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BCS Breakdown: 2007 Final Poll

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Horn Brain checks in with his weekly look at the BCS.

I only wish the BCS was delivered with a press conference, where some poor shlub had to go out and face the world, read off the top 10 or 15 teams, and then answer questions based on info from the polls and from the computer operators.  In my mind, it goes something like this:

BCS Joe:  Ahem.  The BCS is proud to announce that the participants in the BCS National Championship game this year are the Ohio State University Buckeyes, and the Louisiana State University Tigers...

The Assembled Press:

On to the madness... Well... I guess it doesn't actually count as madness after those creepy Chinese girls... soooo... um...

On to the voluntary wing of the asylum!

This week is just awesome.  Awesome, I tell you!  The poll is on its head this week.  Total chaos.  Anarchy, Armageddon, absolute smoke-billowing-from-the-wreckage cataclysm.  The best part?  This is the only week that counts!  This is why I keep track of this stuff.  Because when it all falls down into a big heap, no one else has these graphs:

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Real madness, here, people.

In the second graph, the blue line shows actual standard deviation, the pink curve is the expected value.  The expected value is the best fit line to the average over three full years now.  That's a pretty solid number.  This graph does not look anything like it.  That means chaos.  tOSU is in the championship, and PB gets his riot.  In poll-ular form.

The outliers are tOSU, VT, Oklahoma, USC, WU, Texas, USF, Boise, and UConn.  Bet against the spread, people.  They will disappoint.  Exception:  Va Tech, whose early season hiccup (some might call it a violent seizure) against LSU has left them rightfully out of the title debate in human-world, but is now firmly entrenched as computer #1.  That's right, the humans have them at 5 and 6, but the computers have pulled them to within spitting distance of the title game.  

Dodged one there, BCS.  Now we get to see LSU's chainsaw get back to work after a month in the shop for a carb-job.  The Mississippi will run scarlet and gray in January.  Don't believe me?  Look at that graph again, and then remember the debacle that was the Lone Star Showdown.  This stuff is for real, people.  It's also obviously the year that a 2-loss team is the National Champion.  Seriously, who didn't see this coming?

I bash Wisconsin:
Wisconsin doesn't really matter because I hate them and they suck.  I defy you to give me one reason to like them.  Please lose to Hokie-Joke State in your bowl game, you free-loading varmints.  I hate you and I don't care if anyone I know is a badger.

Billingsley Report Card:
Well, surprise, surprise.  Craziest of all college football seasons, and Billingsley finishes the craziest of all crazy years with his best performance yet.  Madness:

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Yes, that's right, people.  Below 50% throwouts this week.  He counted more than he didn't.  I think that this is the biggest indictment of all, though, since it took the craziest poll I've ever seen to make him look good.  Seriously.  The craziest.  His standard deviation is still off in "Big Ten is still a good conference" land, but that's mostly because he still thinks the Big Ten is still a good conference.  He's also the only computer that still ranks Boise State.  and he ranks them #16.  Are you kidding me?  He ranks them, but not Auburn, USF, or Texas.  Fire him, BCS.  Fire him.

Lesson of the Week:
Just when you think you've seen madness in its purest form, it gets a little madder.  The lesson here is that there truly is no limit to how crazy a football season can get.  The other lesson is that Ohio State is naturally more deserving of a shot at the national title than your team.  This is because of the great tradition there.  Go to title game, get embarrassed, fool everyone again next year.  They are the OU of the North.