clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Bursting Bubbles and Final NCAA Tournament Projections

One final day of basketball before the bracket is announced at 5 pm (central) Sunday on CBS and on ESPN, just a few seconds later. Does anyone want a #1 seed? North Carolina, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Michigan State, and Oklahoma all lost in their conference tournaments. I can’t imagine all four #1s making it to the Final Four in Detroit, like they did last year. In fact, I’d be surprised if even three top seeds make it to the final two rounds.

Congratulations to Missouri, USC, Louisville and Memphis for winning conference championships in the Big 12, Pac 10, Big East, and Conference USA respectively. The ACC, SEC, and Big 10 titles will be decided this afternoon.

Here is my list of busted bubble teams. Say hello to the NIT. Another team will join this list if Mississippi State defeats Tennessee in the SEC tournament final. UPDATE: Add St. Mary's to the bubble bursting list, courtesy of Mississippi State's SEC tournament championship.

Big East: Providence, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Georgetown
ACC: Miami, Virginia Tech
Big Ten: Penn State, Northwestern
SEC: South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, Auburn
Pac 10: Arizona
Atlantic 10: Rhode Island, St. Joe’s
Mtn West: UNLV, New Mexico
C-USA: Tulsa, UAB
Missouri Valley: Creighton
West Coast: St Mary's

I agree with Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s Bracketologist, on 64 of 65 teams. I’ve got San Diego State in and Creighton out. He has the opposite.

Here are my ‘educated’ guesses at the top 16 teams in the NCAA tournament. I am assuming that Duke defeats Maryland Florida State.

No 1: Louisville, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Connecticut
No 2: Memphis, Duke, Michigan State, Oklahoma
No 3: Kansas, Missouri, Villanova, Wake Forest
No 4: Washington, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Florida State

Next Four: Xavier, Illinois, Arizona State, Purdue

Big 12 Bids (6)
Lock: Oklahoma (2 seed), Kansas (3), Missouri (3), Texas (7)
Likely: Oklahoma State (9), Texas A&M (9)
Bubble Burst: Kansas State, Baylor