As we all know, there are 65 bids up for grabs. Right now, it appears there are 22 conferences that will send just a single team to the NCAA tournament. That would leave, at most, 43 other bids. I say `at most' because of the potential for upsets in conference tournaments. Conference USA looks to be a one-bid league but if Memphis gets upset, then they will send two teams to the Dance and one bubble team will be left at home. Same goes for Butler in the Horizon League, Nevada in the WAC, and maybe even Xavier in the Atlantic 10.
I have picked 42 teams below which allows for at least one upset in the 22 one-bid conference tournaments.
ACC--7 bids
Locks: North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Duke
Bubble Problems: Georgia Tech, Florida State
The Yellow Jackets probably get in with a win today or with two wins in the ACC tournament. All of FSU's 11 losses have been good ones, but they still need to make some serious noise in the ACC tournament to have a shot.
Big East--7 bids
Locks: Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova
Bubble Problems: Syracuse, West Virginia
Syracuse is most likely in with their big win over Georgetown, while West Virginia probably needs to win two games in New York. It's hard to see the Big East earning eight bids, though.
Pac 10--6 bids
Locks: UCLA, Washington State, USC, Oregon, Arizona
Bubble Problems: Stanford
The Cardinal missed a major opportunity on Saturday against Arizona but ten conference wins is probably enough.
Big 12--5 bids
Locks: Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas
Likely: Texas Tech
Bubble Problems: Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Texas Tech is in with a first round win in the Big 12 tourney. Kansas State probably needs to beat Tech in the quarterfinals to feel confident and Oklahoma State most likely needs to win the tournament to earn a berth.
SEC--5 bids
Locks: Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky
Likely: Vanderbilt
Bubble Problems: Alabama, Georgia
Vandy is probably fine with ten SEC wins and 20 wins overall, but a win in the SEC tournament wouldn't hurt. Someone will likely represent the SEC West, but their identity remains unclear right now.
Big 10--4 bids
Locks: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana
Likely: Michigan State
Bubble Problems: Illinois, Purdue
The top heavy Big 10 is not a strong conference overall but should easily land at least four bids. Illinois and Purdue likely need two wins in the Big 10 tournament to have a legitimate gripe.
Mountain West--3 bids
Locks: UNLV, BYU, Air Force
Bubble Problems: None
Bubble teams will be hoping for any of these three to win the conference tourney title.
Missouri Valley--3 bids
Locks: Southern Illinois, Creighton
Bubble Problems: Missouri State
Missouri State lost in the semifinals and will now just have to sit and wait. The fewer upsets the better for their cause. Missouri State is probably be the last team in.
Colonial--2 bids
Locks: Virginia Commonwealth
Bubble Problems: Old Dominion, Drexel
ODU and Drexel can really strengthen their resumes with trips to the Colonial finals.
Last Four In: Georgia Tech, Alabama, Kansas State, Missouri State
Last Four Out: West Virginia, Drexel, Illinois, Florida State
--AW--