Our bowl bonanza breakdown blitz, marked by hyper-analysis and excessive alliteration, continues with tonight?s Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl, played between BYU and Oregon.
Below is the statistical overview of each team; analysis to follow.
BYU margin of victory: +21.4 points
Oregon margin of victory: +5.7 points
BYU's opponents have a combined record of: 57-68
Oregon's opponets have a combined record of: 67-56
As another rough guide, Jeff Sagarin lists BYU's strength of schedule as 82nd toughest in the country and Oregon's as 7th.
How are these two teams performing statistically? Below are tables of each team's season totals, with national rank in parentheses.
BYU By The Numbers: Defense
The next, final, step, is to put those numbers into context. The following chart shows the national rank in total offense and total defense for each of BYU and Oregon's 2006 opponents. Portland State, a 1AA team, has been excluded from Oregon's chart.
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 139.3 (54) | 4.1 (51) | 24 (18) | 319.3 (4) | 9.5 (3) | 31 (5) | 171.1 (2) | 458.6 (5) | 36.7 (6) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
| 189.6 (11) | 5.2 (10) | 26 (10) | 247.3 (21) | 6.6 (73) | 17 (50) | 120.7 (69) | 436.8 (8) | 31.3 (17) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | Opp. QB Rating | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
| 115.8 (35) | 3.67 (45) | 10 (27) | 208.3 (73) | 6.1 (24) | 11 (24) | 107.9 (20) | 324.1 (57) | 15.3 (16) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | Opp. QB Rating | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
| 149.7 (82) | 4.26 (87) | 18 (85) | 153.6 (8) | 5.9 (14) | 15 (46) | 110.9 (26) | 303.3 (29) | 25.6 (84) |
| Total Offense Rank | BYU Opponent | Total Defense Rank | -- | Total Offense Rank | Oregon Opponent | Total Defense Rank | ||
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@Arizona |
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-- |
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Stanford |
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Tulsa |
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-- |
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@Fresno State |
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@Boston College |
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-- |
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Oklahoma |
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Utah State |
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-- |
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@Arizona State |
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@TCU |
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-- |
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@California |
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San Diego St |
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-- |
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UCLA |
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UNLV |
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-- |
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@Washington State |
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@Air Force |
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-- |
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Washington |
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@Colorado State |
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-- |
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@USC |
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Wyoming |
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-- |
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Arizona |
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New Mexico |
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-- |
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@Oregon State |
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@Utah |
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-- |
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-- |
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-- |
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Charts? Charts.
To the mats with the numbers:
*This is a pretty interesting matchup, really. For BYU, they've won nine in a row, but none over a team with an offense as strong as Oregon's. Their best win in that stretch, at TCU, is an impressive one, but the rest of the wins aren't much to brag about. Don't forget, too, that the Cougars were fortunate to escape Utah with a win.
*Teams have had a lot of success running the football on the Ducks, but Oregon's done a solid job defending the pass. BYU, of course, excels through the air, thanks to John Beck's accurate arm. The Cougars have struggled some this season when teams have limited their rushing abilities; if they aren't able to assemble any balance on offense, their advantage in the air will be lessened significantly.
*The other thing you have to worry about for BYU is their rush defense, which has been average this season. I look for Oregon to come out pounding the ball on the ground in this one, and if BYU isn't able to force the Ducks to the air, it might be a long evening.
*All told, the overall advantage - at least in my view - seems to be with Oregon. They finished the year poorly, but I like their overall talent better and the matchups with BYU look favorable. It's been a nice year for BYU, but Oregon's going to win tonight, 38-27.
--PB--