As always, comments are welcome. For a lot of teams, we just don't know much yet. Data, data, data: we need more of it. For now, this (or something close to it) will do. I'm always eager to hear what others think of the teams out there, so even if you disagree with how my calculus shakes out, let your thoughts be known.
Note that without much data yet, this is a blend of looking at resume and doing some good old fashioned guessing. Take it for what it's worth.
Please note that, at this point, no one-loss teams receive much consideration. Just sorta the nature of looking at a resume. A loss stands out right now. Others will follow (and fall).