Texas at Michigan State Preview

by Peter Bean on Dec 22, 2007 11:57 AM CST in Basketball Comment 4 comments

#4 Texas at #9 Michigan State
The Palace - Detroit, Michigan
Tip: 5:30 PM / TV: ESPN2

The #4/#5 Texas Longhorns (11-0) look to remain undefeated as they take on their third Top 10 team this season with a trip to Detroit to play #9/#10 Michigan State. The Spartans (10-1) have won seven straight after dropping an early November contest to UCLA in Kansas City. Michigan State has two quality wins - Missouri (in Kansas City) and BYU, and probably should have beat UCLA - they led the Bruins by as many as 9 in the second half, including by 3 with less than two minutes to play.

Michigan State relies heavily on senior point guard Drew Neitzel (14.5 points) and sophomore forward Raymar Morgan (16.7) for their scoring. After those two, a host of contributors average between 7 and 9 points per game: center Goran Suton, forward Marquise Gray, guard Chris Allen, guard Kalin Lucas, and guard Durrell Summers.

MSU Profile
Offense: This is a good offensive ball club - Michigan State makes a healthy portion of their 2-point shots, and when they miss, they hit the offensive glass better than anyone in the country. The Spartans are pulling in offensive rebounds on a stunning 46.8% of their possessions, a number which helps make up for their relatively high turnover rate (21.8%).

One thing to keep in mind here: even though teams usually enjoy what should be a big rebounding edge on Texas, there's a price to pay for crashing the offensive glass too hard, as the 'Horns run the fast break as well or better than anyone in the country. If you don't release some guys to cover the break, Texas will get out and run you to death. Will Tom Izzo try to muscle the offensive glass or send defenders back to keep Texas from getting into the fast break?

Defense: Tom Izzo's always been a good defensive coach, and once again the Spartans are a solid club. They hold opponents to 43% of their two-point shots, only 31% of their threes. Michigan State doesn't force many turnovers, and, surprisingly they haven't dominated the defensive rebounding as well as you'd expect from an Izzo club. Overall, this is a solid - not great - defensive profile. Don't be fooled, though: these guys are big, they're physical, and they're well-coached. Nothing will come easy for the 'Horns tonight.

Keys to the Game:
(1) Battle of the Point Guards: Both teams are extremely dependent on their point guards playing well. If either player struggles or gets in foul trouble, it could be a long night for their teammates. It's going to be especially important for Texas to have Augustin out on the floor, but let's hope we see a balanced offensive approach like we saw at UCLA. Standing around and having Augustin drive into a pile of big Michigan State bodies is not the best approach.

(2) James, Abrams Find Their Strokes: Both players have been ice cold from the field recently, and though Connor Atchley's stepped up offensively, Texas beat UCLA by having weapons all over the court who could fill up the rim. If we're not multi-dimensionsal on offensive tonight, we'll lose. If we're getting scoring from everyone, we're incredibly tough to outpace.

(3) No Easy Baskets, Second Looks: Michigan State doesn't shoot very well and turns the ball over frequently. If the 'Horns can keep the Spartans shooting jump shots and off the offensive glass, the chances of a win tonight increase dramatically.

Honestly, this is another brutally tough matchup for Texas. There's now enough tape on Texas that Tom Izzo's probably going to slow this game down, keep the ball from Augustin, and make Texas try to score other ways. Easier said than done, but it does mean the Longhorns will have to be playing good team basketball to win. I'm especially anxious to see how Abrams comes out and plays; if he's taking bad shots, wild shots, or forced threes, we're in trouble. If he's working within the offense and taking what's there - and hitting open looks - I like our chances.

Same goes for Damien James; we're just that much harder to defend when he's hitting 10-12 footers. With his elevation and high release point, he can get his shot whenever he wants it, so if the 'Horns are struggling elsewhere, having James on his game will help tremendously.

Can Texas really beat a third straight top ten team to open the season? Again, on the road? I have serious concerns about this game, but Texas has certainly exceeded my expectations all season long.

Game Day Links
Spartans Weblog
Texas Sports preview
MSU Scouting Report
Texas Scouting Report

--PB--

0 recs | Comment 4 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Read More: texas basketball, michigan state

Comments

Several Thoughts

Morgan-I'm interested in who the Longhorns put on Raymar Morgan. He's the type of ahtletic wing that I'm not sure we match up well against with three backcourt players 6-2 and under. Are we going to try J-Mace on him? Or Damian James? I'm not sure if Mace has the size or strength to defend him and putting James on him leaves another mismatch for Mace.
Mismatches for us-I think we have quickness mismatches at almost every position on the floor. Particularly, we should have favorable match ups for James and Mace. I would like to see some isolation plays (we saw it earlier in the season a little bit) for whichever one of those two has the greater quickness advantage. Also, we've seen some ability by Connor Atchley to take the ball to the rack from the perimeter.
James-I think having Damian float around the perimeter gives us better spacing and creates driving lanes to the basket, which I like. However, I've been distressed by the volume of three point shots he's been taking recently. I think he's a year away from being able to consistently hit that shot. He has the great elevation and high release that PB mentioned, but lacks arc on his shot. Right now, he's much more effective from 10-15 feet and that is where I would like to see him take his jumpshots from during this game. I think that he also needs to exploit his quickness advantage (as I mentioned above) and I would like to see more of his face up game going to the basket. He needs to stop settling for jump shots. Defenders have to close out on his jumpshot now, and I think that if he can give a pump fake, he should have a path to the basket. Most of our movement seems to be AJ running the baseline and three point line across the court. I would like to see Damian play some in the high post and look crosscourt or for some cutters. He has been effective in that position the few times that we have seen it from him this year. If we can get more movement in our offense and swing the ball from side to side I think we can get better looks and open up lanes for penetration. He needs to work on his defensive rotations, which were slow and unacceptable repeatedly during the Texas State game. I'm sure Ricky B reamed him about that.
Mace-Some iso plays would help and hitting some open jumpers give us another dimension to our offense. Early in the season he looked more confident with his jumper, but now he seems to have regressed to the same hesistant player we saw most of last season. He is really going to have to step up on the defensive end, shutting down a bigger player and getting tough boards. Same for Connor.
Three point shooting-With Michigan State not hitting the three well, I think DJ, AJ, and Connor knocking down their open looks is going to be a big key for us and a way to pick up from extra points.
MSU foul situation-The MSU big men tend to get into foul trouble. That's why I think some iso plays to get to the hoop and draw some contact and get to the line will help us. DJ needs to play under control when he gets to the rim, but he has shown that he can create contact (and also get some questionable calls). He needs to avoid the offensive foul trouble that plagued him a lot last year because we can't afford not to have him in this game.

I think Izzo will try to make this a tough, physical, grind-it-out game to wear us down and keep us out of transition. Maybe a zone can help us bait them into quick and ill-advised outside shots. This would be a great win for us as we build our tournament resume.

Go Horns!

Please refer to the Rose Bowl as Vince Young Field at the Rose Bowl -- he owns that place

by ghostoftheplaymaker4 on Dec 22, 2007 2:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs