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Longhorns-Aggies Gameweek: Preview Part 3 - Securing The Win

We've set the stage for the stakes, we've talked about how the Aggies should approach this game, and now it's time to turn to what Texas needs to do to secure victory on Friday.

The A&M defense is 61st in the nation in yards per rush, 102nd in yards per pass attempt, and 104th in opponent quarterback rating. In short: the village is ripe for plundering. Teams that have torched A&M most painfully this season (Miami, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Missouri) have done so with a ruthless aerial attack. Those four opponents combined to complete 99 of their 128 pass attempts (77.3%) for an average of 334 yards per game. For those scoring at home, that's a whopping 10.4 yards per pass attempt. Did I mention 13 touchdowns against 0 interceptions? I probably should have.

Those four opponents also beat Texas A&M by a combined score of 151-64. Needless to say, a team which shows up against Texas A&M with its passing game working is primed for an afternoon of video game fun.

Lest we get too excited, though, each of those four games were road contests for the Aggies, and on the season, A&M has a drastic split between home and away pass defense. In College Station, the average opponent QB rating has been a solid 114.7; on the road that number rockets up to 178.2. Some of that should be attributed to better play at Kyle Field, but a significant factor has been the Aggies' misfortune of playing its stiffest competition away from home.

Turning to A&M's rush defense, the picture isn't much prettier. Five of the Aggies' last six opponents have rushed for over 4.0 yards per carry. No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, set up the splits, or look for niches where the Aggies play well, the overall defensive picture is grim. Not only has Texas A&M failed to stop any good offense from taking care of business - they managed to make a putrid Miami offense look like an unstoppable force. And if you've ever seen Kyle Wright play football, you know it takes a special kind of incompetence to make him look any kind of good.

And that's the big picture heading into the game. I covered the A&M offense in great detail in Part 2 of this series, and the above makes clear just how shaky the Aggies are on defense. Does Texas even need to do anything special to ensure a win?

Despite the big edge on paper, I have to say yes. Though there is not, and will not, be any excuse for a loss in College Station on Friday, the Longhorns cannot simply show up and expect to win. This Texas team, improved as it appears to be, cannot afford to go through the motions. This is the last game of Fran's Aggie career. It is the most important game of the season for A&M every season. And this Texas team is at its worst when it plays tentatively - when it plays not to lose. And it is at its best when it is pushing, pushing, pushing - seeking big plays and scrambling to save its life.

So if I'm Mack Brown? These are my keys to the game:

1. Play to win. Above all else - all the little stuff we have talked about and will talk about - this is the biggest one. Mack Brown's Longhorns are at their worst when the gameplan is to Survive And Advance, and at their best when playing desperately to win. Greg Davis and Mack Brown have hit their low points when they've approached a game tentatively, and achieved their greatest successes when their backs have been against the wall. Accordingly, the approach on Friday should be to seek and destroy. Getting into a slugfest with A&M is a mistake, and relying on this defense to win the game would be a backwards strategy. Attack, and play to win.

2. Make A&M be extraordinary. Frantana's Aggies do one thing and one thing well: play grind 'em out, ball-control slugfests. This goes with the first point, but along with doing what we do best - playing aggressively - we need to disallow A&M from settling into what they do best - playing conservatively. Make Stephen McGee beat us with his arm. Make A&M defend us across the board: the run, the deep pass, the intermediate stuff to Finley/Cosby/Jones. All of it. Anything but a game that Frandullah is comfortable with.

3. Get the special teams in order. One of the things we've glossed over this season has been the utterly pedestrian special teams play from the 'Horns this year. Quan Cosby, Receiving HeroTM, has been a zero factor on returns. If there's one change Texas could make that might have an immediate tangible impact, it would be subbing in for Cosby someone with better playmaking ability. On the flipside, though Texas did a fabulous job a week ago stealing a posession on a pooch kick against Tech, there've been serious breakdowns in kick coverage this season. This isn't an opponent to whom we want to afford any free yards. Make. A&M. Score. With. Long. Drives.

4. Use Shipley and Finley. Among the things touched on in part two of the preview was the likelihood of A&M swarming the box, trying to keep Jamaal Charles in check, and hunting McCoy. When earlier this season Texas was trying to succeed offensively with an offense revolving around McCoy using Sweed to stretch the field, it made a lot sense for teams to sit in Cover-2 and watch us flail. A&M surely will have noticed our shift in priority, though, and it's likely that they'll spend a good chunk of their defensive capital trying to stop the run. Though run we must, it would be criminal not to exploit the Aggies in the vertical passing game. Even if they were sitting back trying to stop that, they've proven no ability to do so. Again, this gets back to Texas dictating the game, rather than reacting to the kind of game A&M wants.

All told, this isn't terribly complicated. If Texas plays the game it can and should play, the Aggies will struggle to keep pace. Conversely, if Texas allows A&M to dictate the game's pace, this game easily could slip into a low-scoring affair that remains tight through four quarters.

Like I said from the beginning, this game is critical for Mack Brown. Do it right and we'll all be excited about the rest of the year. Lay an egg and we'll all be wondering if this staff can ever win a conference championship without Vince Young.

It's that simple.

--PB--

0 recs  |  Comment 24 comments

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Glad I'm not the only one

who is irritated at consistently not breaking any long runs from punt returns/kick offs or even getting remotely close to mid-field. And when was the last time we blocked anything?

Cosby's a great WR, but a mediocre PR. He just doesn't have that speed to bust a long one.

No way we're going to try this on the last game, especially considering how critical it is, but try anyone else! Charles, Chiles, McGee, Ogbannaya, Shipley, Jones...

It just seems like we're always starting from the 20-30 yard line.

by goingforthecorner on Nov 20, 2007 3:17 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Play.To.Win

Very well put...I like the agression strategy.  If we let the aggies come to us - again - we lose.  And while typically one game doth not a season make, in this case it does.

Hook 'Em...!

by Horns757 on Nov 20, 2007 5:16 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Well said

Particularly point one.  What was so encouraging about the Tech game was that we put up points early and made Tech play catch up all day.  I hope those gritty, nigh-impossible fourth-quarter comebacks -- thrilling as they were -- are behind us for this season.  I also hope Mack and Davis have engineered a creative opening series that will set an aggressive tone for this game.  

by NYCHorn on Nov 20, 2007 8:37 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Agree completely

The Tech game was the first post VY game that Texas has had the take it to the other team mentality for an entire game, and not just the fourth quarter.  Hopefully Mack and GD keep the pressure up.

by Wells on Nov 20, 2007 9:13 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Shipley, Finley, et al

Dixon, their best cover man is suspended the first half of the game. Fran has already been forced to play a back-up corner, due to injuries -- and he is maybe the worst corner in the entire conference.
The OU TE abused his side of the field the entire game.

They should go to Finley and Shipley early and often.

If Texas wants to win this game they can put it away with ease by throwing all day. Just like Vince Vaughn, Colt needs to make it rain baby. Make that football eclipse the sun and bring darkness to College Station.

Cats and dogs sleeping together.

by EYESofBEVO on Nov 20, 2007 9:00 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

forget the deep passing game

You won't need it. A&M's defensive strategy is to play zone all day, give up the short stuff, and hope in vain that you make a mistake. If it is 3rd and long, don't worry, we'll be five yds off the first down marker.
We don't get any pressure on opposing QBs, and we don't press the receivers, so the QBs have all day long to find the open receivers.
Against our passive zone scheme, the short and middle routes are open all day. Crossing routes to Finley, slants to Cosby should be open ALL DAY LONG.
We're not a hard defense to shred; we're coached by Gary Darnell after all.
Just mix in runs with Jamaal and short passes to Finley and your WRs, and you'll be fine. We play 10 yds off the WRs when they're on our ten yd line (no, that is not a typo; our secondary coverage schemes are illogical, and I've given up trying to understand them).

A&M's hope to win is that Akina will stick with your senior linebackers, who struggle stopping any type of running game, especially a zone read option like we run, and we'll be able to run the ball early and often, and hopefully put up some points.

If we do move the ball on texas, hope you can stop us for the field goal try; we can't hit FGs to save our lives.

As for special teams, our KO return team is pretty solid, but our punt returns are marginal. We don't stop opposing offenses enough for it to matter, though.

by Beergut on Nov 20, 2007 9:54 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Question for your PB..

I know you suggest an attack mode gameplan.  But I've thought that for our first drive we should come out with the exact same plan as our first drive against TT.  Let Jamaal-American slash at the ATM defense for 7-9 straight plays and then run a play-action to Shipley.

Then, I'm thinking from then on out, mix a couple zone-reads to open up some hole's for JC and test them deep consistently with Shipley and Pittman.
P.S. i only put the zone-reads in so Colt could show "tough", but they'd probably help the running game tremendously anyways.

If we can score three td's in three drives while holding aggsy to a field goal (or two).  We should try a pooch kick, totally demoralizing play.

What do you think PB?  It's not AS attacking as you may have suggested but i like the mix of run/pass

My adopted son Sergio Kindle does not sleep; he waits.

by mvplonghorns on Nov 20, 2007 10:48 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I would

Seek to hit Finley or Shipley for 30-40 yards on the first play from scrimmage and let them run.  If it works you've smashed them in the mouth first punch.  If it does or not then the you can always run JC on the next play.  My thoughts.

I'd kick them HARD right off the bat.

1 Peter 2:17

by HornsFan87 on Nov 20, 2007 10:52 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Let's talk defense

Great 3 part summary PB and hope your mom is OK.

As a group we've talked a lot about our offense, probably because we may need to win 35-28 or something, as bad as our defense has been. But I think it's worth talking about the defense anyway because they still need to get the Aggies off the field. So I'm going to do this in 3 parts: the running game, the passing game, and trick plays.

Running game. Not getting A&M off the field last year contributed to the depressing feeling the whole team seemed to have, even if the fact that McCoy couldn't throw really accounted for the loss. This year the Horns have at least two things going for them they didn't have last year:

  1. Sergio Kindle, who I assume should be approaching full strength again after his shoulder injury. In the few games I've seen, he has the speed and aggressiveness at outside LB (which UT really hasn't had for many years) to take away the outside pitch or the zone read edge runs to Goodsen, especially if Goodsen is dinged up. That leaves McGee to the DE's and safeties. Have fun, boys. We all know we won't know how much Kindle will play, but he gives UT the ability to make key stops in the game if needed.
  1. A healthy Frank Okam and Derek Lokey. Last year with Lokey out and Okam in pain, the LB's had to pinch in to help out on Lane's inside runs, which is always a bad deal when there is real speed on the field in Goodsen. This year, both those guys are healthy and can keep Lane to 2-3 yard gains instead of 5-6.

Passing game. As atrocious and tired as the defense was in the second half against Texas Tech, don't forget they made plays when they needed to against both Tech and Oklahoma State. For this game, let's think about weakness versus strength:

  1. Coverage. The safeties' weakness is that they seem to not understand zone coverage and can't seem to quit biting on play action, which forces Akina to have his cornerbacks so far off the line they might as well eat hot dogs with the fans. The result? Lots of free receivers in the 6-12 yard area and, with one or two missed tackles, it's off to the races. A&M simply does not have the offensive scheme or skill players to exploit that weakness. I watched A&M a few times and they like to throw sideline curls and go routes on play action. On third down, they usually end up throwing to tight ends, backs or a slot receiver on 5 yard drag routes to the sideline or over the middle, hoping that they will break the tackle for a longer gain. This is something the Horns can attack by playing man-to-man defense. UT didn't dare do that against Adarius Bowman or Michael Crabtree, but they could do it in this game.
  1. Pass rush. This is a game wher Texas does not need to blitz much, but faking it would work wonders (some have complained that Akina never does this, but this would definitely be the time). The strategy here is to corral McGee so he can't get big scrambles and make him look for the quick "hot" read, drop into coverage and then make the tackle or, heaven forbid, jump the routes. Pressure from Orakpo and Okam or Miller and Houston should be enough to make McGee jittery on any third and long situations. McGee simply isn't accurate enough to drive down the field with six-yard passes.

Clearly the Horns aren't good enough to make McGee look bad, but if they don't give up long plays and generate field goals instead of TD's. If the Horns make most of their tackles, they should hold A&M to less than 20 points, which should be enough to win.

Trick plays. Teams seem not to have run very many trick plays on UT this year, maybe because the regular ones seem to have worked just fine, or maybe last year's disasters made the Horns so wary that coordinators can see that the trick plays won't work. But I think the Horns should be extra on their guard in this game, because it's Franny's last game, a rivalry game, and all that.

Prediction : Horns 31 A&M 20
Hello Fiesta Bowl

by burnt in ny on Nov 20, 2007 11:12 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I'd like to see a couple of curveballs

thrown by the coaching staff. For example Kindle,Norton, and Muckelroy would start at the linebacker spots. Instead of being on the bench Drew Kelson would spy Goodson(assuming Kelson isn't hurt). On offense I'd like to see the Longhorns employ a 3 TE set a couple of times because when Oklahomo got in a 3 TE set when they played A&M, Gresham torched the A&M's secondary every time. In my very biased opinion Finely is 10x the TE Gresham is.

by imastoopidbtch on Nov 20, 2007 11:31 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Re:

Depth chart is out for A&M...

As expected, KBD is starting, and will probably see the similar 2:1 snaps as compared to the sophs. Norton is listed on the depth chart, as is Kelson, so hopefully they'll be OK for the game.

Ishie and Erick Jackson have the dreaded "or" tag on them, as do Lamarr Houston and Aaron Lewis. Funny how Lewis is actually a good player but gets tagged, whereas the linebackers still stick solidly in the first team.

Chris Hall gets the LT nod, as expected. It'll be interesting to see if he keeps that job next year as well, or if Tray Allen will be given every opportunity to take over. I thought we'd see Hall stay at center and Allen come in after the Hills injury, but instead we get Burnette. At this point, it would seem likely that Burnette will get the center nod for next year, and Dockery (with a strong backup in Huey), Ulatoski and Tanner look to have jobs secure as well. So Hall-Allen looks like the interesting last piece of the puzzle.

My adopted kid is pure genius at the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model.

by jc25 on Nov 20, 2007 2:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

OL next year

I'm not so sure Tanner has a job locked up, especially over Huey.

At OT, sure would be nice if we got Webb back, Mitchell made singificant progress, and we were able to redshirt Allen or Hix.  Of the two, Hix has looked further along in the limited action they've seen.

by Horncasting on Nov 20, 2007 4:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

From FW Star-Telegram....

"Brown said he supports his defensive coaches for keeping veteran LBs Bobino, Derry, & Killebrew in the starting lineup.  He also called out fans & media who wonder why they start ahead of promising, but error-prone, youngsters such as Muckelroy, Norton, & Kindle.

"'You don’t have the advantage of [watching] practice...You don’t know when a guy busts an assignment.  You don’t know when they don’t know enough about coverage," said Brown..."Our players...feel like we’re going to win every game.  And that’s been built by our seniors.  Freshmen & sophomores aren’t sure yet...But they may not handle the pressure in certain situations like the veterans.'"

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championships run through OU and the RRS. It's not just "another game." ---

by HornChamps on Nov 21, 2007 4:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

four years ago

anyone remember the 2nd play on offense four years ago?  David Thomas - touchdown.  That's how you start a game.  Then we finished it with some hard Cedric running.  I'd like to replicate that game.

by the other Andrew on Nov 20, 2007 11:40 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Great series, PB

I don't know how much faith I have that GD will be able to come up with another great game plan in his second straight game, so I'm just hoping he took the week off and we come out with the same plan we had against Tech.  And if we do get a solid lead, I want to see Chiles.  This is like passing kindergarten.  If he needs help with his passing game, dear God put him in.  This is like passing confidence steroids.  Especially if they pass on not third and long.  Why does that poor kid only get to throw passes when they know he's not going to run?

Ranting...

My point is, we should be looking at this game as a chance to put a big boot print in A&M's face.  Otherwise, you'll see more of the boring offense designed to win the game slowly and safely.  If Mack treats this as some kind of crucial game, we'll play the no-fun offense that gives Colt too much time to think and throw stupid passes.  If Mack tells Greg to put a hurtin' on them, Colt will be smiling from right after the first drive until they pull him for Chiles, and we'll have a very nice day.

Growing up, I only fed Jared Norton paper. That's why he eats plays.

by Horn Brain on Nov 20, 2007 12:22 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

You've created a feast, PB.

And we have a couple of days to pick the bones.

The Agros around here locally are very quiet and hunkered down; they won't engaged unless they have to, a good sign. They seem to just want this game over and a new era to begin.

I've felt good about this game all week, no niggling doubts creeping in. Sometimes that's bothers me in the last hours before game time; more so for OU than A&M.

We're in agreement that aggression is the best plan. Perhaps this is what the team has learned about itself. When the Horns have sat back and relaxed, when they've played without passion, games began to unravel. Early on they watched spirited teams grab the momentum and the Horns had to scramble just to cover themselves.

Part of that may have been just the youthfulness of much of the team. Maybe that's why the road seemed to make these Horns aware of what they represent and who they are, to force these kids to grow up and become the players they always thought they could be on the team they always dreamed of playing for.

Many have grown up before our very eyes. Now they head for the stadium that absolutely defines who the Texas Longhorns are.  It is not a place for the passive, the hesitant or the doubtful; it is a place for blood lust and aggression, where the predator subdues, destroys and feasts on its prey.

by whills on Nov 20, 2007 1:02 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

last year

I never thought we'd beat you guys last year, in the least.  And this year, I don't really have a great feeling.  If us ags actually show up and the horns don't(basically last year) then the game could be interesting.
    But, it Texas is on the ball, there's just nothing A&Ms defense can do.  One of the main shocks this year is how bad the offense has been playing lately.  I mean, everyone knew the defense would be pretty shaky, but not goodson and the train.  The main thing I think about is, it's a rivalry game, the last of the season, and strange things happen under certain psychological conditions(mich. app state, kansas undefeated, ect.)
    I'll be at the game, but I'll also have a large liquor supply at home awaiting the defeat(or the upset).

by carsondude on Nov 20, 2007 1:41 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

"We're all about winning championships."

Mack Brown in post-practice report:

The most important thing for us is to get that 10th win.....

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championships run through OU and the RRS. It's not just "another game." ---

by HornChamps on Nov 20, 2007 2:20 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

so I guess...

If he'd said something like: "Well, we can't control anything at this point other than our own performance, but screw that, if OU doesn't lose, we don't care at all whether we get to 10 wins again!" - then you'd be happy?

The only thing Mack Brown will ever say that will make you happy is: "I quit."  And frankly, I'm not looking forward to that day quite as eagerly as you are...

Roy Miller - with the possible exception of Barbara Feldon, the best #99 anywhere!!!

by agent orange on Nov 20, 2007 8:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Re:

Mack Brown in post-practice report:

"The most important thing for us is to get our 10th win and win this game regardless of what happens after that because that is all we can control. We have not even discussed anything else other than winning on Friday."

Mack is the master of spin, but it looks like HC is spinning the truth here. I didn't actually watch the interview (perhaps HC did), but I'm getting this quote from MB-TF. For some reason, this reminds me of the Cedric Benson quote where he said (paraphrasing) winning the Heisman was more important than beating OU, when any PR major would've told him that it would be more PC to say that the best way to win the Heisman would be to beat OU.

In Mack's case, while losing to A&M still leaves UT with a chance to advance to the conference championship, it would make beating the North winner a long shot at best. Thus, the best way to win that conference championship is to beat A&M first, whereby they'd pick up that 10th win. That doesn't mean that Mack doesn't want to win the Big XII, or would rather win that tenth game rather than the conference championship. It more so means that Mack is giving the PC answer and attempting to focus his team on the upcoming game because a Big XII championship is largely academic at this point; until we actually see OU drop their last game to OSU, we're not even sniffing the championship game.

But that doesn't mean to discount that (and yes, I'm with you on this HC) Mack really, really wants that number 10 in the W column.

"It’s a rival game and it’s another 10th win (season), seven in a row, this senior class can win two more games and be tied for the winningest class in school history."

My adopted kid is pure genius at the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model.

by jc25 on Nov 20, 2007 2:38 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

actually, I don't think it is PC talk

 Mack knows a win over A&M is important.

 You don't stay the head coach at texas long if you lose to A&M and OU in the same year.

by Beergut on Nov 21, 2007 3:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Please explain...

how we can get to the CCG w/o beating atm...?

Hook 'Em...!

by Horns757 on Nov 20, 2007 3:57 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

If

OU and UT loses, then the tie breaker between OSU, OU and UT is the BCS rank.  If Texas say loses on a bad onside kick call and OU loses by 50+ then they might drop further in the BCS than UT.

by Wells on Nov 20, 2007 4:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Also

OU would have ended the season losing 2 in a row, which could push them down slightly further than us.  Hey, it could happen....

by Horncasting on Nov 20, 2007 4:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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