Under The Hood: Kansas State at Texas
by Peter Bean on Sep 27, 2007 9:46 PM CDT
in Texas Longhorns Football
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Printit's time for a look at the numerical resumes of Saturday's contest. Sample size caveats are especially relevant at this point in the season.
Kansas State margin of victory: +21.0 points
Texas margin of victory: +24.8
Kansas State's (Division 1-A) opponents have a combined record of: 3-5
Texas's opponets have a combined record of: 5-9
As another rough guide, Jeff Sagarin lists Kansas State's strength of schedule as 125th in the country and Texas' as 109th. (Sagarin rates 242 college football teams.)
How are these two teams performing statistically? Below are tables of each team's season totals, with national rank in parentheses.
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 133.7 (76) | 4.97 (27) | 8 (31) | 295.3 (22) | 6.5 (66) | 4 (82) | 122.5 (63) | 429.0 (44) | 36.0 (29) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 187.3 (36) | 4.77 (34) | 8 (31) | 263.5 (33) | 7.1 (46) | 7 (43) | 134.7 (41) | 450.8 (27) | 37.0 (23) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68.0 (9) | 1.89 (6) | 1 (7) | 190.3 (37) | 6.1 (39) | 3 (23) | 117.9 (48) | 258.3 (13) | 15.7 (16) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.3 (21) | 2.55 (15) | 5 (65) | 223.3 (59) | 6.5 (55) | 2 (16) | 109.1 (33) | 310.5 (31) | 18.0 (25) |
All stats via CFB Stats
Charts? Charts!
*We're dealing with problematically small sample sizes here, so we don't want to draw too many big picture conclusions from this. I'll say this, though: Texas has been far from dominant against a pretty soft schedule. We're hopeful that adjustments we saw in the Rice game portend for better performance heading forward, but something 54b wrote today sticks out: "I don't think teams change, I think their opponents do." For now, we have to hope the story's not yet been told, because these aren't the numbers of an elite team.
*Kansas State, in particular, is still an enigma, as they've only really played two games. Southwest Missouri State is a scrimmage, for all intents and purposes. And really, San Jose State isn't much of a team - they're much closer to Rice than, say, Central Florida. All we really have to go on is Auburn.
The Wildcats kept that game close, but collapsed late and lost on the road. Ron Prince pretty much gave up on trying to run the football against the Tigers, attempting just 16 rushes for 27 yards, while turning to the air an astounding 57 times. Freeman completed 32 of those attempts, but failed to throw a touchdown pass, while being intercepted twice.
*Corey Leonard, Kyle Dalton, Kyle Israel, and Chase Clement. Did you have to pause a few moments to figure out those names? Probably so. That's because they're no-names. They're also the quarterbacks which Texas is playing middle of the road pass defense against. This has to be the big worry once again. Prince wants to gun the ball, and when he looks at our secondary, plus last year's game tape, he's going to get big eyes. If the Wildcats are gonna upset Texas, it'll be exactly in the same manner as last year - with big plays through the air.
--PB--
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couple of issues PB
- you've got Michigan in place of Texas in your strength of schedule paragraph...twice
and
- you gotta start putting the whole ' charts?charts! ' before the actual charts. it drives me nuts, unless you do it for some reason i'm not aware of, in which case you still need to stop.
ok, continue fighting the good fight.
Thank you, sir
Fixed. I write these off of a template - the Ohio State-Michigan game from the end of 2006. I sometimes miss making some changes. And honestly, even with the template, each of these things takes an hour and a half to do. It's a royal pain in the ass.
As for the "Charts? Charts!" - sorry, my friend. That one goes way, way back, to something Brian started. Always liked it.
yeah
i know the whole charts?charts! thing is from mgoblog. as a fan of the winged helmets since before kordell broke my hart, i'm crazy devoted to brian's work . but it just doesn't make sense putting it after the charts. (take another look at the link you provided)
also of note....
although it's early in the season, Sagarin has us rated at 9th, while KSU is rated 61.
his ratings would also indicate that we're ~15-18pt favorite at home.
by cortexas on Sep 28, 2007 8:56 AM CDT reply actions
H-Back pass
I, for one, will be interested to see how we defend the halfback pass. Its a masterful call from Jesus when your team executes a perfect flea-flicker style/triple reverse WR pass and its pussy gimmick-ball when your team gets burned for 40 yards twice on consecutive plays.
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