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BCS Breakdown 2008 V1.3

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Sigh... Late again. -HB

Last week I said the polls were pointing to a close game in Jacksonville and a Texas win in Lubbock, and I was wrong both times, though just barely on the latter.  Bring it on, Red Raider internet users (technical major graduates), but I'm saying Texas played like crap and we still had to hand you back the game in the final seconds after we let it thump us in the chest.  I suppose my spreadsheets can't account for how beat up a team gets after playing three top 12 teams in a row.  Coming off a blowout or a bye-week, Texas wins in Lubbock, and we're all bragging on how good our farts smell.  I guess that's just the way the wind blows on the plains, though.

Stuff you don't read anyway after the break...

Outliers watch:

Charts, graphs, whatever:


Well, last week, there were only a few weirdos:  Alabama, Texas Tech, Texas (marginally), and LSU.  Oddly enough, two of them played this weekend, and two played the week before.

Alabama was hurting in the computers a little bit, and a little bit of uncertainty is all it takes to send up a red flag for a top team.  Sure enough, the high standard deviation was followed by a very near collapse in Death Valley.  If Alabama were playing in a road game with that kind of homefield advantage and a good football team, the outcome might have been different.  As it is, though, Jarrett Lee said "screw it" on his first throw in OT and killed the Tigers' hopes for an upset.  That's what that high standard deviation was telling us about LSU, as well.

As far as Texas and Tech go, these are really just a case of one side of the equation not having caught up with the other.  Both teams are getting underrated by the humans, but especially Texas.  The resume the Longhorns bring to the table is second to none as far as one-loss teams go.  The fact that the humans had us below OU and USC is absolute bull, but you knew that already.

Wish I could say more, but all that's left for this section is to note that the humans and computers are generally in far better agreement than average this year, as evidenced by the super low standard deviations of most of the teams.

Billingsley Report Card:

RB didn't disappoint us last week:


Head of the class in wackiness and in being ignored as usual, though he managed to actually have more than half of his rankings count for the first time this year.  He should really thinking about greasing the beads on his abacus representing Alabama, USC, Utah, LSU and Ball State, as they seem to be stuck in last year.  Alabama, Utah and Ball State all receive higher than the  #4, #14, and #25 he gives them from every other computer.  On the other hand, RB is too generous to USC and LSU, who have either played no one (USC) or been exposed badly multiple times (LSU).  Is USC really #5?  Ahead of Florida and Oklahoma?

That's enough for a week late version of BCS Breakdown.  Now I'll get started on this week's numbers and try and get back to you before Friday.