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Christmas in July

So I was thinking about how busy I am right now, and I thought, "Oh what a relief Summer will be!"  Then I thought, "Oh, crap!  Summer means no sports!  No baseball, basketball, or even... anything!"  That's where you guys come in...

In an effort to reduce offseason-fever, and thus save countless lives, consider this post your Offseason Stat-Dump Wishlist.  Anything you've always wondered about but never had the time (or geekiness) to crunch the numbers on?  Well, that's like my job, man, so dream your little hearts out.

Don't limit yourselves, here.  When the last Longhorn is tagged out (or hopefully crosses the plate, but, whatever), you're going to be licking the pages of last year's Eyes of Texas or your favorite lucky T-shirt for that last ounce of sports-talk like Amy Winehouse after a two song set at the Grammys.  Every suggestion you bring forth here is potentially ten to twenty more minutes of talking about the Longhorns, or just sports in general, before the dog days of July and August set in, and you start forming plots on Bill Little's life.

Give me all the particulars on your suggestions:  What stats you want, over what time period, what teams you want analyzed, and what info you hope to drag out of the numbers, etc.  The more you tell me, the less I have to come up with, which for me, like 54b, is always a good thing.

Go crazy now, or you'll go crazy later!

--Horn Brain--

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the Grammies?

my nana won best dentures back in '96.  greatest day of her life.

by billyzane on Mar 5, 2008 4:53 PM CST   0 recs

Like I watch the Grammys

You're lucky I knew that Amy Winehouse exists.

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 5, 2008 4:54 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Abrams 3pt Rundown

Phase A:
Career Three point percentage based on how his shot is set up.  Catch and shoot vs. pick and pop vs. off the dribble straight away vs. whatever else.

Phase B:
Career Three point percentage based on quarter.  An easy one.

Phase C:
Career three point percentage based on point margin.  How is he when we are leading?  When the game is close, when we are behind?

Phase D:
Career three point percentage based on game clock. Each 5 minutes of game clock, shot clock break down, etc.

Phase E:
Season Ties.  Conference play, out of conference, big 12 tournament, NCAA tourney, must win games, zero pressure games, rivalry games, against good opponents, against bad opponents etc...

I have no idear how to come by the information necessary, but I think it could prove interesting to further break down as prolific, and streaky a player as we have ever known here.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Mar 5, 2008 5:00 PM CST   0 recs

Strike Phase B

Thats what I get for not proof reading.  

Phase B is covered that in Phase D, and quarters only matter in Football and Street Fighter II.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Mar 5, 2008 5:02 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Great suggestions

This is a good example for everyone else's ideas.  Crazy, specific, crazy-specific.

I don't think I'll be able to do three pointers based on set up, but the others are all viable.  I'll keep this comment thread somewhere so I can put together a list of projects.

Keep them coming, guys!  If you're sure that it can't be quantified (i.e. How do we perform before/after Mack claps on a bad play) try to modify it into something that can be (i.e. How has Texas' Defense performed after turnovers over the last few years?).  Looky there, I just came up with an idea.  That one goes on the list.

It's that easy, guys, and you'll thank yourselves this summer.

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 5, 2008 5:12 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

I would like a cup of hot milk and...

the head of Alredo Garcia. And the Beattle's White Album.

My stats request besides the measurements, phone numbers, and favorite Axe Body Spray flavor for the entire Texas Palm Squad is...

A thorough study of Big XII Teams Home vs. Away Stats

Me and Coach Nomran Dale find iit absolutely ridiculous and inexcusable that teams like Tech and A&M can play like world beaters at home and like absolute dog shit at home...last time I checked, everyone played with 10 foot rims.

Seriously, how do you bookend a victory at home against a Top 10 opponent with two defeats by an average 50 points. And how do you score 56 points in the first half of one game and score just 10 in the first half of your next game just three days later?

Hickory!!!

Be nobody but yourself in a world that desperately wants you to be like everybody else.

by 54b on Mar 5, 2008 5:16 PM CST   0 recs

On the list

Thanks, 54b.

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 5, 2008 5:20 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

OMFG

My stats request besides the measurements, phone numbers, and favorite Axe Body Spray flavor for the entire Texas Palm Squad is...

Fucking "Axe Body Spray"! ...oh man, that's so far beyond hilarious that I'm now completely convinced that my own ramblings are mere schtick.

Bravo, sir. Bravo.

I would totally read the Washington Post every single day if I cared at all about helping Dan Steinberg keep his job.

by Bombilla on Mar 5, 2008 9:58 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Something recruiting oriented
For instance, how often does Mac offer someone that nobody has heard of in March, but by, say July, that guy is 4-star prospect?

If possible, use anything other than Ketch's list, since we know there is some hefty bias there. Not sure you can get old versions of ranking lists throughout a year, but it'd be cool to see how this plays out.

by jukey on Mar 5, 2008 5:21 PM CST   0 recs

On the "List of Investigatory Stuff"

For further looking-into.

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 5, 2008 5:23 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

I like it

How about recruiting stars compared to ultimate performance stats. If you did this with Texas and maybe a few of our rivals we could check the accuracy of the stars or compare development and scouting between schools.

I would also like to see the star rankings for the past few years that Texas cities or maybe even individual high schools have produced.

by 3rdgen on Mar 5, 2008 9:12 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

It would be balls-tastic...

... If I could make a color-coded map showing where the hot-beds of talent are.  Good idea.  On the list.

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 6, 2008 12:05 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Weather, Audience Participation & Day of Week
  1.  Margin of victory/defeat by men's basketball home games based upon point  in season (early, mid, late), attendance figures, day of week and start time  of game - during Rick Barnes era vs. previous ten years.
  1.  Margin of victory/defeat by football road games based upon point in season,  attendance figures, start time of game and weather conditions - during Mack  Brown era vs. previous ten years.

by BFAUT86 on Mar 5, 2008 5:57 PM CST   0 recs

Great idea

On the list

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 5, 2008 6:02 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

First down run/pass

All sorts of interesting studies to be done here. How often does GD pass on 1st down? In what situations? How often do we run on 1st? Which results in more yards per play? More first downs? Etc.

--PB--

by PB @ BON on Mar 5, 2008 6:32 PM CST   0 recs

There's a lot to be done about GD...

... I'm going to put this on the "GD List".

Maybe we can do a GD week in the offseason.  I'm sure that would bring back that same feeling of frustration and despair that we crave so desperately in the days before football season begins again.

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 5, 2008 6:39 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

you should totally finish all my unfinished work

from that column i wrote in the fall about measuring running back efficiency.  it's a pain in the ass and I don't want anything to do with it anymore.  i'm really selling this, aren't i?

by billyzane on Mar 5, 2008 6:50 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Can I? Huh, huh?

I think someone else is already doing this stuff.  Didn't someone post an article about this on like every major blog's diaries?  They have different numbers for success than you did, but it's the same concept.

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 5, 2008 7:05 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Modification of PB's

Can we break it into 3 categories (Run, Pass, Bubble-Screen)?

Disclaimer: I may be wrong.

by Shake on Mar 6, 2008 7:25 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Also

Can you do the same for the 1st Offensive play (and/or series) of each game, as well?

Disclaimer: I may be wrong.

by Shake on Mar 6, 2008 7:26 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

How'd you know

I was going to take june and july off from sports, just to give my fevered brain a chance to recoup, let my ganglia and neurons go alfresco so I could thoroughly enjoy the fall, starting in August, of course.

But, nooooooooooooooooo, not only do you have to invent shit, you even ask for more ideas in inventing shit, just to clutter the hemispheres with such extravagant, esoteric Horn info that I have to wonder how your hormonic output cycles with your moronic phases and how that correlates with the Horns won-loss record and the relative anger of your girlfriend (of record at the time).

Of course, if you had a real girlfriend you wouldn't have time for abstractions.

by whills on Mar 5, 2008 6:52 PM CST   0 recs

So...

How about I put you down as proposing that I try to quantify my girlfriend's effect on the games she attends?

Good idea, whills!  On the list!

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 5, 2008 7:03 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Well, that seems sooooo simple

that you could pencil whip it quickly.

So, here something I worked on but didn't conclude. The thesis is: How many real players do the Horns really have for 2008?

Part of this is the number of players available but then there must be some analysis of who has started at some point on the offense, defense or special teams. If you kick out specialty players (kickers and punters), you should arrive at a realistic pool of players who will constitute the primary starters this fall, and, the critical factor, the real depth that the Horns have.

With that in mind, I suspect the redshirt freshmen in spring training this year really represent one of the great unknown factors for the coming season, much more so than the incoming freshman class.

So, parse this at your pleasure:

Figures from EDSBS:

2004 class: 20 counters, 3 graduates, 9 students, 4 transferred.
2005 class: 16 counters, 0 graduates, 12 students, 1 transferred.
2006 class: 24 counters, 0 graduates, 19 students, 3 transferred.
2007 class: 25 counters, 0 graduates, 25 students.

These would be the Horns’ current players plus 2008 students plus walk-ons. This would include red-shirts and those with medical extensions (although medical sixth-year eligibility is possible, it’s not represented here). Plus certain players with eligibility who have graduated but enrolled in grad school (rare but possible ala Dallas Griffin).

The net of total counters minus (grads + transfers + non-students) = remaining players
2004    9 possible players
2005  12 possible players
2006  19 possible players
2007  25 possible players
         65 players in program (not counting walk-ons)
2008  20 incoming fall class
         85 scholarship players

Non-counters: (4+3+2) = 9 non-students + 8 transfers = 17 left UT system in 2004-5-6. This may alter during this summer.

Some of these had run-ins with the law, some with grades, some left for more playing time (or the perception thereof) or other inscrutable reasons.

The net of this is that from 2004-5-6 there are 40 players out of a possible 60. The 2008 team will have some 45 players with one year or less time in the program (some may have a semester more if they came in the spring of their year).  

That seems like a pretty common ratio, but it is worth noting that those remaining 40 experienced players include some on scholarship who have suffered serious injury and are never going to play and one with a heart condition whose scholarship is honored. And, of course, the deadwood. [This does not mention the six who will not be on the field for spring football due to surgeries and rehab but should return in the fall.]

Throw in those freshmen who actually played this year and you have about 40 core players, nearly half of those are sophomores, the rest juniors and seniors.

The general ratio of success of incoming classes is: (roughly) one third play and wind up starters, one third make the varsity and one third doesn’t pan out and this seems to support that thesis. And seems to indicate less than half of the incoming freshmen will see the field this fall despite what Mack has said.

Are we stronger as a team or not?

by whills on Mar 5, 2008 7:53 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

This will probably get done

between one hundred and one hundred and fifty times as we count down to kickoff.  It's too subjective, IMO.  Evaluating kids that haven't played since high school?  Not for me.  You shouldn't have a problem getting this itch scratched, though.

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 6, 2008 12:09 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

the return from the halftime break slump

that seems to happen with the bball teams that also coincides with the other team scoring a bunch.

seems to happen less this year, last night notwithstanding.

by the other Andrew on Mar 5, 2008 7:36 PM CST   0 recs

I am "that guy"...

that guy that is screaming at Barnes right before halftime:

You better score about 20 more points before the break while you can still shoot worth a crap!

I would love to see if it's justified.

On the list.

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 6, 2008 12:12 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Another GD item on my wish list

I've always been bothered by how often we come out from halftime and go 3 and out. Seems like just about every damn time, especially in close games.  So, to add some meat to my idea, I'd like to see something like this:

How often do we start a game with a 3 and out vs a scoring drive?

How often do we start the 2nd half with a 3 and out vs a scoring drive?

Is there any correlation if we start on offense vs defense?  What about if we start on defense and hold for a 3 and out vs giving up a score?

What about run vs pass selection?  Obviously you can add field position into the mix as well.

Anyway, that's my request.  You ask.  You get.

by the usual suspects on Mar 5, 2008 8:06 PM CST   0 recs

The baseline would be the '63 team

which scored on its first drive of the game in every single regular season game. They were your basic running team.  

This would make for a good historical correlation, too.

by whills on Mar 5, 2008 8:19 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Similar to above...

On the GD list.

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 6, 2008 12:13 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Recruiting Classes
Quantification of effects of 5 star recruits on programs.  I'll let you figure out how, or drop me a line when you go through with this and I'll try and help!

by pleaseplaykindle on Mar 5, 2008 9:05 PM CST   0 recs

Hopefully...

... I'll come up with a really cool way to look at recruiting, since that seems to be right below "flamethrower" on everyone's Santa list.  On the list.

Also, your name is on the list of "people who have foolishly offered to help".

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 6, 2008 12:20 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Basketball

Correlate home won/loss and margin to home attendance. Then do same for away games against other Big 12 opponents. Repeat for selected players to determine who performs best at home and on the road.

by Caradoc on Mar 5, 2008 9:38 PM CST   0 recs

Goes perfectly with 54b's Home/Road thing

Win/loss margin to home attendance would be an interesting correlation. On the list.

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 6, 2008 12:21 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

What do you mean no baseball in the summer!?

 title=
Watching this man pitch is baseball at its finest!

by goingforthecorner on Mar 5, 2008 9:45 PM CST   0 recs

Yawn...

... Oh, I'm sorry, what did you say?  I fell asleep when I realized that baseball games don't count until the month or two before playoffs... And Astros games don't count even then. [/bitter Houstonian]

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 6, 2008 12:03 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

I guess you have a point

Oh well... all summer all I'm going to do is play Super Smash Brothers Brawl. I honestly don't think I'll ever get bored again because of this game.

by goingforthecorner on Mar 6, 2008 12:23 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

OMG CAN I COME TO YOUR HOUSE!?!??!

I mean... That sounds fun, dork...

I have a Wii, myself.  Lovely, lovely, anti-summer time-machine...

Go boom, mothers. Please, just go boom.

by Horn Brain on Mar 6, 2008 12:30 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

I guess we all have a point

My choices are Zombie Panic! & Team Fortress 2.

I request the correlation between winning and the occurrence of penalties incurred by miscellaneous 3rd persons such as Mack's stepson. We should let him on the field more after that victory =].

More than just 10 wins?

by Ultra Horn on Mar 6, 2008 12:35 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

DORK ALERT!

Whhhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeewwwwhhhhhhhhhhhhheeeeeyoooo (or something like that)

Still...if my wife would let me have a WII, I would totally have one in the living room! Yes, that's pathetic, I know.

Obligatory WII Parody Link

I would totally read the Washington Post every single day if I cared at all about helping Dan Steinberg keep his job.

by Bombilla on Mar 6, 2008 8:56 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

The Astros

are never baseball at its finest.

by Meekrob on Mar 6, 2008 8:02 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

+/- basketball statistic

They have this +/- stat in the NBA. Here's an example from the Rockets/Pacers game.

So for example if DJ's +/- is a +10 in a given game, then that means when he's on the floor, Texas outscored its opponent by 15 points. If DJ plays the whole game then his +/- should be equal to the margin of victory/defeat.

A lot of people misinterpret this stat though. It doesn't tell you how good you are. It does give a hint on the best rotation used in that game, along with how well a player matches up against a team.

I want the +/- statistics of every player on the team for each tournament game (you're going to start this stat marathon in the summer right?). I also want qualitative analysis. If it's too hard to give me the +/- of each player, try giving us the +/- of every rotation. Basically, tabulate the points gained/lost between each substitution and list the 5 players in the rotation, along with the game time and score (score at beginning of substitution and score at next sub). This will tell us which rotation played the best against a certain team. It will also tell us who should've gotten more minutes in retrospect.

Of course, there are flaws to this analysis as well, but you said you are going to be bored!

Hopefully you're already familiar with this stat Horn Brain so it would be easy for you to figure out. I think looking at the play-by-play will be enough. Hopefully it includes substitutions.

by goingforthecorner on Mar 6, 2008 2:57 AM CST   0 recs

It sounds like

that involves a lot of work and time. And a powerful computer. Good luck Horn Brain =]

More than just 10 wins?

by Ultra Horn on Mar 7, 2008 1:52 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Explosive Plays

As we all know Mack and GD love their explosives.  I'd love to know how important they really are.  I'd love to see you take the 2005, 2006, and 2007 seasons and look at how drives with explosive plays end for us and opponents.  Really what I want to see is how often do drives with explosives result in TDs, lead to FGs, turnovers, punts, etc.  Maybe I'm pessimistic but I feel like in 2006 and 2007 our big plays too often ended in FGs whereas our opponents scored TDs, but in 2005 we converted our explosives into TDs more.  That might not be very clear, but I think you get the idea.

'Til Gabriel blows his horn...

by mattyj on Mar 6, 2008 9:04 AM CST   0 recs

The opposite would be negative plays

That is, gains for 0, 1, 2, etc., INTs, fumbles and how these balance out with the explosives, although I'd suspect as the explosives decrease for a game, the negatives increase (Ex. KSU).

However, I agree, we cashed the explosives more often in 2005. The net value of scoring on an explosive play as opposed to be knocked out at the five is vastly greater, particularly if you can't make 3rd and goal.

There was a recent diary (maybe here or SMQ) concerned with stats and successful plays (1st and 10, 50% or 5 yards would constitute a "successful" play) with respect to offense and RBs. That work may lay some of the ground work for this kind of analysis.

by whills on Mar 6, 2008 1:43 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

How about..

plays made by Colt on a scramble as opposed to in the pocket.  Or rather, good/failed plays in the pocket as opposed to good/failed plays being forced out.  How many passing and/or rushing yards Colt had scrambling as opposed to a play that wasnt broken down by a collapsed line.

by UTrumbo on Mar 6, 2008 9:38 AM CST   0 recs

Mad Dog---meh?

I often look at some of the injuries Texas football players get and wonder how many of them could have been prevented by better conditioning.  Broken ribs, fine.  Pulled hamstring?  I wonder.  Is there any way to compare Texas's injuries to other teams?  I know Mad Dog has won tons of awards, but it seems that it has been a while since all of that happened.  Is he losing it?

by oregonlonghorn on Mar 7, 2008 12:22 AM CST   0 recs

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