We?ve previewed the two Big Games from this weekend, but there's a regional matchup that's of interest to many Texas football fans: Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Poor Baylor is coming off of back-to-back weeks facing these two teams, getting crushed each time. Now the two high powered, up and coming offenses square off in Lubbock, and there's a lot on the line. Check out the Big 12 standings heading into this game:
| Team | Conf. W-L | Overall |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | 6-1 | 9-2 |
| Oklahoma | 5-1 | 8-2 |
| Texas A&M | 4-3 | 8-3 |
| Oklahoma St | 3-3 | 6-4 |
| Texas Tech | 3-4 | 6-5 |
| Baylor | 3-4 | 4-7 |
If Tech drops this one, they're suddenly 6-6 with five conference losses. The Big 12 has eight bowl tie-ins, but that would firmly place Texas Tech in that eighth slot. I'm not going to bother looking it up, but it won't be a fun bowl, or a fun opponent. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, faces the same fate if they lose Saturday, barring an upset of the Sooners in the season finale. The bottom line is: both teams would really like this win.
But this game is interesting for another reason: the future. Each team fields an exciting, capable sophomore quarterback who's had some big time highs and big time lows this season. Both should improve as juniors, and I think it's fair to say that the Big 12 will be markedly improved next season, as young quarterbacks like Bobby Reid, Graham Harrell, Josh Freeman, Colt McCoy, Chase Daniel, Stephen McGee, and Kenny Meier take steps forward. In fact, there may not be a deeper group of talented young throwers with so much experience in any conference in the country. Just something to keep in mind.
Below is the statistical overview of each team; game analysis to follow:
Oklahoma State margin of victory: +14.9 points
Texas Tech margin of victory: +8.7 points
Oklahoma State's opponents have a combined record of: 45-41
Texas Tech's opponets have a combined record of: 46-49
As another rough guide, Jeff Sagarin lists Oklahoma State's strength of schedule as 72nd in the country and Texas Tech's as 65th.
How are these two teams performing statistically? Below are tables of each team's season totals, with national rank in parentheses.
Oklahoma State By The Numbers: Defense
The next, final, step, is to put those numbers into context. The following chart shows the national rank in total offense and total defense for each of Oklahoma State and Texas Tech's 2006 opponents.
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 215.7 (7) | 5.5 (4) | 21 (14) | 200.4 (58) | 8.9 (7) | 24 (14) | 158.6 (9) | 416.1 (13) | 37.9 (5) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
| 77.0 (112) | 4.76 (20) | 8 (108) | 364.1 (3) | 7.2 (50) | 35 (2) | 144.7 (25) | 441.1 (8) | 31.6 (19) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | Total Defense | Scoring Defense | |
| 148.0 (81) | 3.95 (63) | 11 (54) | 222.8 (89) | 7.8 (98) | 16 (85) | 370.8 (90) | 24.5 (78) | |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | Total Defense | Scoring Defense | |
| 140.7 (67) | 3.74 (51) | 13 (68) | 176.6 (30) | 6.5 (39) | 15 (72) | 317.5 (49) | 23.7 (72) | |
| Total Offense Rank | Oklahoma State Opponent | Total Defense Rank | -- | Total Offense Rank | Texas Tech Opponent | Total Defense Rank | ||
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Arkansas St. |
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-- |
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SMU |
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Florida Atlantic |
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-- |
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UTEP |
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@Houston |
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-- |
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@TCU |
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@Kansas State |
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-- |
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@Texas A&M |
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@Kansas |
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-- |
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Missouri |
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@Texas A&M |
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-- |
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@Colorado |
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Nebraska |
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-- |
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@Iowa State |
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@Texas |
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-- |
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Texas |
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Baylor |
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-- |
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Baylor |
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-- |
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-- |
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@Oklahoma |
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Average |
|
-- |
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Average |
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Charts? Charts.
To the mats with the numbers:
*Not a lot of moderation in this group: extremes aplenty. Most alarming, for Oklahoma State, is that porous pass defense. This looks like a great matchup for Graham Harrell, especially in Lubbock: the Cowboys are giving up an astounding 70 more points in passer rating to opposing quarterbacks on the road than in Stillwater. Yikes.
*Would you believe that it's Oklahoma State with the better offense if I hadn't just shown you the numbers? The Cowboys are superior to Tech in total rushing, yards per carry, rushing touchdowns, passing yards per attempt, and scoring offense. Bad news for the Big 12: both quarterback Bobby Reid and tailback Dantrell Savage return next season. Look out.
*On the flipside, Texas Tech's defense has been respectable this year. Not good, certainly, but respectable. In particular, the pass defense is doing a nice job, hovering in the Top 40 in most categories. The run defense hasn't been quite as good, and that's got to be Mike Leach's big concern for Saturday. If Savage and the other OSU tailbacks are running wild, Tech's in for another shootout.
*The over/under on this game currently sits at 69.5 points, a number I won't touch with real money. Too hard to predict how this kind of game will go, though most of us are expecting and hoping for some serious fireworks. A 70-66 final would make me laugh.
*Looking at the numbers, Mike Leach has to get the running game involved more for next season. I know he loves his passing offense, and he's clearly enamored of Graham Harrell, but 77 yards per game and only 8 total touchdowns just isn't enough. What's really strange is that sophomore Shannon Woods appears ready to break out, but Leach won't seem to let him. After a 10 carry, 125 yard outburst against Baylor, Leach limited Woods to just 8 carries against Oklahoma. (Woods picked up 40 yards, at 5 per rush.) If there's one mistake Leach has made this season, I'm certain this is it.
*Last, but not least: this game is not on television. Unbelievable.
[Previous "Under The Hood" Articles: Wisconsin / Rutgers / Kansas State / Michigan-Ohio State / Cal-USC]
--PB--