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On Sunday, in his weekly BCS busting post, SMQ lays out each hypothetical record for the BCS contenders and ranks them in order of what chance they have of making it to Glendale:

any result other than that in parentheses should invalidate an opportunity:
  1. Ohio State/Michigan Winner (12-0, Big Ten Champion)
  2. Louisville (12-0, Big East Champion)
  3. Florida (12-1, SEC Champion)
  4. Auburn (12-1, SEC Champion)
  5. Southern Cal (11-1, PAC Ten Champion)
  6. Texas (12-1, Big XII Champion)
  7. Auburn (11-1; No SEC Championship Game)
  8. Ohio State/Michigan Loser (11-1, 2nd Place, Big Ten)
  9. Arkansas (12-1, SEC Champion)
  10. California (11-1, PAC Ten Champion)
  11. Notre Dame (11-1)
  12. Rutgers (12-0, Big East Champion)

How does this line up with your thinking?  Can Texas get past a 1-loss USC or SEC champion?  Where should we fit?