We've got two huge matchups to preview this week - this one and the Notre Dame-USC showdown. We start in the SEC, where Arkansas tries to stay in the hunt in the national title game against a deeply talented, but oft-underperforming LSU Tiger team. Below is the statistical overview of each team; analysis to follow.
LSU margin of victory: +23.9 points
Arkansas margin of victory: +16.9 points
LSU's opponents have a combined record of: 48-38
Arkansas' opponets have a combined record of: 40-43
As another rough guide, Jeff Sagarin lists LSU's strength of schedule as 37th toughest in the country and Arkansas' as 73rd.
How are these two teams performing statistically? Below are tables of each team's season totals, with national rank in parentheses.
LSU By The Numbers: Defense
The next, final, step, is to put those numbers into context. The following chart shows the national rank in total offense and total defense for each of LSU and Arkansas' 2006 opponents. Southeast Missouri State has been excluded from Arkansas' chart, though we should note that Arkansas' numbers may be somewhat inflated from having played such a bad team.
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 163.5 (35) | 4.76 (19) | 21 (t21) | 247.6 (19) | 8.8 (7) | 26 (13) | 163.2 (7) | 411.1 (15) | 33.3 (11) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
| 230.6 (6) | 5.89 (2) | 21 (t21) | 156 (102) | 7.7 (33) | 19 (37) | 136.1 (36) | 386.6 (28) | 30.5 (21) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | Opp. QB Rating | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
| 74.6 (6) | 2.49 (5) | 4 (1) | 153.1 (8) | 5.4 (3) | 8 (9) | 95.1 (3) | 227.1 (1) | 11.3 (3) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | Opp. QB Rating | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
| 117.2 (36) | 3.51 (38) | 7 (18) | 180.1 (33) | 5.7 (10) | 14 (55) | 103.6 (14) | 297.3 (28) | 15.5 (17) |
| Total Offense Rank | LSU Opponent | Total Defense Rank | -- | Total Offense Rank | Arkansas Opponent | Total Defense Rank | ||
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Louisiana Lafayette |
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USC |
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Arizona |
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-- |
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Utah State |
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@Auburn |
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-- |
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@Vanderbilt |
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Tulane |
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-- |
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Alabama |
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Mississippi State |
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-- |
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@Auburn |
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@Florida |
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-- |
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Mississippi |
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Kentucky |
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-- |
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@Louisiana-Monroe |
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Fresno State |
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-- |
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@South Carolina |
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@Tennessee |
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-- |
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Tennessee |
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Alabama |
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-- |
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@Mississippi State |
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Mississippi |
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-- |
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-- |
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-- |
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Charts? Charts.
To the mats with the numbers:
*When you lay it all out in front of you, LSU sure looks a lot better than their results to date. Part of the problem is that they've yet to put together a complete game against a quality opponent. Three points against Auburn. Ten against Florida. They did get by Tennessee in Knoxville, but were fortunate to do so. The composite perception is a very, very good team lurking beneath satisfactory results. If there's a week for them to break out against an elite opponent, this is it.
*The only thing LSU doesn't do exceptionally well is run the ball, but they'll need to in order to keep Arkansas honest on Saturday. The only team to beat the Razorbacks to date - USC in the season opener - had a terrific run-pass balance. Jamarcus Russell can have success against this secondary, but he'll need support from the run game if it's going to happen.
*For Arkansas, where do you attack LSU? There simply isn't any weakness in the defense for you to obviously exploit. LSU's in the top six nationally in total rush yards per game, yards per attempt, and rushing touchdowns. They're top ten in pass yards per game, yards per pass attempt, passing touchdowns allowed, and opponent quarterback rating. Seriously: where do you attack? Looking back to the only quality opponent to lay points on LSU (that would be Florida), the only real hope is to pound away at the rush game and hit some scoring plays on some excellent play action. There's simply not much else there.
*The more I look at Arkansas' schedule, the more I remember why they are fifth on my ballot. Despite the gaudy record, they only possess two high-quality wins - at Auburn and Tennessee (in Fayetteville). The rest isn't much to get excited about. Add in the fact that I'm more down on Auburn than almost anyone, and there's really not a lot on Arkansas' resume to get giddy about. In short: I think LSU's got the better team.
*That leaves just one question: who wins? I love that Arkansas is at home, and I love that they have the superior running game. Outside that, all that indicators lean to LSU. That does not include the coach, of course, but I'll remind the audience of one thing: Every year Les Miles has one game in him where he completely gets the better of a quality opponent. He's not done that yet this season, but I think this is that game for Les Miles and LSU this year. LSU takes down Arkansas on the road, 31-27.
[Previous "Under The Hood" Articles: Wisconsin / Rutgers / Kansas State / Michigan-Ohio State / USC-Cal / Texas Tech-Oklahoma State / Texas-Texas A&M]
--PB--