BlogPoll Week One Draft: HELP!

by PB @ BON on Sep 3, 2007 8:56 PM CDT in Football Comment 27 comments

BlogPoll ballots are due tomorrow, which gives us a little bit of time to talk out this week's submission. Below is my tentative draft, with a note urging you to chime in if you feel especially strong about something. I've provided a little bit of explanation and commentary about each team.

Please keep in mind: My ranking methodology depends heavily on a team's resume. The resume takes on more and more importance as more data is gathered throughout the season, but even now, after just one week, I'm beginning the process of rewarding strong wins, punishing losses, and weighting - in some manner - the quality of a team's win. Still, with just one game played, there's a lot of projecting in play.

I will say, as I did with the preseason ballot, that as inexact a science as it is in November, it's practically meaningless in September. Still, talking about these teams now is relatively harmless, so long as we're willing to revise our ballots dramatically as more data is gathered.

Onward:

1. Southern Cal Not a great night for the Trojans, but nothing to be worried about yet, either.

2. West Virginia A year ago, the defense looked too average to justify optimism of a top-five caliber season. This year? I like the offense a lot, but the same question remains. Bottom line: this ranking may not stick. We'll find out more 9/28 when the Mountaineers travel to play South Florida.

3. Florida They were vastly superior than their opponent, sure, but Tim Tebow looked so, so good out there. Replacing nine starters on defense is worrisome, but the new guys aren't exactly duds.

4. Oklahoma Sam Bradford hasn't faced a real test yet, but he's looked just fine picking on the weak stuff. We'll learn much more this week as the Sooners try to score on a real defense.

5. LSU Mississippi State sure didn't test them, but the LSU offense doesn't look elite to me. Plus, I'm contractually obligated to ding Les Miles points.

6. Hawaii I'm projecting here, obviously, as Hawaii won't have any notches on its belt until it beats someone of note. One loss and they're out from the poll.

7. Louisville Beat up a bad team. As expected.

8. Georgia Absolutely buried Oklahoma State. So much for the Cowpokes turning the corner, huh? (Can Georgia sustain this ranking? I have no idea, but they earned some love with a real win.)

9. California I went straight to someone who was at the game for a report on the Golden Bears and how high I could rank them. Holly isn't as optimistic as some: "Nate Longshore seems inhuman, and I don't mean that in a good way. He was like a simple machine; he didn't make any big plays on his own. As for their defense, the Vols hung 31 on 'em, on the road, with a totally green offensive unit. Tennessee isn't there yet, but I'm not totally sold on Cal just yet."

10. Texas We've covered this already. If Texas' performance wasn't an aberration, things could get ugly. Starting next Saturday.

11. Penn State If Georgia Tech can beat the Irish by 30 in South Bend, the Nittany Lions won't have any excuses next Saturday evening if they fall flat. The Notre Dame offensive line is truly awful.

12. Ohio State Ohio State can snack on Akron this coming Saturday, but they'll get a much stiffer test a week later when they travel to play Washington on the road.

13. Missouri Gary Pinkel is going to blow this, just like Missouri almost blew their win against Illinois.

14. Virginia Tech The offense still looks inept. How do they plan to score in Baton Rouge? I'm not sure they will.

15. TCU This is a big, big game for both programs. Did you know TCU's won five straight against the Big 12? Did you even want to know that?

16. Arkansas A week off before a trip to Tuscaloosa. Show me time for both schools.

17. Nebraska I was legitimately impressed, which is an odd thing to say about a Bill Callahan-coached team. We'll see if it lasts.

18. Alabama A road trip to Vanderbilt presents a real opponent. The real test awaits a week later.

19. Clemson In progress.

20. Texas A&M Fresno State next week, Louisiana-Monroe the week after. Then they get tested at Miami.

21. UCLA If Karl Dorrell's critics are right, this week's home game against BYU could be a big problem.

22. Wisconsin I'm a skeptic here. What can I say?

23. Georgia Tech Tashard Choice is fun to watch, that's for sure. Notre Dame was dismantled.

24. Boston College An impressive win, considering their atrocious start.

25. Rutgers Buffalo makes everyone look good, of course, but I'd forgotten how speedy Ray Rice really is.

--PB--

0 recs | Comment 27 comments

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Comments

USC at #1 is a mistake

Put me down for at least 1 loss for the Trojans by year's end. Booty struggled last year when Jarrett was out. Now he's gone and I don't think he can pick up the slack.

by aorist9 on Sep 3, 2007 9:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It's the defense

I'm not in love with that offense, either.

But I do think they're going to be a viciously tough team to beat based on that D.

--PB--

by PB @ BON on Sep 3, 2007 9:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the offense may yet improve

There were a lot of newbies on the field who were picking up even during the game, and Patrick Turner at WR should be back for Nebraska.

However, the D-line wasn't getting much pressure on Idaho's Enderle, and that's not encouraging for the next game against Keller. Assuming that Callahan decides to pass the ball this year, of course.

We'll see, in either case, in 2 weeks what SC looks like against a OOC team with a bit more depth.

by DC Trojan on Sep 4, 2007 12:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where's Michigan?

Oh...right...

by 40AS on Sep 3, 2007 9:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

West Virginia

They've never proven anything. I'd move them down to #5. I'd take Florida or LSU against West Virginia.

by Longhorn13 on Sep 3, 2007 9:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure they can hold the spot either

We'll see.

That offense is scary good, but the defense never seems to take a step forward.

--PB--

by PB @ BON on Sep 3, 2007 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty solid

I'm still skeptical about WVU's defense, but hard to argue them at #2. I was also skeptical of Wisconsin coming into the year, but they impressed me quite a bit on Saturday, I think they're at least in the mid to low teens. I like what you say about Hawaii. Not necessarily the 6th best team in the country, but could get that high if they run the table.

by Sweed4Heisman on Sep 3, 2007 9:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

HAVE to run the table

They close the season with Boise State and Washington, which is respectable, but the rest of the schedule is soft. Hawaii can't justify a good ranking unless they keep winning.

--PB--

by PB @ BON on Sep 3, 2007 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why

are you giving Mizzou such a high ranking?

by limnonectes on Sep 3, 2007 10:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

MO

Daniel, Temple, and Coffman are a fearsome trio on offense. They ARE good enough to win ten games, even with a so-so defense.

But as noted above, their coach sucks.

So, yeah. This rank may not stick.

--PB--

by PB @ BON on Sep 3, 2007 11:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Florida loses at least 3 games this year

Too young on D.

by Old Tex29 on Sep 3, 2007 10:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Not so sure about that

I'd be damn surprised if UF lost three.

We'll see, but Tebow looks real to me. And the speed on defense is there.

I think they're legit.

--PB--

by PB @ BON on Sep 3, 2007 11:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are we counting bowl games/SEC title game?

Because I'd be willing to lay down a wager on this one. (A gentleman's wager, of course).

I'd say they lose three games out of the following five:

LSU - similar level of talent to UF but more experience, especially on D.

Georgia - I'm pretty high on the Dawgs

Tennessee - usually a fairly tough game for UF

South Carolina - lost to the Gates last year by 1 point on the road when the GW FG was blocked--I'd almost be willing to bet on USC for this game. Spurrier always saves his best coaching for the alma mater, too.

Florida State -- they lost tonight, but I expect them to improve throughout the season due to the new coaches---Rick Trickett is a god among OL coaches.

Speed isn't everything on D, especially with such an inexperienced secondary. UF is definitely my overrated pick.

I think PSU is too high as well.

Other than that, I really like the picks.

by Old Tex29 on Sep 3, 2007 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You could well be right

And we just don't know yet.

Your reasoning is solid, though, and you're as likely to be right as I am.

Ain't it grand that we're talking about this, finally?

Now we just need Texas to give us a reason to get giddy.

--PB--

by PB @ BON on Sep 4, 2007 12:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

how 'bout...

instead of dropping Texas down 6 spots, you actually wait for them to lose a game?

What happens if they beat TCU by 35? Do they go back up to #4? A small drop to #6 and "maybe" OU jumping ahead of them, but seriously.

by bleed burnt orange on Sep 4, 2007 12:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

actually , yes....

that's what a poll based on the resumes of the teams means. you've been accustomed to pollster-inertia. you rank them at the beginning of the season and then you just drop teams as they lose and that's it.

the beauty of resume-ranking is that it changes a lot every week, especially early on. sadly, any ranking that comes this early in the year by definition sort of HAS to be based on a guess of how good they are. the further you get in the season, the more results you have to replace your guesses.

that's how I see it anyway.

by billyzane on Sep 4, 2007 12:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

BZ is right

OU played well against a bad team. Texas played poorly against a bad team. The ballot reflects this.

It's nothing to get worked up about, though, because if Texas keeps winning, up and up they'll go.

--PB--

by PB @ BON on Sep 4, 2007 6:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

my point is this...

i see your point with the "pollster-inertia", but when ranking teams you rank them because you actually think they are the 4th best or 5th best or BEST (1st) team in the country and NOT saying they were the 4th or 5th best team in the country THIS WEEK.

Lets say, for shits and giggles, I ranked Texas at #5 to start the season. If Texas wins 63-7 vs NMSU, I wouldnt immediately jump them up to #1 or #2. The first game, though usually a gimme game, is also a "feeler" game for a lot of big time schools. Sure I'd be impressed, but I dont see the importance of moving them up or down too drastically based on their WINNING performance in the first game. It would be the same as if they won by 2 TDs or 4. It really doesnt matter. Lots of people said it themselves that although Texas looked sloppy, there was never any real "fear" that they would lose.

Now if Texas looked bad in their first game to NOBODY STATE, and then dropped their 2nd game to HALF-A-BODY TECH I would definitely drop them down in the rankings accordingly, but if they continue to win you have to think they are still the #4 team in the country.

I mean, you have a pre-season evaluation of teams based on how good you think they will be. Everybody has a bad week here and there and that doesnt usually justify a significant drop in the rankings. Sure as each week progresses you improve on your rankings, but it doesnt totally get revamped each week.

Personally I would have dropped Texas to 6th or 7th, but not because of THEIR performance. I would have dropped them in ranking because of the performances of Oklahoma and Florida jumping Texas. At this point, I was able to RE-evaluate and put those teams ahead because they were the new 4th and 5th teams in the country. I definitely dont think Texas is worse than Hawaii, so I dont see justification in a lower ranking than the Warriors. Same goes with Louisville and possibly Georgia.

I dont know. I just felt that PB was trying NOT to be a Longhorn HOMER and keep them in the top 6 or 7, but actually ended up (to this reader, atleast) being a "Reverse Homer", if you will.

Oh hell, my point is lost in the essay....this post is too long. I wouldnt read it either.

by bleed burnt orange on Sep 4, 2007 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think we're on the same page in the end

it's just a different philosophy with the early-season rankings. if you're resume-ranking (which most of us claim to be doing), then there's an inherent cognitive dissonance that has to occur to do these early-season rankings.

Hawaii at 6? Hawaii doesn't deserve to be at six until they beat someone and they don't play anyone until like the last 2 weeks of the year. PB's ranking them on potential, which I hate, but what are you going to do when you have to try to resume-rank teams after just 1 week?

So in the end, since we're all trying to resume-rank here, the philosophical differences over early-season rankings don't matter for anything. All they do is highlight how utterly useless early season polls are.

by billyzane on Sep 4, 2007 10:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Right now, this whole exercise is stupid for a resume-based approach. What matters, of course, is how I evaluate the top, say, 10-12 teams in November and December, and then, the approach will be much different.

Up until then, though, it really doesn't matter.

As for Homer or Reverse Homer... well, I assure you I'm not trying to be categorized as either. I thought Texas deserved some sort of ding on my ballot for playing poorly in week one. So I dropped 'em in the ballot.

If they spank TCU next week? I'll be downright giddy. And my ballot will likely reflect it.

Even then, though, it's important to note how little it matters right now. This will all be real fluid for a while.

--PB--

by PB @ BON on Sep 4, 2007 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm thoroughly impressed....

by both of you for actually reading my post.

The polls only really matter in the end. Heck, if they drop to TCU my #6/#7 ranking goes out the window. We'd be lucky if we cracked the Top 20.

I dont expect that to happen, so hopefully next weeks debate is why PB didn't rank them #1. Too early in the week to get hyped? I don't think so.

TEXAS!

by bleed burnt orange on Sep 5, 2007 12:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where would Hawaii be

if Colt went down? Would you wait and see who steps up or just plunk them into thirtysomethingland?

I think you should employ a flexible strategy and put Hawaii around 12-15.

Nebraska should be on par with Missouri; the rushing offense makes them a step ahead of the Missou defense.

by whills on Sep 4, 2007 12:44 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Not so sure

Ohio State replaced 9 defensive starters after the 2005 season and yet they made it to the 2006 Nat'l Championship game. Granted they defitiely stunk up the NC game, but that's was expected by this fan.

Urban Meyer says this is THE fastest team he has ever put on the field. That from a coach who has coached his teams to Conference Championships 50% of the time. Florida may or may not make a BCS bowl this season, but with only 4 upperclassmen in their 2-Deep they are building a great deal of experience for future seasons.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championships run through OU and the RRS. It's not just "another game." ---

by HornChamps on Sep 4, 2007 12:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

PB

While I didnt see the game, Aggie Fans are ready to throw themselves off cliffs after the perfomance against MSU

notably:

OL didnt perform well
DL didnt get pressure
MSU had more offensive yards
McGee still doesnt throw well

by HMFIC04 on Sep 4, 2007 2:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Virginia Tech looked atrocious

All that talk about the emotions of the first game after the April massacre, and their team came out and stunk up the joint. I'd have them at #25, if not lower. I think LSU's offense is questionable (195 yds on 50 carries against MSU?), but they'll be good enough to knock off Va Tech.

From a dihard 'Bama fan friend of mine, 'Bama's DL is atrocious, and can't stop the run. I'd hold off on ranking them in the top 20, maybe put them at #23.
I'd put A&M at #24 and UCLA at #25 based on who their head coaches are alone. You knw they'll both find ways to lose a game they shouldn't this season.

I'd put Louisville ahead of Hawaii, and drop Missouri b/c of their lack of defense.

by Beergut on Sep 4, 2007 2:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs