We have to be careful not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but the playoff picture is starting to come into focus.  Here's a look at the AFC playoff picture and some of the most likely scenarios.  There are 16 teams in the AFC, and only 3 are effectively out of the playoff race: CIN, KC, and OAK.  A couple others would have to put together rather incredible runs to make the WC: HOU, CLE, JAC.  San Diego still has a shot at beating out Denver for the division, although they have an uphill climb.

We should probably pencil in Tennessee for the #1 seed at this point - can you say 2004 Steelers anyone?  The #2 seed in more interesting.  DEN, PIT, BAL, and all 4 teams in the East have a good shot at it.  That's right, Miami has a good shot at a bye week a year after barely eluding 0-16 in 2007.  Just looking at the number of teams and the schedules, it's most probable that one of the teams out of the East goes on a run and secures a bye with a 12-4 record.  Since that division is so balanced, though, it's also very possible that they beat each other up, leaving a bye up for grabs.  Whoever wins the West will probably end up as the #4 seed.

The Colts are the most likely candidate for the top WC spot.  They're 6-4, own tie breakers against BAL, PIT, and NWE, have a fairly easy schedule, and finish at home against the Titans, who will surely have clinched everything by then.  The #6 seed will probably come from the East, although whoever finishes second in the North will have a shot as well. 

Now that we've covered the general picture, here's a look at our path to the playoffs:

First, a quick look at the Steelers schedule.  We've played decently well since the "tough" part of our schedule began with 2 close losses, one close win, and one very convincing win.  The schedule doesn't get any easier: after a Thursday night Bengals game, we play 4 winning teams in a row, including 3 on the road.  We finish at home against Cleveland.  Just based on what we've done so far this year I'd say we should end at least 10-6, we have a good chance of being 11-5, and we're not very likely to make it to 12-4.  11-5 is realistic because it has us going .500 against winning teams while beating up on the lesser foes. 

Obviously job one is winning our division.  Seeing the Ravens get embarrassed by the Giants was a welcome sight.  Their schedule is about par with ours from here on out.  They are 1 game back and 1 divisional game back from us, so if they beat us in Baltimore, it could completely knot up the division.  Point differential (which favors us right now) could suddenly become important.  That game is the biggest one left on our schedule. 

If we do win the division, getting the bye week is important.  It's an extra week of rest for a banged up team, it's avoiding dangerous WC teams in the first round, and it means at most we'll have one road game in the playoffs.  With our OL, that's a big deal.  The Broncos don't seem poised to make a big push, but the Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins are playing well against easy schedules.  We want all those teams to lose as much as possible (even rooting for the Browns tonight), and we really need to beat the Patriots. 

If we don't win the division, we'll still probably make it to 10-6.  With our 2 (at least) NFC losses we have a good conference record, so tie breaker situations favor us.  The Colts are a team to worry about, since they beat us.  Aside from the Baltimore game, the one in New England is the most important. 

Our offensive line has stabalized a little in the last few weeks, not surprisingly due to better play-calling, quicker passes, and lesser opponents.  I could talk about how the Giants will change all that (and they might) but with the meat of our schedule coming up, I'd like to point out how thin we are at OL.  In camp, we had our starting 5, plus Starks, Stapleton, Essex, Mahan, and Hills.  That's decent depth.  Well, we traded Mahan, lost Simmons for the season, and Smith's status for the forseeable future is uncertain.  If Smith pulled a hammy and would be out 2-4 weeks, we'd be fine long term.  These back issues can spiral out of control, though, so it's possible what we have now is all we'll have for the season.  Starks will be okay (assuming Zierlein doesn't take out a knee or poison him) and Stapleton won't be terrible, but we now have one marginal backup (Essex) and some practice squad players who will probably have to take the field at some point. 

I'm not going to complain about Essex as a cheap backup, but he's definitely nothing more than that.  He can play both tackle and guard, but he's not going to contribute anything guard, and he's not very good at tackle.  Hills was a flier-type draft pick this year, and so far it's been ugly.  I don't know if he's progressed at all, but I'd rather not find out.  Parquet might be a better option than Hills at this point.  I don't think we're going to confuse him with someone with upside, but he's been around for a couple years and he has a bigger frame than either Colon or Essex.

We don't have a real backup guard or center, and that's a concern.  If Hartwig got injured, we'd have to shuffle everyone around, which isn't going to be pretty.  If Kemo got injured, our line suddenly looks very weak.  Since we have the roster space, I'd like to see us take a long look around the NFL for potential contributers at guard or center on teams' practice squads.  If nothing else, maybe it's time to promote Doug Legursky. 

Does anyone have any other thoughts about the backups?  Any notes from the preseason or anything? 

In the wake of losing Romo for a few weeks and possibly seeing the last of Pacman, Jerry Jones traded 1st, 3rd, and 6th round picks for Roy Williams (the WR).  This is an shaky move on several fronts: 

- Williams is a good player, but he's only had one 1000+ yard season, and that was also the only season he played in 16 games.  He's caught good but not great TD numbers in his first four seasons as well. 

- Williams hasn't been playing well this season because he's grouchy, and he's in the last year of his contract with a bad organization.  For some perspective, the Patriots also aquired a receiver who wasn't playing well because he was grouchy and who was in the final year of his contract with a bad organization, but he was a lot better than Roy Williams, they paid a 4th round pick for him, and they got him for the whole season. 

- Williams signed a new deal with the Cowboys, but I'm sure the Cowboys could have aquired Williams for similar money next year (probably in the $8-10M/yr range), so they just paid over 2/3 of their "value" in 2009 draft picks for 10 games of Roy Williams, 3-4 of which their starting QB will miss. 

- The Cowboys don't need more offensive playmakers.  Barber, Jones, Owens, and Witten are all great playmakers.  Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin are decent complements, and have been reasonably productive.  Everyone looked at these guys pre-season and said they're going to the Super Bowl.  If your Super Bowl caliber offensive playmakers can't get you to the Super Bowl, why not try to add more?  This is one thing that's better about football than baseball: you play teams, not players. 

- The offense Jones is upgrading has scored at least 24 points in every game they've played.  They're 3rd in both yards and scoring.  Why does Jones think adding another guy where they're already stacked is going to make a big difference?  The Redskins held the ball for 38+ minutes against them, which is how they beat them.  Maybe they should have picked up a LB that can cover.  Maybe Jerry Jones can buy a bottle of extra strength chemistry to make everyone happier with their roles.  Buying another quality playmaker with a superstar ego isn't going to fix their problems. 

- Obviously Jones understands the state of the CBA better than I do, but he's gambling that there won't be a cap in 2010.  Is there anyone who doesn't have a big contract with the Cowboys?  They have to be so far above the cap that if the new CBA institutes a salary cap, they're going to crash and burn.  They're giving away draft picks and payroll like they were just laying on the ground.  It reminds me of the last days of the 90's Cowboys' dynasty minus the playoff victories and Super Bowls. 

We'll see if this move helps them in the short term, but it's a disaster for their long term outlook.  Stranger things have happened, but I doubt they'll beat the Giants or Bucs, and if Romo is ready to go after the bye, he could walking into Washington with a sore pinky, a 5-4 record, and a 1-2 divisional record.  Jones has built his team with unstable players, and it's situations like this that encourage all those players to break down.  This is why the Cowboys are so media friendly. 

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Blitz started reviewing every Steelers player by position, so I'll help him out a bit and do the DB's.  I don't have YPA numbers for these guys, so if someone wanted to add those for the starters, that would be cool. 

Ike Taylor

Taylor has been solid at CB.  I'm pretty sure he's only been beaten deep once (sadly by a white former college QB), which resulted in an odd but probably correct PI call.  Ike is very good at staying with WR's in coverage, but not always great at playing the ball if QB's challenge him, and this year is about par for him.  Teams have not challenged him a whole lot this year, so it's hard to judge his overall performance.  He has yet to record a deflected pass or an interception in 5 games, which is incredible for a starting CB who isn't terrible.

Bryant McFadden

It's difficult to say if McFadden is benefitting from playing full time or if he truly took a step forward this offseason, but he looks like a different player.  When he came in during nickel situations last year, he looked passive.  In the games he's played so far, he's been the Steelers best CB.  I doubt McFadden is quite the athlete Ike is, but this year he's playing the ball as well as any Steeler corner I've seen since Woodson.  It's still early in the season, so it's possible opposing teams will adjust some to him and find a weakness (maybe double moves?), but so far it's been great to have a playmaker at CB. 

Deshea Townsend

Coming off his best year as a pro in 2007, Townsend has had some injuries and been a little disappointing so far this year.  When McFadden started playing well, I was excited to see the 2007 version of Townsend come back into the lineup as a nickel back, but when crunch time came against Baltimore, he gave up a big pass play and missed the tackle that put the Ravens inside the 10.  He could still be affected by the injury, but if he doesn't look more like 2007 Deshea before the end of the season, I'll be even more nervous about letting McFadden walk at the end of the season. 

Troy Polamalu

There are two types of safeties that get recognition in the NFL: hard hitting, blow-up-the-runner strong safeties, and ball-hawking free safeties.  So far in 2008, Polamalu has been the superhuman combination of those two.  We know the story: after earning his hype in 2004 and 2005, he fought injuries, flew past ball carriers, and got beat in coverage in 2006 and 2007.  Well, I would say he's back, but that doesn't do him justice.  So far this season, he's broken up numerous deep passes, made 3 interceptions including maybe the most acrobatic catch I've ever seen, thrown TE's into the backfield on running plays, flown to the ball on screen plays and MADE THE TACKLE, showed incredible range, limited Kellen Winslow while covering him for a whole game, tackled a guy behind his back, and jumped over the offensive line.  He's one of the best run defenders on our team, and he might be the best pass defender as well.  I don't know how he could be anything other than the most versitile player in the NFL and the defensive player of the year if he keeps playing like this.  Some of his best competition for DPOY will probably come from Harrison and Woodley. 

Ryan Clark

Clark has gone from being solid but unexciting to desperately missed to back towards solid but unexciting.  He's played more in run support than in years past, and he's looked good doing it.  He has a couple of nice pass breakups, but missed a read and was the primary perpetrator on a fairly long TD pass against the Jags.  He hasn't stood out much, good or bad, which is fine.  We need a solid guy who won't make huge mental mistakes, and that's what we have in him. 

 William Gay/Anthony Madison/Tyrone Carter/Anthony Smith

I haven't seen these guys on the field much on defense, but a couple have really made their presence felt on special teams.  Madison in particular has been a force on the coverage units recently.  Gay may have gotten the most playing time of the bunch, and he didn't look like a liability in nickel packages against the Browns. 

Buried in this article about Ben (who you know is going to play), Tomlin sounds doubtful that Eason will play on Sunday.  He's the only important guy other than Ben that missed practice on Thursday.  That could be the final straw for our DL that F's up our depth and rotation against a team that's going to run the ball.  The only pickup that could help us at all is Paxson off the PS.  I'm not one for complaining about injuries, and I'm glad the team isn't either, but jeez all friday.  Here's who's probably out for this game:

- Our 2x Pro Bowl RB, our first round draft pick RB, and our starting FB.

- Our starting RG

- 2 starting DL's, including our multi Pro Bowl NT, and our top backup DE. 

- Robo-Punter

For whatever reason all our injuries are at 2 positions.  I guess the good news is we're actually going to miss Nick Eason.  Who saw that one coming 6 months ago?  The other good news is that our top 7 DL's have all played well, when we were worried about the #4 guy a few months ago.  I think the better rotation is really helping them out. 

One thing that has bothered me a lot as a Steelers fan over the years is the team's contentment with superficial success.  The team is unwilling to take risks and identify and preemptively fix problems when things are going fairly well.  How many times have we heard people excuse the OL because "Parker was leading the league in rushing when he got injured"?  It doesn't matter what the stat sheet says, we couldn't run the ball when we needed to, and Ben's sacks/drop back were out of hand.  I'm all for encouraging mediocre players to get the most out of them, but saying they're better than they seem should not be confused with them actually being good players.  People credit Arians with a successful offense because Ben's stats are good, even if we couldn't move the ball consistently and Arians was awful at making adjustments.  If you watched the games last year, it was easy to see that he's not a very good offensive coordinator.  All the team's faults got a pass last year "because Tomlin won the division and made the playoffs in his first year".  We had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL last year, and hit many teams at their lowest points.  We padded our stats and record against the Bills and 49ers, and ignored losses to bad teams like the Jets, Broncos, and Cardinals. 

Now this year, we play a great all-around opener (even Arians) and then win a tough but badly played divisional game, and people have already started making excuses for the offense.  We couldn't move the ball on the ground before the 4th quarter, and Ben had big pressure whenever the Browns brought a blitz.  Ben still got sacked on 5 of 39 attempts, which isn't any better than last year.  We didn't spread the ball around, we didn't get the TE's or the RB's (aka "all the weapons" we have so we don't need a good OL) involved in the passing game, and we started running the clock out in the 3rd quarter.  We're lucky the Browns made some key mistakes at the end, or we could be 1-2. 

This week we played an identical game against a good (albeit incomplete) defense with a great coordinator, and we looked beyond terrible.  We made no adjustments from the Browns game, because, hey, we won.  The encouraging news about the Eagles game is that since we lost in such horrendous fashion, we'll have to face up to the fact that Arians and the OL suck, Ben needs to do better with hot reads, and we need to have some plan in place to deal with big blitzes.  Johnson did us a huge favor by running the same blitzes over and over instead of just at key moments.  If we had just been beat on a few blitzes, like the Browns game, we could have ignored the fact that we have no answer for it.  Now we HAVE to deal with it.  Part of me hopes that we play so poorly on offense against Baltimore that Tomlin fires Arians on the spot.  If we play okay for the rest of the season and lose in the first round of the playoffs, my fear is that we'll still have Arians next year because "he helped us get to the playoffs, so he must be doing something right." 

On the other side, I can't complain about the defense.  Everyone is playing pretty well except Foote.  I also hope that a great defense doesn't cover up the deficiencies on the offense - like if we had somehow beaten Philly on a couple turnover FG's or something. 

The preseason is upon us, and while the outcomes of the games aren't very important, it's always interesting to see how the rookies and second year players are doing.  Here's some stuff I noticed from the bits of the Browns' game I saw and looking at the stats/game summaries elsewhere.  Feel free to add other observations (especially if you saw any of the action)

Jets vs Browns:  Both Cleveland QB's looked decent (Anderson's numbers don't include a sizable PA call), especially for the first game of the preseason.  I don't like Quinn, but he looked good in the short passing game.  I didn't see him throw anything downfield and he did throw an int, though.  Rogers and Williams didn't do anything terribly impressive while I was watching, but I was watching pretty casually.  My hope for Rogers is that he's a better 4-3 UT than 3-4 NT (i.e. better at penetrating than achoring).  The stats show he had 2 tackles on runs of 3 and 5 yards, so good news on that front, although it really doesn't mean much.  Those 8 yards were the bulk of Thomas Jones' total for the day, so don't get too excited.  The big news, though, is that Favre is a Jet.  Did you know Favre is a Jet?  Favre is a Jet.

Giants vs. Lions: Manning wasn't great, and Kitna (perfect QB rating on 7 attempts) and Calvin Johnson both looked very good.  If Johnson and Williams can play well together, they could have a scary passing game.  They also probably have the best QB in the NFC north now (funny, huh?), so they really could go 10-6 this year.  Other than a big run by Jacobs, no one could run the ball, which basically means nothing.  Andre Fluellen, a 3rd round 3-4 DE prospect we passed on had a sack. 

Ravens vs. Patriots: Brady didn't play and all the backup QB's were ugly (3 ints, 50%, 4 ypa).  One of these days all those "probable, knee" injuries will catch up to Brady, and Matt Gutierrez will be waiting.  LaMont Jordan (I didn't even know the Pats had him) had a good day running against 2nd and 3rd teamers, but Moroney was bad (6 for 6yd, long: 6yd).  The Ravens couldn't run either.  Boller put up his classic numbers (11 for 15, 102 yd, 0 td, 1 int, 1 fumble), and the other QB's weren't impressive.  Against the scrubs, Flacco was 0-3 with a fumble.  NE's top 3 picks all made the stat sheet with tackles.  Crable had 4 tackles, .5 sacks, and an int off Boller.

Saints vs. Cardinals: It's early, but the Saints could have an even better passing attack than before.  First off, all 3 QB's looked very good.  Secondly, Meachem (first round WR last year) has been great in camp and had a very impressive showing (4 for 129 yd, 1 td) in his first pre-season game this year.  Colston and Shockey didn't play, but you know they'll be productive.  Finally, if Adrian Arrington doesn't get arrested, he could prove to be another 7th round steal at WR.  Reggie Bush, on the other hand, put up his classic numbers (7 for 22, 3.1 ypa), so the running game could really drag down the offense.  Maybe they should follow New England's lead and just go 4 wide all day.  They have the players.  On the other side, Leinart got the start and put up some good numbers himself.  None of the draft picks (ther than Arrington) stood out.  On the last play of the first half, though, Orien Harris sacked Brian St. Pierre. 

Chiefs vs. Bears: I didn't look too closely, but the only thing that stood out was that team midget Garrett Wolfe had 89 yards from scrimage and had 2 big plays. 

Did I miss anything?  Did anyone get to watch DTV or local games and see anything interesting that ESPN didn't say? 

Aaron Schatz, the creator of Football Outsiders and Football Prospectus did an interview with a local radio station here in Dayton, and he had some pretty interesting things to say. 

For general NFL thoughts, his book predicts that the Texans will make the playoffs, which perked my interest, because I said as much in our prediction thread a couple weeks back.  His arguments were that they had a much higher number of injuries than in previous years, and thus were likely to be more fortunate this year.  He also said that teams that draft a group of talented defensive players within a small time period, as the Texans have, tend to take big steps forward 2 or 3 years later, citing examples of the Panthers and Bears earlier this decade.  Lastly, he likes Schaub, and Rosefels looked good last year too. 

The local guys asked him about the NFC North, and this is where I thought it was really interesting.  First off he tore the Browns a new one, saying they'd go 6-10 and that they had a lot of the signs of the classic  "take a step back" teams of years past.  He specifically mentioned Anderson as a guy who may have played over his head, but admitted he had some of the same questions about Romo last year .  He also talked about the schedule differential, the uncertainties with bringing in 4-3 guys to play 3-4, and the anomolously low number of injuries they had last year compared to previous years.  Their reliance on their playmakers on offense (Lewis, Winslow, Edwards) and their lack of secondary depth could amplify this if a key guy got hurt. 

Lest Browns trolls fans think I'm being biased, he also said that the OL for the Steelers is the worst it's been in 10-15 years and that he doesn't think we'll win the division because of it and the schedule.  That honor went to the Ravens, whose secondary won't be as bad with injuries as last year, although when asked, he couldn't give an answer for their offense.  He also has the Bengals going 6-10. 

So basically, he's spot on with the Browns, but completely wrong about the Steelers :)