Well, that sucked. Everyone needs to read Peter's beautiful tome on how to handle ourselves in this incredibly unfortunate (and in our minds unjust) situation. But the chances of Texas going to the BCS National Championship game are not gone. Take a look at the BCS standings:

Follow me after the jump for a little bit of thought on Texas' remaining opportunities.

Continue reading this post »

Bama is predictably destroying a terrible Auburn team, and Florida is likewise beating up on the Seminoles.  But alas, there is hope!  Your adopted fightin' Baylor Bear football team is leading Texas Tech 28-21 heading into the 4th Quarter.  If the Bears win, whatever happens in Stillwater tonight means absolutely nothing to Texas, as the Horns will be headed to Kansas City regardless.  And a win in Kansas City unequivocally sends Texas to Miami.  So the moral of the story is: SIC 'EM BEARS!!!

In the grand tradition of such terrible writers as Larry King and the terrible newspaper for which he wrote, USA Today, I'm proud to present BZ's News and Views -- random, disjointed thoughts from around the college football world and beyond.

• I've been a little preoccupied with BCS stats and trying not to get secretly laid off at my law firm, which has been a little bit of an issue for some at my firm the last week or so (but success!  so far!), so the frequency of the ol' News and Views has waned quite a bit.  But I thought I'd give all of you a nice hearty Thanksgiving helping of non sequtirs.  Now with even less football talk!
• How about Schlabach, huh?  Friend of the blog.
• I love everything about the Charlie Weis Era at Notre Dame except for the fact that Jimmy Clausen is rounding into a decent QB.  Oh, and the pants situation.  Biggest. Pleats. Ever.
• I've seen the Tulane and Notre Dame basketball games and I have to say that this team reminds me of a more talented but less cohesive 2003-04 Texas squad (the year after TJ left).
  
• My firm's football team just had a 10-0 regular season in the NYC Lawyer's League, outscoring our opponents 258-68.  Add this to my two law school championships and it's plain to see that BZ just wins football games.

Continue reading this post »

Enough with the niceties.  Down to the nitty-gritty of the BCS numbers.  Note that the 1 member of the Harrris Poll that forgot to vote last week is back so the "Last Week's Points" amount is irrelevant for that poll.

Analysis?  You want analysis?  Follow me after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

OU has just delivered a beatdown of Texas Tech that is going to be tempting to use as reason for moving OU ahead of Texas on your ballots.  This is a reasonable instant reaction.  OU played well.  Of course, Tech played terribly, and not all of that can be credited to OU.  But I beseech every one of you human voters to stop, read this, and contemplate what you're doing before you do it.  Because there is most definitely an excellent and convincing case to be made for Texas being ranked above OU and Texas Tech.

As you know, Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma played a round-robin as they do every year and all three came out 1-1.  Tech played 1 game on the road and 1 at home.  OU played 1 at home and 1 on a neutral field.  Texas played 1 on a neutral field and 1 on the road.  Which one of these is harder than the other 2?  Had Texas played Tech in Austin, would the Longhorns have won?  I don't know because Texas didn't play Tech at home, just as they didn't play OU at home.  That's got to be worth something.  Advantage Texas.

So let's look at the losses.  Tech lost in epic, blowout fashion tonight.  OU lost by 10 points on a neutral field.  Texas lost on a touchdown pass with 1 second left in the game (1 play after dropping a sure-thing interception) on the road.  Advantage Texas.

Texas played the most epic 4-game stretch off teams in probably 20 years, in which they beat OU, Missouri and Oklahoma State, all top-11 teams at the time.  And in the 4th game of that brutal stretch, on the road in a hostile environment at night, they didn't fold like Tech did tonight; they battled on their last, weary legs and lost on a last-second touchdown pass.  Neither OU nor Tech had to go through even a 3-game stretch the likes of which Texas blew through on their way to Lubbock.  Advantage: Texas.

Let's look at the wins.  OU has not yet played Oklahoma State, which both Texas and Tech have beaten at home.  Texas beat Kansas by 28 points in Lawrence (35-7), Tech beat Kansas by 42 in Lawrence, and OU beat Kansas by 14 at home (where all of OU's big games have been this year....well, except the one they lost...to TEXAS), giving up 31 points in the process.  Advantage Texas over OU.

OU did beat TCU and Cincinnati, two decent teams.  Have to give them that.  Of course, they also played two of the worst teams in football.  I would have said "two of the worst teams in D-1 football" except Chattanooga is actually one of the worst teams in Division 2 football, with a pathetic 1-11 record.  Oh and the other team?  Washington, which lost today to Washington State and is now 0-11.  Tech played TWO division 2 teams.  Texas played none, and actually played an SEC team.  There's something to be said for not being able to take several weeks off to stay fresh for your later games by playing a D-2 team or the equivalent of one.  Texas has not played one of those teams and has not had a week to take off.  Oh, and beyond that, Texas beat the ever living crap out of Missouri, a top-15 team than neither Tech nor OU have beaten this year.  Advantage Texas

Oh, and one more thing.  If you're like most voters and you've moved Tech out of the equation after their terrible performance tonight, and you're deciding between Texas and OU, agonizing over who should be ranked ahead of who, let me remind you of one thing.  On a beautiful October Day in Dallas--not Austin, not Norman, Dallas--Texas beat Oklahoma by 10 points.  If you were ever thinking to yourself, "These two are close, I wish I had a some neutral, objective way of determining which of these teams was better,"  well, I think this might be it. 

Think about this: if Texas and OU end up in a 2-way tie for the Big 12 South, Texas wins.  But then, if they end up in a 3-way tie with Texas Tech, OU might win over Texas, not by virtue of doing anything different than what they already have, but simply by virtue of Tech having 1 loss in conference instead of 2.  What Tech does or doesn't do should have nothing to with whether Texas or OU wins the Big 12 South.  And only the BCS can make sure that it doesn't by ranking Texas ahead of OU.  And that means you, human voters.

It's the Battle Cry of the University: Remember the Cotton Bowl!  45-35 on a neutral field.  Advantage Texas.

Well that was ridiculous.  42-7 OU was not exactly what we were hoping for when some of us decided to root for OU to win this game.  So the priorities change.  I say we give up on the Big 12 championship game and root for OU to drop 80 on Tech.

A 1-loss Tech team that beat Texas is a threat to be ranked ahead of Texas in the BCS if it ends up in the Big 12 Championship game.  But I think that a huge blowout loss by Tech eliminates them the BCS conversation, even if OU loses to OSU and Tech makes it to Kansas City and wins.  That means that OU losing to either OSU or Missouri might get Texas in the National Championship game.

Who's with me?!?!

If you missed last week's BCS Numbers Game, take a quick read here of the section "An Explanatory Prelude That Seems Simple But is Oh So Important."  It will give you a background for the numbers we're looking at here.  So let's step right up and take a look at the two human polls (note: some idiot didn't submit his ballot in the Harris Poll this week so the expected points this week are based on 113 voters instead of 114):

Analysis?  You want analysis?  Follow me after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

So we've seen the new BCS poll, Peter's taken us through the various scenarios in which Texas can make a BCS game and/or the national championship game, and HornBrain has fired his perpetually delayed weekly salvo of hate in the war against Richard Billingsley's awful computer ranking system.  But what I want to focus on here is the nitty gritty of the numbers  that constitute the BCS rankings to see what we're looking at going forward and how likely things are to change given the various scenarios.  That's right, it's the 84th post in the last 2 days on the BCS!  Now with even more numbers!

Some might call this a useless exercise in "how can Texas back into the Big 12 and national championship games" and that's true in a sense.  But what's also true is that just because a team has 1 loss doesn't mean it's backing into anything.  A 2-loss team won the national championship last year.  This is the reality we're living with.  You're not out of anything until you're mathematically eliminated.  And Texas' math is very much alive for both the Big 12 and National Championship games.

So let's take a look at the numbers, shall we?

Continue reading this post »