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Pomeroy's Numbers Favor Horns

Those of you that are pessimistic about the Horns' chances of getting out of the Atlanta region, may want to take a close look at Ken Pomeroy's numbers (Hat Tip: Phog). Texas, not Duke, is the regional favorite, using his efficiency numbers. Says Pomeroy, of the Atlanta region:

Atlanta presents the most obvious regional final in the bracket, with a Duke/Texas rematch seemingly inevitable. (Although, LSU may have a say in that.) Those of you that feel Duke should win based on its earlier 31-point drubbing of the Longhorns are using one game as evidence at the exclusion of the other 25-30 which say that this game would be at least a tossup. Interesting that the 12-seed comes in as the fifth-likeliest team to get to Indy. I think that speaks more to the weakness of seeds 5+ in the bracket.

Many bemoaned getting placed in Duke's region when the brackets were announced; some because they wanted to avoid playing the Devils, others because Duke's overall #1 seed meant the selection committee seemed to place Texas as the lowest ranked #2 seed. While the latter complaint may be justified, I'm certainly happier in our own bracket than sitting opposite, say, Connecticut.

We've all watched the Horns enough this year to know that on any given night, the offense can disappear, the turnovers can mount, and the season can come sweeping to an ugly end. I think most of us also know that, if the Horns play an A- or better game, they're going to beat everyone in their half of the bracket, and will be a very tough out for Duke.

Texas is no lock to make the Final Four, but there are much tougher roads there for other teams across the country. All in all, it's a good draw.

Update [2006-3-14 13:16:29 by HornsFan]: It's also worth noting that Texas is, by Ken's numbers, the -favorite- to win the entire tournament, with a 14.05% chance of taking down the nets. That's partly because of our draw. With UConn and Villanova on the other side of the bracket, among some other top contenders, Texas' biggest obstacle to the championship game is Duke... and themselves.