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Around SBN: SEC Preview, Week #2, Part 1 Bar-right-arrows



Under The Hood: Nebraska at Texas

The game doesn't quite mean as much as many of us anticipated it would when the season got underway, but as Mack Brown noted on Monday, it's still Nebraska. We know the Huskers are in a freefall right now, but exactly how bad has it been? Let's take a look.

Nebraska margin of victory: -5.3 points
Texas margin of victory: +15.3 points

Nebraska's opponents have a combined record of: 29-18
Texas' opponents have a combined record of: 23-25
As another rough guide, Jeff Sagarin lists Nebraska's strength of schedule as 22nd most difficult in the country and Texas' as 81st.

How are these two teams performing statistically? Below are tables of each team's season totals, with national rank in parentheses.

Nebraska By The Numbers: Offense
Rush YPG Rush YPC Rush TD Pass YPG Pass YPA Pass TD QB Rating Total Offense Scoring Offense
151.6 (66) 4.06 (60) 13 (46) 270.4 (29) 7.4 (33) 13 (45) 133.1 (36) 422.0 (34) 26.6 (63)



Texas By The Numbers: Offense
Rush YPG Rush YPC Rush TD Pass YPG Pass YPA Pass TD QB Rating Total Offense Scoring Offense
164.5 (47) 4.34 (49) 16 (25) 273.3 (27) 7.7 (24) 15 (34) 138.6 (25) 437.8 (26) 34.6 (28)



************************************************************************



Nebraska By The Numbers: Defense
Rush YPG Rush YPC Rush TD Pass YPG Pass YPA Pass TD QB Rate Total Defense Scoring Defense
227.4 (115) 5.12 (109) 22 (117) 230.0 (70) 6.9 (66) 10 (45) 122.0 (58) 457.4 (105) 31.9 (91)



Texas By The Numbers: Defense
Rush YPG Rush YPC Rush TD Pass YPG Pass YPA Pass TD QB Rate Total Defense Scoring Defense
89.4 (11) 2.75 (12) 7 (19) 216.6 (54) 5.8 (18) 7 (13) 106.2 (19) 306.0 (16) 19.3 (23)



The final step is to put those numbers into context. The following chart shows the national rank in total offense and total defense for each of Nebraska and Texas' 2007 opponents.Nebraska-Texas Opponents' Unit Rankings
Total Offense Rank NU Opponent Total Defense Rank -- Total Offense Rank Texas Opponent Total Defense Rank
8
Nevada
94
--
44
Ark. St.
61
83
@Wake Forest
50
--
85
TCU
33
31
USC
3
--
55
@UCF
64
18
Ball State
87
--
106
Rice
118
104
Iowa State
54
--
37
Kansas State
45
7
@Missouri
74
--
21
Oklahoma
11
11
Oklahoma State
91
--
104
@Iowa State
54
41
Texas A&M
73
--
82
@Baylor
90
37.9
Average
66.8
--
66.8
Average
59.5

Analysis

*I knew Nebraska had been struggling on defense, but this is ridiculous. Over 450 yards allowed per game, 227 on the ground. I didn't pay too much attention to Nebraska's offseason attrition, but the 2006 defense was ranked 37th against the run. What in the hell happened?

*Part of the problem appears to be the players quitting on head coach Bill Callahan. I'll be talking with Corn Nation about that later today, but based on what's been said there and elsewhere, it appears the Huskers have more or less given up on the coach and the season.

*It is worth noting that Nebraska's faced some of college football's better offenses this season. Remarkably, they pretty well controlled a Nevada team which has given everyone else they've faced fits. The slide seems to have started when USC came to town.

*Once more, the numbers pretty clearly indicate how poor Texas' level of competition has been this year. The 'Horns have faced two decent teams this year - Kansas State and Oklahoma - losing both times. I'm not terribly surprised to see Arkansas State faring reasonably well statistically, either. That team was far better than most of us anticipated.

*On paper, this one's easy to call. The game's in Austin, Texas has performed dramatically better than the Huskers in 2007, albeit against softer competition. Throw in the mess surrounding Bill Callahan and it's tough to imagine Texas losing this game. Which probably means that we'll be in a dogfight to the end.

--PB--

0 recs | Comment 7 comments

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Before their game...

...with Missouri, I was telling people that Nebraska had won their last game of this season. Mentally, that team is done. Poor old Sam Keller. He and Maurice Purify are probably the only guys that are still trying. Of course they have some decent $$'s at stake.

This is another pathetic team without the talent to stretch our abilities. Now playing OU-Lite in Stillwater struck fear in my heart before season's start. Now that we've improved less than expected, I'm even more concerned about next weekend.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championships run through OU and the RRS. It's not just "another game." ---

by HornChamps on Oct 24, 2007 6:20 PM CDT   0 recs

you're right

we are done. it's really sad.

I wonder about keller. It's not like he isn't trying, but his one-year audition for the NFL isn't going very well either.

Go Big Red Nebraska!
Corn Nation - Graduating more of our players than you are!

by cornnation on Oct 25, 2007 10:31 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

What the game may tell us about the Ags

If NU is truly in freefall, we should have no trouble with them on Saturday (assuming we don't play against ourselves), and I won't worry too much about the Ags' big win in Lincoln.  Yet the stats show that the Huskers match up with us fairly well, except (critically) on defense.  If it's a real contest, I will be a bit more worried about an Aggie ascendance.  I am most concerned about Stillwater standing in the way of our winning out.  I don't want to be concerned about College Station.

by NYCHorn on Oct 25, 2007 7:45 AM CDT   0 recs

Re:

By the way, PB, just wanted to let you know how much I'm loving the rash of posts on the site this week (or as the guys at KSK might refer to it as, the BON bukkake). Law school's gotta take up a lot of your days, but I'm sure I speak for the readers of this site that your time and effort dedicated to maintaining BON are much appreciated.

My adopted kid is pure genius at the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model.

by jc25 on Oct 25, 2007 10:36 AM CDT   0 recs

Many thanks jc

I actually like being busy, but still, it can be trying at times. Notes like this really help. Many thanks.

--PB--

by PB @ BON on Oct 25, 2007 10:58 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Black-Scholes
Second on PB (he's on break this week but his usual output is impressive enough both in quantity and substance).

Whenever I see your BS signature I get nightmares.  When I took Corporate Finance in law school the guy who normally taught it was away and a professor from the B-school taught the class. Yikes - no dumbed down lawyer version.   Think Scott Derry trying to defend Vince.  Fortunately there was a respectable curve.  

marshalld

by duras on Oct 25, 2007 11:01 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Two things happend

First - never replace your entire defensive line and you're defensive line coach in the same season.

Second - Somewhere along the line, our coaches, our players, stopped talking to one another  or something and then decided that they'd just live out the rest of the season being angry at each other.

Go Big Red Nebraska!
Corn Nation - Graduating more of our players than you are!

by cornnation on Oct 25, 2007 2:28 PM CDT   0 recs

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