RPI Matrix: Who's Most Deserving Of Top Seeds?
by Peter Bean on Feb 26, 2008 10:08 AM CST
in Basketball
30 comments
Writing this morning's game review, I couldn't help but think about Texas' overall resume. I found it difficult to imagine anyone having as impressive an overall set of wins as do the Longhorns, but I wanted to get a good side-by-side look before making any judgments.
Below is a matrix of wins and losses for each of what most consider to be the top six teams vying for top seeding in the NCAA Tournament. Much can and will change between now and Selection Sunday, but this gives you a nice look at where we are as we head into March. Since we know the selection committee will use RPI to supplement its seeding evaluations, opponents' RPI are included in parentheses. I only included wins in the Top 60 of the RPI for this matrix.
Some thoughts:
- Kansas' resume is awfully thin. We know they're a great team, but just in terms of on-court accomplishment, they and the Tar Heels are the clear trailers here.
- This diary and the comments therein over at Bruins Nation made me chuckle yesterday, and even more so today. I think UCLA's a terrific basketball team and when healthy, as likely as anyone to make the Final Four. But scoffing at Tennessee right after winning on the road in Memphis is dumb on its face. And in light of the accomplishments of the two teams so far this year, even dumber. The Bruins have four impressive road wins, and an outstanding neutral court win over Michigan State. They also have a loss to lowly Washington. I'm all for supporting your team, but give others their due when it's earned.
- Not only does Texas have the most quality wins of anyone in the group, but it owns wins over three of the contenders in the matrix. With a true road win at Pauley, a 19-point neutral court win over Tennessee, and a home win over Kansas, Texas has every right to be a top seed right now. The loss to Missouri stings, but the giveaway game to Wisconsin frustrates me more. What a collapse.
- Memphis has no quality games left on its schedule. If they drop one along the way, they're no lock for Houston.
Update [2008-2-26 16:15:23 by HornsFan]: Some have asked why I didn't include Duke. I easily could have, and perhaps should have. For the curious, Duke's resume:
Wins vs Top 60 in RPI
at UNC (3)
Wisconsin (13)
n-Marquette (15)
Clemson (23)
Miami (24)
Losses
n-Pittsburgh (25)
at Wake (62)
at Miami (24)
Other thoughts?
--PB--
0 recs |
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Wisconsin
So true, that loss hurts. We win that one and it really solidifies us as a top seed. We totally gave that away in the last minutes. And FT shooting could have at least sent that to overtime, if I remember correctly. Also a terrible charge call on DJ at the end.
by jimmer on Feb 26, 2008 10:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Best resume
Make that six-team comparison based on RPI Top 30 and watch the resumes of UCLA, KU and particularly Tennessee dry up. Also, everybody but soft-schedule Memphis has at least one black eye. Ours is Missouri. Mitigating factors: road game, and the Tigers were at their best just then. But a black eye nevertheless. Still, Texas has the best resume by far.
by NYCHorn on Feb 26, 2008 10:21 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Tennessee should be #1 right now
Memphis is impressive as well, but I'm not particularly scared of either as well as we're playing right now. They both looked a little sloppy on Saturday.
I think we should be ranked #3 based on schedule alone, over UNC and UCLA. I agree that if we finish out strong we could get Houston as a 1 seed, giving us a great shot at the Final 4 in San Antonio, where I would expect to see a lot of Burnt Orange.
by longhorn00 on Feb 26, 2008 10:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Remaining schedules
Just for reference, the remaining schedules and RPI's:
TENN
at Vandy (10)
Kentucky (65)
at Florida (58)
So.Carolina (133)
UNC
at BC (106)
FSU (76)
at Duke (5)
KU
at Iowa St. (138)
Kansas St. (42)
TTU (54)
at TAMU (46)
UCLA
at Az. St. (69)
at AZ (17)
Stanford (20)
Cal (77)
Memphis
Tulsa (158)
at So. Miss (153)
at SMU (279)
UAB (67)
Texas
at TTU (54)
Nebraska (109)
OSU (89)
by TheJeezus on Feb 26, 2008 11:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
if Tech is 54 in RPI
shouldn't they be tallied in the matrix above for Texas? that gives us the longest list of wins over top 60 teams.
if we actually do win out, including the Big XII tournament (which probably means beating KU again), there's no way we're not a #1 seed. just no way. #1 overall would probably require losses from the other UT and Memphis (c'mon UAB!)
i heard Tom Penders on the radio talking about UH's chances to get in the dance, and he made a comment that 1/3 of the criteria in the mind of the committee is how you finish the season (other 2/3 is record and strength of schedule). first of all, i'm not assuming he's right, but if he is, does that also pertain to seeding at the top? would us having the longest winning streak to end the season among the top teams carry some weight as to who gets regional priorit?
by littlevisigoth on Feb 26, 2008 1:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
Added Tech, which was inadvertently left off.
by Peter Bean on Feb 26, 2008 2:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Three groups
Texas and Tennessee are clearly the two best teams. UNC and UCLA aren't bad but did lose to their toughest opponents at home. Kansas and Memphis can't win away from home.
Check out the top 4 opponents of each.
Texas 3-1 1,8,9 -13
Memphis 3-1 7,12,17 -1
UCLA 3-1 16,17,20 -4
Kansas 3-1 17,27,33 -4
UNC 3-1 23,24,26 -5
Tennessee 3-1 2,6,10 -4
Memphis, UCLA, Kansas, and UNC have all lost to the best team they have played. Texas has the best record against the best teams. Tennessee has the advantage of playing slightly better teams but they lost to the horns and it wasn't a close game.
by Xerxes on Feb 26, 2008 11:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Lot of #4's up there
Would that be the Horns? Indeed.
by jimmer on Feb 26, 2008 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
S-curve
I keep hearing that the tournament committee uses an S-curve when placing teams in Regionals. Could someone explain to me exactly what they do and how it affects us trying to get the 1 seed in Houston. Do we have to fully pass Memphis in order to get it?
by Texas Wahoo on Feb 26, 2008 12:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
It all matters on how much you weigh
losses vs wins.
Texas has the best wins by far, but also has the most losses.
by Wells on Feb 26, 2008 12:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
KU hasn't beaten one current Top 25 Team...
Stunning if you think about it.
by the1austin on Feb 26, 2008 12:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
They're like the Kansas of football!
That would have worked better before the Orange Bowl, probably.
by Meekrob on Feb 26, 2008 2:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
duke
As much as I dislike them, I am confused as to why they were not included. At only 3 losses on the year and an rpi of 5, they have to still be considered as a potential #1.
Also, narrow down the chart to top 50 and texas' resume is even better. Its gonna be a fun next 6 weeks.
by hayzer13 on Feb 26, 2008 2:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
What should we be rooting for?
Other than obviously wanting us to be #1 seed in Houston bracket, would we rather:
a. Be a #1 seed out west where we may have to play UCLA in Phoenix
or
b. Be a #2 seed in Houston
I'm not rooting for us to loose, but what difference does it make if we are 1 or 2. Home court advantage is a much bigger deal. If Memphis wins out and the selection committee awards them the 1 seed in Houston, would they then reward us with the 2 seed or punish us with a 1 seed out west?
by Hot Hands on Feb 26, 2008 4:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Definitely (B)
Any seed in Houston would be preferable to a higher seed in any other region. If we're not gonna be in Houston, I don't care much what our seed is.
For now, I think earning the top spot in Houston is within reach, so just root like hell for us to win out. If/as things change, we can re-evaluate where things stand and against whom to root.
by Peter Bean on Feb 26, 2008 4:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Yeah, it's a little difficult with this many remaining games to know which upsets to pull for.
The good thing is that every team up there other than Memphis has a tougher road ahead than we do. Especially UCLA...yeesh!
by TheJeezus on Feb 26, 2008 4:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good Feeling
Even though playing in Houston/home is an advantage, we have been pretty great on the road so far. I think this team is good enough that a pretty deep run is inevitable, regardless of where we play.
If Augustin sticks to his word and DJ follows suit, I think 2009 might be a very scary year for texas sports.
by TWC on Feb 27, 2008 2:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ranking #4 vs #5 does not always matter
It would not matter much whether we came out as #4 or #5 overall, since we would be playing that other team either way. The #4 gets slightly easier opponents in the first rounds, but that probably counts less than the types of teams you're ready to face. The worry is coming in #7 or #8 and finding yourself against one of the top two teams in your regional final.
by Caradoc on Feb 27, 2008 10:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
UNC
I believe UNC has beaten Clemson twice (the first was a 2-point win in OT at Clemson). The chart shows only their home win (sorry to pick a nit). Clemson would have won both of those games easily if anyone on the team could make a free throw. Carolina will also have the excuse of not having Lawson for several games, though they have only lost the Duke game during that stretch. Since Duke and Carolina play once or maybe twice more, one or perhaps both will be out of the #1 seed discussion.
by Sleepy on Feb 26, 2008 4:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
One wonders
Why did Kansas and North Carolina put together such soft schedules -- schedules that would require them to go almost undefeated in order to get a #1 seed?
by JudenSmithFan on Feb 26, 2008 4:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
We might not like it....
But if the above mentioned teams win out (and I agree with hayzer that Duke should be included despite their slip last week, especially if they beat UNC again), the commitee will definitely put Tennessee and Memphis ahead of the Horns. I think we can argue all we want about SOS and RPI but the committee has the final say and will put the #1 ranked team on the top line and 1 loss Memphis right behind them. There is a human element here that will reward the accomplishments of the season. Remember undefeated St. Joe's from a couple years ago? I didn't look it up but I'd be surprised if the Atlantic 10 put their SOS/RPI anywhere near the top of the heap and they were a #1. We can point to the computer numbers til we're blue in the face but the committee is not going to slot a 4 loss team ahead of a 1 loss team, IMO.
I can see us being the 3rd or 4th ranked 1 seed as long as we make it to Sunday of the B12 Tourney, and they'd slot us in Houston and Memphis in Detroit should everyone win.
by Horndogger on Feb 26, 2008 4:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I am sure....
....happy our game with Oklahoma State is in the Erwin Center. Have you noticed the run they've put together? Straight victories over Baylor, @A&M, Kansas and @Missouri. Suddenly they look like a team that will finish .500 in the Big-XII. I hope they aren't in our half of the conference tournament bracket.
by HornChamps on Feb 26, 2008 10:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
HornsFan, you can add
a loss from Vanderbilt to the other UT's record ;]
by Ultra Horn on Feb 26, 2008 10:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Perfect
That could put us in front of them- fantastic!
by longhorn00 on Feb 26, 2008 11:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
In these
web user power rankings, it appears we are currently first, barely over the Vols.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/teamra...
Next year Mack and co will have to look to match the basketball team's record instead of the opposite way around. Imagine if we still had Durant =]
by Ultra Horn on Feb 26, 2008 11:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
down goes tennessee
Guess that helps and hurts us at the same time. If they are battling us for a #1, this helps. But, obviously it also helps our ratings for them to keep winning.
Thoughts?
by junglerules on Feb 26, 2008 11:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Vandy knocks off Tennesee, We just need Memphis
to lose one more...
by the1austin on Feb 27, 2008 2:08 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
It's really weird
rooting for us to win just the right amount of games (but no more) to get the right placement in the tournament. I miss football, where winning is always good.
by TWC on Feb 27, 2008 2:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Keep rooting for us to win
We have every incentive to win out; there's no need to be rooting for certain wins or losses. We win out we have a terrific shot at #1 in Houston. Just root for that.
by Peter Bean on Feb 27, 2008 9:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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