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The Boy

Apr 10, 2008 Dec 02, 2008 811 2501

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Like Christmas music, wool socks and static electricity...

...we can add another Winter tradition to the list: Mizzou tight ends getting screwed over by the Big 12 coaches.

That's right, the Coaches' All-Big 12 awards have been announced.

1st-Team Mizzou players

WR Jeremy Maclin
DL Ziggy Hood
LB Sean Weatherspoon
DB William Moore (unanimous)
PK Jeff Wolfert

2nd-Team Mizzou players

RB Derrick Washington
TE Chase Coffman
OL Kurtis Gregory
DL Stryker Sulak

Honorable Mention

QB Chase Daniel
WR Tommy Saunders
OL Tim Barnes
OL Colin Brown
DL Jaron Baston
LB Brock Christopher
DB Castine Bridges (?)
DB Justin Garrett (??)
KR/PR Jeremy Maclin

I realize it's hard to complain too much--a few years ago, it was amazing to see a handful of second-teamers in Mizzou uniforms, much less nine on the 1st- and 2nd-team--and I realize that Jermaine Gresham is by all means a helluva tight end, but...come on.  Not only is Chase Coffman the best tight end in the conference, he's the best tight end I've ever seen.

Then again, this tells you everything you need to know about the validity of these stupid exercises:

* Justin Garrett = honorable mention all-conference
* Carl Gettis = not

Good god, what a waste of time.  Sorry I even acknowledged this with a post.

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Big 12 'BTBS' (mostly) Final Rankings

Here's something fun: of the 10 Big 12 defenses that took the field last weekend, nine of them got smoked.  Only that of Texas (and, technically, Iowa State and K-State, who didn't play) did not.  So when you get to the defensive rankings and DON'T see that Mizzou fell in every category after Saturday's KU game, that's why.

Mizzou's defense wasn't alone--pretty much every D-lineman, LB, or DB in the Big 12 got roasted like TurBaconDucKen with a side of green bean casserole last weekend.  That doesn't make more palatable the thought of Kerry Meier torching poor Justin Garrett yet again, but I'm just throwing it out there.  Our defense was no better or worse than 90% of the league last week.

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

Rank Team Score Last Wk's Rank Last Wk's Score Change
1 Texas 238.3
1 241.6 -2.7
2 Oklahoma 234.9
2 240.9 -6.0
3 Oklahoma State 218.2
5 217.7 +0.5
4 Texas Tech 217.0
3 226.4 -9.4
5 Missouri 216.1
4 218.1 -2.0
6 Nebraska 206.5
6 209.5 -3.0
7 Kansas 204.3
7 205.1 -0.8
8 Baylor 192.8
8 188.5 +4.3
9 Kansas State 178.3
9 179.9 -1.6
10 Colorado 174.5
10 172.0 +2.5
11 Texas A&M 169.5
11 169.9 -0.4
12 Iowa State 166.1
12 166.7 -0.6

* Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+.  200 = average.  >200 = good.  <200 = bad.  From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

Biggest (Good) Mover: Baylor, for almost beating Tech.

Biggest (Bad) Mover: Texas Tech.  The most interesting downward move, however, was OU dropping six points.  We'll explore where that drop came from after the jump.

Category rankings and Big 12 Title Game projection after the jump.

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Mizzou Links, 12-2-08

I'm sorry, but I just can't respect any movie that a) stars Tom Cruise, and b) stars Tom Cruise wearing an eyepatch.  Just can't do it.

Chase Daniel: chippy.

Quarterback Chase Daniel was in an extraordinarily chippy mood during his weekly turn at the podium. When asked about Oklahoma’s defense, Daniel came prepared with some offensive statistics for several of his teammates.

“They’re a great defensive team, but you want to talk about their guys,” he said. “What about our guys? I’ve got some stats right here.”

With that Daniel rattled off several season and career numbers for six of his teammates, reading off from a piece of paper — though he could probably recite them for memory. He mentioned numbers for Chase Coffman, Jeremy Maclin, Tommy Saunders, Jared Perry, Jeff Wolfert and Derrick Washington.

“You look at their weapons. Well, I want to look at ours and what we have to bring to the table,” he said. “I feel good about our guys.”

...

A couple things at play here: Daniel’s got something for the Sooners. That’s obvious. He grew up a Texas fan, so no surprise there. But over the last three years, Daniel’s been more than willing to discuss and dissect the defensive players for every other team on MU’s schedule. Just not Oklahoma.

“We want respect, and it’s not going to be given to us,” he said. “We just have to go out and get it.”

I love the attitude, but I'm scared enough about poking the bear that...yeah...back it up, Chase, and I'll love you to pieces...the KC Star has more.

Big 12 Championship Links!

  • Mutigers.com: official release
    Oklahoma has won 18 of the last 19 games in the series, dating back to 1984, and if you take it back to 1970, they’ve won 30 of the last 33 meetings between the two schools. Since 1946, the series stands in OU’s favor by a whopping 49-7-1 margin – that’s when the separation really began by the Sooners from the Tigers, as in 1945, a Mizzou 14-6 win over OU evened the series at 16-16-1 at the time.
  • Soonersports.com: Sooner Scouting Report
  • The Trib: Tigers vs Sooners: The Sequel
  • PowerMizzou: Tigers know few have faith
  • Post-Dispatch: Missouri not distracted as it focuses on OU and Big 12 Title Game
  • Bryan Burwell: Missouri has a chance to defeat Oklahoma, but it is a slim one
  • Tulsa World: Sooners' depth will be tested
  • Daily Oklahoman: Bob Stoops addresses Sam Bradford injury, Missouri
  • Daily Oklahoman: Tigers way short of expectations
  • Daily Oklahoman: Thumbs up for OU quarterback Sam Bradford

Naturally, Gary Pinkel is pretty happy about Dave Christensen's promotion (they've been working together since 1980!), as are Christensen's players...

In football recruiting news, it looks like Mizzou sent out a new offer for 2010: Blaine Gabbert's younger brother, Tyler.

Mizzou Basketball links!

Finally, it's time to get fully into 2003 Kansas State mode...live it, love it...

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Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops said that sophomore quarterback Sam Bradford has torn ligaments in the thumb on his left (non-throwing) hand and will have to have surgery on the hand after the Big 12 championship game Saturday against Missouri in Kansas City.

Stoops said Bradford would be fine to play against Missouri but would likely have to wear a soft cast on his left hand to help support the injury and so that he can handle snaps. That's why Bradford was having such a problem Saturday night dropping snaps in the 61-41 win at Oklahoma State.

From the DMN's College Sports blog (among hundreds of other sources, I guess). Expect a lot of shotgun from OU on Saturday--they ran that most of the second half last week because of the dropped snaps.

comment about 20 hours ago Rockmnation_tiny The Boy comment 0 comments 0 recs

Mizzou following losses

In response to the "How will Mizzou respond to a stinging KU loss?" question floating around, I thought I'd look at how Mizzou has historically responded in such a situation.

Since World War II, there have been 14 instances of Missouri losing to Kansas, their biggest rival, and then having another game to play.  (Until the mid-'90s, Missouri ended its season with Kansas almost every year, so there are plenty of cases where Missouri lost to KU, then didn't actually have another game to play.)

Year Kansas Result Next Week's Result
2005 Kansas 13, Missouri 3 Colorado 41, Missouri 12
2004 Kansas 31, Missouri 14 Missouri 17, Iowa State 14
2003 Kansas 35, Missouri 14 Missouri 41, Nebraska 24
2000 Kansas 38, Missouri 17 Texas 46, Missouri 12
1999 Kansas 21, Missouri 0 Missouri 34, Texas Tech 7
1997 Kansas 15, Missouri 7 Missouri 42, Tulsa 21
1995 Kansas 42, Missouri 23 Colorado 21, Missouri 0
1994 Kansas 31, Missouri 14 Missouri 32, Hawaii 32
1983 Kansas 37, Missouri 27 BYU 21, Missouri 17 (Holiday Bowl)
1981 Kansas 19, Missouri 11 Missouri 19, SMU 17 (Tangerine Bowl)
1973 Kansas 14, Missouri 13 Missouri 34, Auburn 17 (Sun Bowl)
1972 Kansas 28, Missouri 17 Arizona State 49, Missouri 35 (Fiesta Bowl)
1968 Kansas 21, Missouri 19 Missouri 35, Alabama 10 (Gator Bowl)
1960 Kansas 23, Missouri 7* Missouri 21, Navy 14 (Orange Bowl)

* Of course, this one goes down in the Missouri history books as a win.

Mizzou has gone 9-5 following KU losses.  Under Gary Pinkel, they're 2-1.  They laid an egg in 2005 in Boulder, but they followed the loss with their most dramatic wins of the season in 2003 and 2004.

The other thing to look at is...with Chase Daniel at QB, how has Mizzou responded to losses of any kind?

Year Mizzou Loss Following Week
2006 Texas A&M 25, Missouri 19 Missouri 41, Kansas State 21
2006 Oklahoma 26, Missouri 10 Nebraska 34, Missouri 10
2006 Nebraska 34, Missouri 10 Iowa State 21, Missouri 16**
2006 Iowa State 21, Missouri 16 Missouri 42, Kansas 17
2007 Oklahoma 41, Missouri 31 Missouri 41, Texas Tech 10
2007 Oklahoma 38, Missouri 17 Missouri 38, Arkansas 7
2008 Oklahoma State 28, Missouri 23 Texas 56, Missouri 31
2008 Texas 56, Missouri 31 Missouri 58, Colorado 0

** Of course, this one goes down in MY history books as a win, ahem.

Not including the 2006 Sun Bowl loss to Oregon State (there was no game following that one, obviously), Mizzou has lost eight games with Chase Daniel a few yards behind center.  Five times, they have responded in style--when they win in these instances, they win big (by an average of 44-11).  The three other times, they have stumbled further.  When they have to respond to a loss by playing a bowl team, they've gone 3-2.

All this said, OU is clearly the best team Mizzou's had to play after a KU loss (since at least the '60s) or a Chase Daniel loss, so...yeah, this probably doesn't say a whole lot.  Just found it interesting.

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Mizzou-SMU series dropped...

...according to Pony Pride. It's a subscription site, but you can see the headline. It appears that we're the ones who dropped the series, which makes sense considering we'll need an extra home game in 2010 now that the MU-KU Arrowhead deal has been expanded, and I believe we were scheduled to play in Dallas that year (I don't know for sure, as the mutigers.com Future Schedules page has already been updated. We'll see if the series is re-jiggered or just dropped altogether.

comment 1 day ago Rockmnation_tiny The Boy comment 20 comments 0 recs

Mizzou-ORU: Be...side the Box Score

I plan on doing a little stat analysis for each Mizzou game, but it's not to the play-by-play level, so we won't be using the "Beyond the Box Score" moniker.  Instead, we'll just hang out beside the box score for a bit.

(Here's the official box score.)

Mizzou 92, Oral Roberts 83

Mizzou ORU
Points Per Minute
2.30 2.08
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.29 1.17
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.42 1.54
2-PT FG% 55.8% 42.5%
3-PT FG% 46.2% 57.1%
FT% 66.7% 78.1%
Mizzou ORU
Assists 18 10
Steals 10 6
Turnovers 10 12
(Assists + Steals) / TO 2.80 1.33
Mizzou ORU
Expected Offensive Rebounds* 12 12
Offensive Rebounds 13 11
Eq. Rebound Margin +1 -1

* This is an idea discussed last week.  Depending on the number of 2-pointers, 3-pointers, and FTs shot, you can generate a number of expected offensive rebounds and compare that to the actual number.

  • Mizzou won this game on offense.  They forced only 12 turnovers, but 1.29 points per possession is very high.  They shot well and passed well, and though Oral Roberts is not a Big 12 caliber team, they're at least a solid mid-major, and 1.29 PPP is high against even that level of team.  And as we'll see in the player analysis, I'm giving DeMarre Carroll and Miguel Paul a lot of credit for that offensive efficiency.
  • ORU's Robert Jarvis scored 34 points on just 18 shots, accounting for a large % of ORU's offensive success.  Jarvis aside, the Golden Eagles averaged just 1.36 points per shot (39% FG)...which is still pretty high, but better.
  • Thanks to Leo Lyons' 8-for-10 performance from the FT line, Mizzou actually approached 70% as a team.  Of course, 70% still isn't very good.  Mizzou's guards went 6-for-9 from the line...67% isn't great, but it's also a small sample size, so we'll allow it for now.

Player analysis after the jump.

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Mizzou Links, 12-1-08

A somewhat abbreviated Links today, as I'm off work today and sleeping in...and we're keeping this one positive, so...no KU links, and no soon-to-be-OU-destruction links...

Christensen-to-Wyoming Links!

  • First things first, Dave Matter reported late last night that Christensen will stick around for the Big 12 Championship and bowl game.
  • The Trib: Christensen headed to Wyoming
    Wyoming has been the launching pad for several former head coaches who went on to have successful careers elsewhere, including Bob Devaney, Pat Dye, Dennis Erickson and Joe Tiller. Joe Glenn had been the Cowboys coach since 2003 but was fired last Sunday after compiling a 30-41 record in six seasons at the Mountain West Conference program. Wyoming had one winning season under Glenn, a 7-5 finish in 2004. Wyoming has been part of the Mountain West since 1999 and prior to that played in Western Athletic Conference since 1962.
  • Laramie Boomerang: Mizzou Asst. Head Coach Wyoming Bound
    Christensen’s offense produced no fewer than three major national awards candidates. Then junior quarterback Chase Daniel was a Heisman Trophy finalist (finishing fourth in final Heisman voting), while senior tight end Martin Rucker and freshman wide receiver Jeremy Maclin were both consensus First Team All-Americans, marking the first time in MU history it has had two consensus first teamers in a single year.
  • Post-Dispatch: Christensen to Wyoming; Eberflus interviews at Toledo
    It's unclear whether any MU assistants will leave with Christensen, nor or it evident who will ascend to his job. Insiders believe the most obvious candidates internally would be quarterbacks coach David Yost, who has been with Pinkel since 1996, and receivers coach Andy Hill, the former Tiger receiver who came aboard the coaching staff with Larry Smith and now is in his 13th season at MU.
  • And while we're at it...Toledo Blade: UT likely to interview Eberflus
    Eberflus, 38, is a Whitmer High School graduate. UT athletic director Mike O'Brien hopes to make a hire by early December. Other possible candidates are thought to be Arizona defensive coordinator Mark Stoops and former Iowa State coach Dan McCarney.

Oral Roberts Links!

  • The Missourian: Lyons helps Tigers hold off Oral Roberts
  • The Trib: Lyons, Carroll too much for Oral Roberts
  • KC Star: Lyons & Carroll star in Mizzou win

Also, a quick programming note: I normally post a weekly Big 12 BTBS wrap-up on Mondays and MU game wrap-up on Tuesday...it's all getting bumped back a day.  Expect an Oral Roberts box score wrap-up later today, though.  I know you don't want to miss that!

Poll
Dave Christensen will remain Mizzou's offensive coordinator for the next month or so. Right move?

  98 votes | Results

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Quick thoughts on MU-KU...

I'm sure Ross will post some thoughts at some point as well, but in the meantime...

* This just wasn't the season we thought it would be.  Plain and simple.  One thing I hate doing is determining blame, so I'll leave that to others.  As a fan, all I can say is, the bounces didn't go our way in big moments this year, and while Mizzou fans should almost never be disappointed with 9-3, this was the one year where 9-3 felt like a bit of a failure.

* Of course, next week we get a chance to make everybody forget this moment by doing something amazing.  It probably won't happen, but that is a good reminder of something else: we won our second straight North title this year.  Bears mentioning.

* I don't know why our blitz hasn't worked this year, but...our blitz hasn't worked this year.  Our defensive line generates a decent pass rush, but I can't think of many times where a big blitz produced a big play.  Today was obviously no different.  Strategically, I think blitzing on 4th-and-7 was the correct aggressive play.  But it's hard to completely agree with the call since the blitz has been so ineffective.  I'd like to think our blitz gets better next year with missiles like Ebner and Gachkar getting more familiar with the defense and more involved, but...we'll see.

* I've already seen other sites saying how Mizzou "choked" this game away.  I just don't see it.  We sucked in the first half, held it together, came back in the second half, and it became a "who gets the ball last?" situation.  Todd Reesing outdueled Chase Daniel, KU played its best game of the year and won a big rivalry game at the last second...I guess I just reserve the word "choke" for more extreme situations than this.

* I can't give Todd Reesing enough credit for this effort.  He was pretty damn mediocre the last couple of times I saw him play, but he was on tonight.  What makes it more impressive is, we hit him...a lot.

* Chase Coffman = balls.  A couple of times, instead of trying to slow down once he started running, he just fell down.  He was clearly in pain...about half-speed...and he caught six balls and 2 TDs.  I'm really gonna miss the Flying Nunchuk.  Clearly he's not going to be 100% next week (for the second straight Big 12 title game), but I just hope he's healed for the bowl game...just so I get one last chance to watch him fly around.

* I wrote a lot about 2009 earlier this week, and I'm at least partially optimistic about Mizzou's chances thanks to the OL and Derrick Washington...but obviously Reesing/Briscoe/Meier (and Stuckey) will have something to say about that.

* Does this mean we can retire the gold jerseys?

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Mizzou-Kansas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

You didn't think I forgot about the BTBS preview, did you?

KU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.

68.8% % Close 52.5%
49.7% 50.3% Field Position % 55.1% 44.9%
71.3% 65.9% Leverage % 76.8% 68.5%
Total
795 780 Plays 762 826
313.43 292.05 EqPts 392.41 265.57
47.6% 41.8% Success Rate 56.8% 42.1%
0.39 0.37 PPP 0.51 0.32
0.870 0.792 S&P 1.083 0.743
Close Games
528 555 Plays 453. 381
218.59 212.79 EqPts 228.79 119.84
47.9% 43.1% Success Rate 57.6% 42.8%
0.41 0.38 PPP 0.51 0.31
0.893 0.814 S&P 1.081 0.742
Rushing
115.92 105.62 EqPts 145.56 91.46
49.4% 39.4% Success Rate 52.0% 40.6%
0.33 0.33 PPP 0.46 0.25
0.820 0.728 S&P 0.977 0.659
3.35 2.71 Line Yds/carry 3.13 2.73
Passing
197.51 186.44 EqPts 246.84 174.12
46.0% 43.4% Success Rate 60.3% 43.3%
0.45 0.40 PPP 0.56 0.38
0.910 0.837 S&P 1.160 0.809
5.9% 4.3% Sack Rate 2.2% 5.4%
Non-Passing Downs
51.7% 46.5% Success Rate 61.5% 47.1%
0.38 0.37 PPP 0.55 0.32
0.895 0.831 S&P 1.162 0.794
5.3% 3.9% Sack Rate 1.6% 4.1%
53.8% 50.4% Run Rate 47.9% 52.8%
Passing Downs
37.4% 33.0% Success Rate 41.7% 31.6%
0.43 0.39 PPP 0.41 0.32
0.807 0.720 S&P 0.830 0.636
6.8% 4.8% Sack Rate 3.6% 7.1%
23.4% 23.5% Run Rate 23.5% 26.7%
Turnovers
19 21 Total 17 19
43.19 61.28 Points Lost 48.11 45.63
46.04 50.30 Points Given 34.23 71.73
89.23 111.58 Total T/O Pts 82.34 117.36
+22.35 -22.35 T/O Pts Margin/Gm +35.02 -35.02

Thoughts after the jump...

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