Cause for celebration indeed: bowl season is officially here! Fireworks and fist pumpings abound: EDSBS, SMQ, RBR! Who are we to miss out on the fun?
We'll contribute to the bowl bonanza in our own way: with a laborious, uber-serious, hyper-analysis of each bowl game. Woo fun!
Below is the statistical overview of each team; analysis to follow.
TCU has compiled a 10-2 record against some pretty bad competition (combined record of 48-71), with a margin of victory of +15.4 points. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, went 7-5 against equally uninspiring opponents (combined 52-77 record) - margin of victory a more modest +7.2 points per game. As another rough guide, Jeff Sagarin lists TCU's strength of schedule as 89th toughest in the country and Northern Illinois' as 113th.
How are these two teams performing statistically? Below are tables of each team's season totals, with national rank in parentheses.
TCU By The Numbers: Defense
The next, final, step, is to put those numbers into context. The following chart shows the national rank in total offense and total defense for each of TCU and Northern Illinois' 2006 opponents. Indiana State (NIU) and UC Davis (TCU) are excluded.
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 194.3 (9) | 4.56 (26) | 20 (33) | 210.2 (49) | 7.8 (30) | 14 (69) | 137.2 (37) | 404.5 (17) | 28.6 (34) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
| 180.2 (17) | 5.22 (7) | 24 (15) | 208.3 (50) | 6.8 (67) | 16 (59) | 121.5 (67) | 388.5 (24) | 27 (43) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | Opp. QB Rating | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
| 67.6 (4) | 2.4 (4) | 8 (13) | 181.9 (35) | 5.9 (17) | 9 (9) | 104.7 (12) | 249.5 (4) | 12.8 (5) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | Opp. QB Rating | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
| 115.6 (34) | 3.5 (36) | 10 (26) | 241.5 (104) | 7.6 (90) | 21 (94) | 142.6 (101) | 357.1 (80) | 19.8 (42) |
| Total Offense Rank | TCU Opponent | Total Defense Rank | -- | Total Offense Rank | Northern Illinois Opponent | Total Defense Rank | ||
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@Baylor |
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@Ohio State |
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Texas Tech |
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-- |
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Ohio |
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BYU |
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-- |
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Buffalo |
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@Utah |
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-- |
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@Ball State |
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@Army |
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-- |
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@Miami (OH) |
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Wyoming |
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-- |
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@Western Michigan |
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@UNLV |
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-- |
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Temple |
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@New Mexico St |
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-- |
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@Iowa |
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San Diego St |
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-- |
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Toledo |
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@Colorado St |
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-- |
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Central Michigan |
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Air Force |
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-- |
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@Eastern Michigan |
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-- |
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Charts? Charts.
To the mats with the numbers:
*Okay, first things first: these teams have played some truly awful competition. Temple, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Army, New Mexico State, San Diego State, UC Davis, and Indiana State all have to be filed in the "horrific" category.
*TCU, at least on paper, looks like a two touchdown favorite, no? They are, in fact, favored by 13, and looking at the numbers, you can see why. The Horned Frogs have some elite defensive numbers and a passable offense. Northern Illinois, reasonably sound against the run, has been embarrassingly bad in pass defense. Keep in mind, again, though, that these teams have been playing some true cupcakes. That's cause for more concern with Northern Illinois, though. They're 7-5, with middle of the road numbers, against the 6th easiest schedule in the country.
*TCU looks pretty well set up to deal with Northern Illinois' super speedster Garrett Wolfe. Assuming they can keep him from erupting, putting up enough points to win shouldn't be a problem. All told, that line looks a little low to me. I've already placed my wager: I'll take TCU to win this one comfortably, 30-14.
--PB--