Texas is most certainly getting hurt by the computers right now, but a charge up the digital standings may be on the way if the Horns win out their remaining games. Let's look at Jeff Sagarin's ratings as an example of how Texas can move up.
Sagarin's current Top 15:
- Michigan
- Ohio State
- Rutgers
- Notre Dame
- California
- USC
- Auburn
- Florida
- Arkansas
- Wisconsin
- Louisville
- Boise State
-
Texas
- LSU
- Tennessee
1) Texas will move past Louisville as it wins out. The 'Horns remaining schedule is better.
2) Texas will move past Florida or Arkansas. One team will add a second loss.
3) Texas will probably move past Boise State, even if the Broncos win out. (Depends on Oklahoma's finish.)
4) Texas will move past Wisconsin - the Badgers close their season at Iowa and against Buffalo. The latter will hurt them significantly.
5, 6) Texas will move past two of the following three: Cal, USC, Notre Dame. Two of the three must finish with two losses, which will bump them behind Texas.
7) If Rutgers loses to West Virginia, it's another point for the Horns.
8) If Michigan loses to Ohio State, there's a chance they'll drop below Texas. The teams are much close in Sagarin's ratings than the current gap would suggest.
9) Believe it or not, Texas may just slip past Auburn, as well, depending on what happens with Arkansas.
Texas, then, has a fair shot at ending up #4 or better in the computer ratings when it's all said and done. In the above scenario, Texas would be best served by USC beating Cal and Notre Dame beating USC. That would put Ohio State, Notre Dame, and the Florida-Arkansas winner above the Horns in the computers. If Texas had a strong grip on the #2 spot in the human polls, they'd have a very reasonable chance of getting the rematch with the Buckeyes.
The best scenario of all, though, would be for Arkansas to beat Tennessee and Mississippi State, drop the season finale to LSU, then beat Florida in the SEC title game. That, in conjunction with the above USC-Cal-ND scenario, would pretty much assure Texas a spot in the title game.
It ain't over yet.
--PB--