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The incongruity of our perceptions and probabilities

I thought I'd pass along this very short essay on probabilities and human perception. It goes a long way, I think, to illustrating how our perceptions of a circumstance are often clouded and incongruous with actual probabilities. Hat tip: Rob Neyer's ESPN blog

As the graph says, probabilities of the Brewers winning X amount of games. The first 99.99% mark...

Brewerprobabilities

As the graph says, probabilities of the Brewers winning X amount of games. The first 99.99% mark is 52 games, then it goes to 60 and then increments by 5. This is using a binomial distribution based on my WAR projections, which give a win% of .538 Larger version here: http://img.imgcake.com/brewerprobabilities.jpg

Morning Coffee Looks At Probabilities

Texas Longhorns news and notes.

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