With just a single day of play left, things are really starting to fall into place. Arkansas and North Carolina State will both be playing for automatic berths on Sunday. Neither team would likely be an at-large team. If they win, two more bubble teams will have their hopes burst. But barring upsets in the ACC or SEC finals, here is my final Bracketology.
Automatic Berths--One Bid Leagues
Albany (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Weber State (Big Sky), Winthrop (Big South), Long Beach State/Cal Poly (Big West), Memphis (Conference USA), Penn (Ivy) Niagara (MAAC), Miami of Ohio (MAC), Florida A&M (MEAC), Oral Roberts (Mid-Con), C. Conn. State (Northeast), Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley), Holy Cross (Patriot), Davidson (Southern), Texas A&M CC/Northwestern St (Southland), North Texas (Sun Belt), Jackson State (SWAC), and Gonzaga (WCC). 19 automatic bids.
Next, there are a couple of conferences that will land two bids because their top team was upset in the conference tournament.
George Washington and Xavier (Atlantic 10), Wright State and Butler (Horizon), and New Mexico State/Utah State and Nevada (WAC). 6 more bids gone.
So, there are 40 bids remaining that will come from the remaining nine conferences, including the six power conferences.
ACC--7 bids
In: North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech
Out: Florida State, Clemson
Georgia Tech's eight wins over the top 50 will likely be enough. Florida State is the ultimate bubble team: tough schedule and five wins over the top 50 but 12 losses and a mediocre RPI. They land on the wrong side of the bubble.
Big East--7 bids
In: Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse
Out: West Virginia
WVU comes up a win shy in their quest for an at-large berth. 2-7 against the top 50 is not enough.
Pac 10--5 bids
In: UCLA, Oregon, Washington State, USC, Arizona
Out: Stanford
The Cardinal lost four of their last five and saw their at-large berth disappear with Nevada and Butler getting upset.
Big 12--5 bids
In: Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
Out: Oklahoma State
Kansas State is one of the last teams in. I'm still not sold on their resume and won't be surprised if they are left out. The Wildcats better root hard for Florida and North Carolina.
SEC--4 bids
In: Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Out: Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia
Arkansas must beat Florida on Sunday, otherwise the Hogs will be post-season NIT favorites.
Big 10--6 bids
In: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Illinois and Purdue both improved their resumes -just- enough in Chicago to earn berths.
Mountain West--2 bids
In: UNLV, BYU
Out: Air Force
Air Force loses their last four games to fall from a top 20 team nationally to out of the NCAA tournament.
Missouri Valley--2 bids
In: Southern Illinois, Creighton
Out: Missouri State
Missouri State lost in the semifinals and will now just have to sit and wait. The upsets came and Missouri State's at-large berth is gone.
Colonial--2 bids
In: Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion
Out: Drexel
ODU won 12 of their last 13 and went 15-3 in conference. That plus a decent RPI is enough. Drexel lost all four meetings to the other top teams. Colonial is not going to land three bids.
Last Four In: Old Dominion, Purdue, Kansas State, Illinois
Last Four Out: Florida State, Drexel, Missouri State, Air Force
Next Four Out: West Virginia, Arkansas, Stanford, Oklahoma State
--AW--