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Morning Coffee Is Salivating For Aggie Sanctimony

Chuck Carlton of the Dallas Morning News points out that Texas has left the Red River Shootout with two losses before under Mack Brown (2000 and 2003). Each time, Texas won out to finish the season.

I'd certainly like to see that, of course, and it's worth noting that Texas technically isn't totally eliminated from winning the Big 12 South (though they need a lot of help). I do hope, though, that a bulk of the effort in 2007 is spent grooming this team for 2008 and '09. That means sitting players like Brandon Foster, Robert Killebrew, Scott Derry, and Erick Jackson. That means figuring out how you plan to use John Chiles. That means figuring out what you want to do with your running game.

Texas best players at its weakest positions are underclassmen. Time to take off the training wheels.

If you missed it over in the Diaries, Texas Tech students have created an interesting t-shirt for wear during A&M's visit to Lubbock next Saturday.

You could argue that this goes beyond the pale of acceptable taunting, but I must admit I'm rather looking forward to the Aggie meltdown over the shirt. That? Will be funny.

Also noted in the diaries: former Longhorn safety Tyrell Gatewood was arrested again on misdemeanor drug charges. Gatewood was suspended from the team indefinitely on September 13th.

Amazingly, Texas extended its stay in the AP Top 25 to 115 weeks. I do think we're one of the best 25 teams in the country, but we certainly don't have many pelts on our wall right now. Fortunately for Texas, this season's been straight chaotic. It's been hard to find 25 teams to rank, period.

I got a tip from a reader who wondered why Team USA Softball wasn't on the Longhorns' schedule this year. In 2004, the Longhorns were embarrassed 21-0 by the national squad, though Texas' top two pitchers were unavailable for the game. Still, given Cat Osterman's ties to the university, I know there are a lot of softball fans in Austin - not to mention Cat herself - who would love to see this game happen.

--PB--

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10 - 2

Winning out seems a disctinctly better possbility today than it did early Saturday afternoon and our ranking, too, has much more credibility than before.

Can there be serioius, indeed ANY doubt, that Texas has the talent to beat deeply flawed teams like Tech, A&M, OSU, the horribly mediocare Nebraska?  Many much stranger things have happened this year.  Moreover, as you've written and as seems more obvious by the week, our best chance of doing so likley consists in playing the young guys and building for 2008 and 2009 in the process.  

As for the ranking - as you've written and as I've commented on a thread bellow - there is every reason to view Texas as a quality team today than there was last week or, indeed, at any other point in this season.  Nothing on the Horns resume, including the games with TCU (especially in retrospect) and Rice (meaningless) justified a ranking and what standing we had was predicated solely on reputation.  Well, this Saturday we not merely played even with but perhaps outplayed what is almost certainly (and again there is quite the paucity of certainty in anything in College Football this year) a top 7 or 8 or perhaps a top 5 team going forward.  We cannot, with 2 losses, claim a much higher ranking, but top 25 or even slightly better seems entirely justified.

Strangely and disturbingly I have to say that in I feel better about our program today (especially in retrospect) than at any time since that glorious morning of in January 2005.  Sure, the recruiting was strong (alhtough some big fish got away) and last year was more than OK.  We were very highly ranked at the beginning and most of the season and could attribute our problems at the end to Colt's injury.  There were other issues with running game and pass defense to be sure but we could be confident in the talent and hopeful that the coaching staff would address the schematic issues with at least some effectivness.  The first few games of this season, however (and again one can take only so much solace from Rice) exposed physical flaws in the team an inability or unwillingness to adjust on the part the coaches and a general lack of fire that gave incerasing cause for worry and culminated in a crescendo of despair in the loss to KSU.  The OU loss to CU served as but a meagre paleative.  Against OU, however, although we hardly played the perfect game we showed the talent, the measure of coaching competence and the intensity that bodes well for this year and even moreso going forward.

For the record, and much to my regret, I cannot forecast another MNC during the Mack Brown era.  10 to 12 win season, Big 12 Championships, wins over OU and BCS bowls will hopefully come in more or less greater abudnance.  Without some incredible luck or the appearance of another VY (some piece of luck that would be too) Texas reaching the summit of college football in the next 10 years seems unlikely.

marshalld

by duras on Oct 8, 2007 6:40 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No NCs in next 10 yrs?

How can you possibly say that?  We are one of about 7-8 teams (USC, Ohio St., OU, LSU, Florida, Texas, maybe a couple of others) that consistently hang around the top 10 rankings.  We have great facilities and consistently get great recruiting classes.  In my mind, we have as much of a shot of winning a NC in the next 3 years as anyone else.  Crazy s--- happens, so you can't know for sure but why the hell not.  

In the 9 years of the BCS (has it been that long?) no team has won more than 1 championship.  Even if you count USC's split with LSU, that still means that there have been 8 winners in 9 years.  The way you win a NC is by having good players, being highly respected (thus being ranked highly, especially pre-season) and getting some breaks.  There is reason in my mind that Texas can't win more.

by SaintBevo on Oct 8, 2007 12:29 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not quite

I don't think our disagreement is necesarilly that strong.  As I write in my post I certainly hope for and anticipate 10 to 12 win seasons (including bowl games)Big 12 Titles and BCS Bowl appearances.  If we do that we will inherently ramain at the top of the CF hiearachy and occassionally be in the hunt for a MNC.    

However, as you note, there have been 8/9 winners in the history of the BCS and inherent in that statistic is that even for elite programs the chance of winning a MNC is roughly 11 to 12 percent.  

Unfortunately, and I would love to be proven wrong on this point, I think our chances at Texas are meaningfully less than that.  Mac's lack relative lack of intensity and conservative orientation (which PB has rehearsed extensively on BON - e.g. Gregg Davis, inclination to play the Seniors rather than the superior younger atheletes - although he seems to be getting over it to some extent of late {let's hope the keep going with the young guys more and more} probably means that our chances are somewhat less than, say, OU - UHG!!!!!!! -.  

At a personal level - merely from observation b.c. I've never met either - I happen to like Mac a lot and to dislike Bob Stoops with considerable intensity.  Furher  I am enormously appreciative of what he's done for Longhorn Football, having attended UT during the purgatory of the early to mid 1990 when we longed for a return to glory which he had given us to a large extent even before the advent of Vince.  Additionally, although Vince might be one of the greatest players and leaders in College Football history, it was Mac who put together the program and the players which enabled Vince to take us the summit.  Still, Vince was that absolutely essential component we needed to win the MNC whereas Bob Stoops was able to win 1 and play for two others in the absence of any such single dominant player.  And these kinds of players cannot be secured with certainty by any coach no matter how phenomenal a recruiter he might be.  That being the case we are probably, to a greater extent than an OU, OSU or UF dependant on luch in securing such a player or a fortuitous confluence of circumstances such as would allow us to secure a MNC in his absence.  This certainly can happend and I fervently hope it does.  I am not, however, as confident in that as I would wish.

Finally I want to temper and impression that I am being excessively critical of Mac.  The masterful sweatervest himself was thorougly outcoached by Urban Meyer last January 7th.  The latter was himself - on balance - outcoachd - OMG! IN GAME - by the Les Miles of all people.  Mac Brown has secure a huge place in Texas football history and I'm looking forward to the rest of his tenure.  I just think our chances of holding the BCS trophy are somewhat less than those of our peers.

marshalld

by duras on Oct 8, 2007 3:47 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We are going to 10-2

Its not even a question now. ISU shouldn't even be in this ccnference. That is a win. Baylor is well Baylor. So that is a win. OSU is a bad football team and a loss would not be surprising but highly unlikely.

Tech scares the living shit out of me b/c you just don't know how they will play. They are kind of due to beat us espically at home but i think we will be able to beat them and hopefully our running game will work. Nebraska is just a mediocre and poorly coached team. They have no defense and no offense. Their slow white guys won't be able to keep up. Their offense is terrible. If Mizzou can baiscally shut them out i think we will manage.

Now it comes down to the final game of the season b/w A&M. This game is simple. Make Stephen McGee beat you. We need to load 9 in the box and sellout against the run at all costs. We will score points this year against A&M.

It is a bad football team that should have three losses but got lucky against FSU and an atroucious roughing the kicker call saved them.

I will gladly take 10-2 but be a little bit upset b/c we beat ourselves in boat losses.

Veni, Vidi, Vici

by longhorn4life on Oct 8, 2007 8:02 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

we're not unique

I would concur with SaintBevo that all is not lost. As exhibit A, look at USC's "crisis," as described by SI.com. Three weeks ago, pundits everywhere wrote of Pete Carroll and USC as this impregnable juggernaut, perpetually overflowing with talent, not being afraid to play freshmen, and scheduled for BCS bowls into the next century.  Now, if they lose at Cal but win every other game, we'll be playing them in the Holiday Bowl (We'd better bring our A game to that one). For more on this, see my "Tale of Two Cities" diary.

by burnt in ny on Oct 8, 2007 12:44 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hand me the saw, Boris.

I suspect that the progression of the offensive line, their movement along the learning curve, will really dictate where this season goes.

There's two kinds of positive change the Horns can undergo in the next five games. There is the week-to-week growth of younger players getting more and more experience - and more and more feedback and coaching. The O-line and the DB should be getting better and better; this is normal for a younger team.

The regressive factor would be injuries, which could deplete a position and interfere with unit development - and both the O-line and DBs are units unto themselves, which implies a certain level of cohesion and maturity within the unit. And while the growth would seem to be gradual, this is football with a powerful laboratory for results; the games are both catalysts and weekly quizzes. The growth in both individual and units can take on quantum characteristics: both the illusion that the rate of change is linear and maybe not that visible at all and the illusion that things aren't changing, when in fact they are changing all the time and that change can be dramatic at any given time.

I know that sounds sorta scientific for football, but change is our topic. The LBs offer a different situation. The elder crew - two seniors and a junior - is the product of years of training and it's rate of change is slower and some would say definitely maxed out (middle LB tacklin' the ground while RB goes 65) while the junior corp brings not only more talent but a higher learning growth curve. To back up PB here, the junior corp needs to be on the field a minimum of 50% of the game and 100% of the time when it is critical. A stronger front seven will shield that younger DBs, although it can't help senior safeties who bite hard on play fakes.

What Chiles and Harris don't have is play judgment nor managing the game experience that Colt does. This is what the young QBs desperately need despite the coach's fear factor and so does the team next year. The luxury of three experience QBs going into spring training cannot be dismissed; errors of judgment are as great as errors of commission in terms of team play. There is a cost to gain that judgment and experience and that should be an investment the Horns make in the rest of the season; we can afford that chance of a loss this season much better than next season.

If there is one directive to give to MB (and GD this season), it would be to make this team dangerous, a true predator on the field on either side of the ball. True predators aren't self-conscious - they're hungry all the time. They don't show off and preen - they stalk and kill the opposition. They utilize their speed and strength to the max of their ability. They no fuckee around - they go for the throat. And that's what they do best.

It is an innovative time in football and I'd like to think the premier state university is cognizant of the dynamic developments offenses have made to use their speed and talent. The innovations have been about getting speed into space, from the LOS to the EZ, a letting that speed wreck the defense. The Horns have some world class speed but how many dangerous plays does that speed make a game? Once established, it opens up the rest of the game.

True, the O-line must give Colt time to find that speed, but, then, that should be the objective in the first place. Whatever enhances that development - whether more traditional running game and play action or the spread offense - should be the means to that end. And go after it early, when the legs are fresh, when there's extra energy to pump into the rockets.

Barring wide-scale injuries (ala last year), this should be an improving team on both sides of the ball through every remaining game this season. I harp on the offense because it needs to shift a whole level. The Horns have a stellar D-line and they will stabilize the D. Maximizing the offensive potential is the real experiment at this point.

by whills on Oct 8, 2007 2:40 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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