCLA over UConn and Duke over Xavier. Then UCLA moving on. In any other bracket, Duke would be out much, much sooner. One last thought. Arizona is incredibly talented. When Bayless and Budinger are both on - look out. The Wildcats have the players to make a run in the tourney, but they've never really gotten it all together this year. So I won't hold my breath.
PB: I've got no horses to pull for in this bracket, so you can be sure I'll be hoping for chaos, but this one looks fairly orderly to me: UCLA taking out Connecticut, Duke over Purdue, and the Bruins to their third straight Final Four. Love 'em or hate 'em, it's hard to argue with the results...
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13 comments
Comments
I like the way Howland's teams play
I'd rather watch a team that actually plays defense than watch run-n-gun, no defensive basketball any day. I realize people get more excited by lots of points and lots of scoring, but that get boring.
AW,
I don't know if you were referring to Xs and Os, but I'll have to take Turgeon.
- OU was never held to a 10 point half.
- There are several games where A&M would come out of a timeout, and immediately turn the ball over. They would do this several times during the course of the game. It made me wonder if the players actually understood what Turgeon told them in the timeout.
- Capel didn't force his offensive system onto his team this year, ala Turgeon and his motion offense.
by Beergut on
Mar 18, 2008 3:10 AM CDT
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I think PB is more annoyed with their offense
of slam it inside and crash for rebounds than their good defense.
by Wells on
Mar 18, 2008 10:18 AM CDT
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PB
Jordan Farmar is doing really well with the Lakers, and it looks like Westbrook and/or Shipp could have good NBA careers, so there are at least some guards that Howland has developed.
by goingforthecorner on
Mar 18, 2008 3:14 AM CDT
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Just to quickly chime in on this one issue
(Quick: name a guard Ben Howland has developed into an NBA caliber player.)
Jordan Farmar and Arron Afflalo both left early, and both were first round picks. Farmar is playing 21 minutes per game on one of the West's best team, and the team widely recognized has having the best bench. Afflalo is a rookie with the second best team in the East getting about 12 minutes per game.
Darren Collison is a first rounder in pretty much every mock draft as a junior. He came in ranked anywhere from about 66th to 100th in 2005, depending on the recruiting service. Russel Westbrook, a sophomore, is a lottery pick according to ESPN's NBA guys. Rivals didn't even have him ranked, while Scout had him 65th.
So that's two first rounders, both of whom left early, and two likely first rounders, both of whom will probably leave early, in the span of four years (five if Westbrook stays). In addition, apparently a lot of other kids thinks Howland is pretty good with guards, because he brings in, according to Scout, the top ranked shooting guard in 2008 (Jrue Holliday), the second ranked point guard in 2008 (Malcolm Lee), and the fourth ranked point guard in 2008 (Jerime Anderson).
Based on the evidence, I think Howland probably does OK with guard.
by Seitz on
Mar 18, 2008 10:07 AM CDT
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And for the sake of completeness
On the 2008 class, Rivals lists Holliday as a point guard (#1 - #3 overall), Anderson as a point guard (#8 - #48 overall), and Lee as a shooting guard (#9 - #51 overall).
If anything, Howland has had a tougher time with big men. Hollins was a Lavin recruit that did nothing until Howland arrived and got a sniff in the NBA. Love is an obvious pro, but would have been so without going to UCLA. Mbah A Moute might make it to the NBA. That's pretty much it inside.
by Seitz on
Mar 18, 2008 10:14 AM CDT
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It's relative
First, thanks for the civil response. That's never a guarantee.
Howland does almost everything well, so it's important to keep that context in mind when reading my critiques of him.
He's the best defensive coach in the country. He recruits very, very well. And even if he hasn't pulled in the best bigs to UCLA just yet (Love excepted), he definitely knows how to get a lot out of them.
I contrast that with how his guards play, which is often maddening. Poor shooting is the norm. (Farmar, for example, shot only 33% in his two years at UCLA. I'm not at all surprised to see him improve now that he's under Phil Jackson.) The perimeter play of Howland's teams at Pittsburgh was equally hard to watch. His half court offense is just so stagnant.
Two final points, to be fair:
- Darren Collison's a great player and makes me think UCLA's got as good a shot to win it all as they have under Howland. He opens things up much, much better than his predecessors did. Howland's got to let him, though.
- I had this same set of complaints about Rick Barnes for years. I appreciated the defense, but hated his half court offense. So I'm not lashing out at Howland out of some spite for UCLA in particular. Stagnant half court offense drives me crazy.
by PB @ BON on
Mar 18, 2008 10:30 AM CDT
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UCLA's Efficiency Ratings
Offense:
2006 - 113.0 (28)
2007 - 116.8 (23)
2008 - 120.7 (5)
Defense:
2006 - 85.1 (3)
2007 - 84.0 (2)
2008 - 84.5 (4)
First of all, this is a great rundown of the region. It's nice to see coverage of the entire bracket. With regards to UCLA, however, I think it's somewhat unfair to place this year's offense alongside the last couple years.
As you said, Farmar was not a great shooter, and for someone with that limitation he shot it an awful lot. Inside, UCLA relied on Hollins and Mbah a Moute, with neither being anywhere close to Love offensively. In 2007, UCLA had to replace three starters. Collison and Shipp were better than Farmar and Bozeman respectively, but Mata was even less of a scorer than Hollins.
Love changes everything for UCLA. He may not be quite the defender Hollins and Mata were, but his rebounding, scoring, and passing are far superior. Also, Westbrook isn't as good as Afflalo in the half-court offense, but he's much more effective in transition, and UCLA has taken advantage of that.
by Peter on
Mar 18, 2008 11:31 AM CDT
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I think that's fair
And why I take UCLA seriously as a contender to win it all, as opposed to "just" make the Final Four.
by PB @ BON on
Mar 18, 2008 2:55 PM CDT
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UCLA
It looks like this has been covered ad nauseam on BruinsNation, but in my quest for "Longest Post Ever That No One on this Site Cares About," I have to say there are some parts I agree with and disagree with.
While PB may think that UCLA's style is "ugly," (I am aware this is just your opinion!) I think it has improved dramatically over the past 2 years. When they didn't have a real inside threat, I thought that there were times that against a zone, the ball would get passed around the perimeter until the shot clock ran down and they would have to jack up a 3. Now, Collison and Westbrook add the element of being able to break down defenses (as Collison did multiple times against some really good big men for Stanford in the Pac-10 Championship game). Also, having a passer like Love inside makes it easier for perimeter players to get open shots when Love is doubled. I'm not sure how many UCLA games you have seen this year, but UCLA (especially Westbrook and Collison) has the ability to turn defense into offense by stealing the ball and forcing turnovers. I think that makes the game a little more exciting, don't you? When they are being efficient on offense, I don't think it is "ugly" at all, like when Westbrook or Collison drives the lane and then hands off to an open guy inside whose defender has rotated over to help (or if you've seen any of Westbrook's "Yambag In Your Face" dunks over opposing players).
As for the comment about Howland developing guards, I know I have said things about Farmar before, but as for Afflalo, Collison, and Westbrook, I didn't think any of them were NBA-caliber guards when they entered. Afflalo was a hard-nosed player, but I had read that scouts thought he wasn't as athletic as many other shooting guards (drafted in the 1st round and getting 11 mpg). If you saw Collison and Westbrook in their freshman years, respectively, I don't think people would have seen them as NBA players. Now, both of them are projected lottery or mid-first rounders. And as well as DJ Augustin has played this year, I'd still rather have Collison. I wish that he had been completely healthy when UCLA faced Texas...
(By the way, there is no question that Augustin deserved to be a First Team All-American, but I still would rather have Collison)
Also, I have to disagree about the points concerning their perceived strengths/weaknesses heading into the NCAA Tournament. I think that being able to win close games, being defensively sound, and being physical are EXTREMELY important in order to win NCAA Tournament games. One complaint about the Pac-10 in years past was that they would get "out-physicaled," and that refs are less likely to call touch fouls as the horrible officials in the Pac-10 do. Now, I think many Pac-10 teams have changed that philosophy, like Stanford and WSU.
Finally, I look at it like this: UCLA lost 1 player from last year (Arron Afflalo) and gained an inside threat who is an All-American. I think that for the most part, Afflalo's production and defense has been replaced by Westbrook (may score a few points less, but is better at slashing to the basket and is a more athletic defender). Plus, Collison, while excellent last season, has stepped it up, and the obvious addition of Love makes them better than last year.
I think the teams that have fared the best against UCLA have been those who have quicker players that can beat Love to the basket. His defense has improved over the course of the year, but the athletic big men (like Davon Jefferson, Taj Gibson, and Damion James) are the ones who usually pose the biggest problems.
I like UCLA to get to the Final Four. From there, it is a toss-up based on who else gets there. If UCLA plays the way they are capable of, I think they can win it all.
A Trojan can only be used once. A Bruin is forever.
by uclawarren on
Mar 18, 2008 4:03 PM CDT
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Thanks
Appreciate the thoughtful response.
Just one clarification.
What I said (or at least meant to say) was a two-part statement:
- Their ability to defend, rebound, and win close games is outstanding for the tournament, BUT
- My perception that they've lacked consistent guard play has made me believe they're incomplete for cutting down the nets.
Which is why I asked the question I did: Are Love and Collison enough to elevate them to a championship team? As I answered in the roundtable, I sometimes think yes, but often no.
As for Collison over Augustin - you're crazy ;)
by PB @ BON on
Mar 18, 2008 4:29 PM CDT
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Opinions
I don't have any problem with your take regarding the beauty of UCLA's offense. I think warren and Seitz have addressed where some of your thoughts might be in error. However, as you have rightly noted, UCLA's offense has not been a real pleasure to watch over the past few years. As much as I have loved the results, there have been times when I cringed watching our offensive output (the win against Memphis a couple of years ago in the Elite 8 or last year against Indiana come to mind.) But I think what you see as the deficiencies (lack of perimeter scoring, dump the ball down, crash the boards) is due less to Howland's inability to coach offense (a theme I have seen you mention from time to time here IIRC) and more a function of the players that we have had come through Westwood. Since Howland has coached UCLA he has never had a great shooter at any position, let alone guard, to allow for the perimeter game. You may not be aware of this, but when Howland coached Northern Arizona, in the late 90's, his teams led the NCAA in 3-pt FG attempts and percentage, so it's not as if he is averse to the perimeter game. But neither Afflalo nor Farmar was a great shooter (although Afflalo worked his way into being a solid threat,) and Westbrook isn't a big threat from the outside. Collison shoots well, but even with his high percentage I still don't see him as an outside threat like Reggie Miller (to give one old example) since he needs a lot of space to get his shot off and hasn't shown a knack for catching and shooting.
An opinion regarding a team's watchability is not one that can be tested for whether it is right or wrong. I think that Howland's preferred method of running an offense is also problematic for you, since it is not an up-and-down style of play. IIRC, no Howland team at UCLA has scored over 100 points, which if I am correct is indicative of his preference that the team play a more structured offensive game. That style can make UCLA look very bad on offense if the team is not shooting well from the outside. Again, however, I don't see this as a situation where "Howland can't coach offense," but rather the end result of a deliberate coaching philosophy. Even if UCLA recruits better shooters, a development that seems to have taken place with Jrue Holiday and Malcolm Lee coming in, I doubt that UCLA will ever be a hig-scoring team. But they certainly should improve their watchability factor, since everyone looks better when the outside shots are falling.
by ucladj89 on
Mar 18, 2008 8:44 PM CDT
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Terrific response
Much appreciated. Best feedback I've received all day. Without question.
Especially interesting point about Howland and personnel.
by PB @ BON on
Mar 18, 2008 11:57 PM CDT
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Well, I like to think
I am a passionate fan of UCLA, but I can be reasonable and objective. So as you have seen over the years, I am not going to be one to verbally attack someone, especially when it is a case of opinion. My posts may not always come across this way because I am willing to say when I think things are not going well (like the infamous Jordan Farmar comment from 2 years ago), as well as be able to appreciate when they are.
I do think that with a healthy Mbah a Moute and with Love and Collison, they are good enough to elevate the team. As I said before, with Westbrook replacing Afflalo, they are essentially the same team as last year, but this time with an inside threat who can shoot, rebound, and pass better than anyone they had last year. Plus, Westbrook is more of a slasher than Afflalo was, which will make it harder when teams have to double Love. Florida essentially had 3 interior guys who were big and could rebound and pass well. I don't see any teams like that this year, even among the top seeds. Again, I would love to see UCLA take on Texas with a healthy Collison. Then we can see which guard is worth taking. :)
A Trojan can only be used once. A Bruin is forever.
by uclawarren on
Mar 19, 2008 12:13 AM CDT
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