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Morning Coffee's Second Texas Junior Day Primer

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Horns_bullet_mediumA day of few offers, disappointment for recruits. If the first Junior Day is overwhelmingly a joyous occasion for the coaching staff, which typically receives between 8-12 commitments, and for the attendees, almost all of whom receive their coveted Texas offers -- only Nathan Hughes walked away from the first Junior Day without one -- the second Junior Day typically features only 25-30% of the attendees receiving offers and disappointment for the other 15-20 attendees.

Few players who do not receive offers at the second Junior Day ever receive one, even if the coaches may tell them that they will continue to evaluate their progress through the spring and summer. Only Galena Park North Shore receiver DeAndrew White attended the second Junior Day last year and eventually received an offer after leaving Austin without one. In fact, it's much more likely that the coaches will come upon a relatively unheralded player at a summer camp and offer them, as happened with Marshall linebacker Aaron Franklin last season.

Horns_bullet_mediumNumbers from last year. There were 23 attendees at the second Junior Day last year, with only nine of those players receiving offers -- Jake Matthews, Dominic Espinosa, Bryant Jackson, Chris Jones, Ashton Dorsey, Torrea Peterson, Traylon Shead, Greg Daniels, and Ross Apo and seven of those players committing soon after. Apo de-committed several months later after realizing he wanted to play with friend Jake Heaps at BYU and be closer to his mother in California. Those nine offers represented around 40% of the attendees, a number that will probably be lower this year.

It's also worth pointing out that Daingerfield receiver Chris Jones, whose stock soared after his commitment and his impressive junior film came out, was completely under the radar and a surprise offer and commit. His story represents a triumph of evaluation for the coaching staff. Expect there to be another player like that this year.

Horns_bullet_medium2010 second Junior Day attendees:

Note: Players listed as possible recipients of offers but not commitments means they may still become Longhorns, but not this weekend.

  • Daniel Lasco, The Woodlands running back -- His speed is without question and his film shows potential as a one-cut, plant-and-go zone runner, but there are probably too many questions about his frame and ability to run with good pad level for him to receive an offer, which would probably come as an athlete. Offer? No.
  • Hakeem Flowers, Greenville (SC) wide receiver/athlete -- Apparently has some family in Texas and has offers from all across the country, but it's hard to see the Longhorns offer him unless it is as an athlete because the numbers are so tight. It's conceivable that he leaves Austin without an offer. Offer? No.
  • Marquis Jackson, Fort Worth Arlington Heights wide receiver/athlete/defensive back -- With numbers tight at receiver, would probably be offered as a defensive back after several members of the coaching staff watching him lock down Darius White last fall. The question is, would he be willing to play defense with most teams recruiting him as a receiver? Offer? Possible. Commitment? Probable.
  • Taylor Chappell, Canadian offensive lineman -- Could be the under the radar offer in this group. Big kid at 6-6, 270 pounds, but plays in the lowest classification in the Panhandle and that could hurt him. Offer? No.
  • Garrett Greenlea, Klein Collins offensive tackle -- The commitment of Sedrick Flowers should not alter the plan with him and he's simply too talented and too tough at the point of attack not to offer him. Will probably come down to Texas and Oklahoma if the Longhorns offer. Offer? Yes. Commitment? No.
  • Matthew Hegarty, Aztec (NM) offensive tackle -- An elite athlete at the position, Hegarty is a perfect fit for both the zone blocking scheme Texas employs and for a spread passing team. Texas looks to be in excellent shape with Hegarty, but watch out for Notre Dame. Plans on waiting until the end of the summer to make a decision. Offer? Yes. Commitment? No.
  • James Castleman, Amarillo defensive tackle -- Probably on the outside looking in with offers out to Marquis Anderson and Quincy Russell already. Offer? No.
  • Lance Skyler, Lancaster defensive end -- Another position where numbers are incredibly tight. Offer? No.
  • Kendall Thompson, Carthage linebacker -- A poor man's Steve Edmond with a similar frame and similar production. An offer would probably come as a defensive end. Offer? Possible. Commitment? Probable.
  • Eric Agbaroji, Midlothian cornerback -- Fell on the Texas board after struggling through a knee injury as a junior. Offer? No.
  • Charles Jackson, Klein Collins cornerback -- A little on the small side at 5-9, Jackson is in strong contention for one of the last two offers to go out to a cornerback in the class. Offer? Possible. Commitment? Probable.
  • Franklin Shannon, Dallas Skyline safety -- Just don't see it with him on film and he may end up at linebacker in college if he continues to put on muscle mass. May not attend. Offer? No.
  • Nick Shepard, Houston Cy Ridge safety -- The younger brother of Russell Shepard. Reportedly a big hitter, but the Longhorns probably have a guy like Quandre Diggs ahead of him on their board and Avery Walls is still a possibility for an offer and Shepard may end up at cornerback in college anyway. Offer? No.
  • LaDarius Brown, Waxahachie athlete -- Virtually the same player as Mykkele Thompson and there are rumors circulating about grade issues. If he was the top target, he would have been at the first Junior Day. Offer? No.
  • Quandre Diggs, Angleton athlete -- It took some time for Diggs to grow on me, but he's extremely versatile and could play on offense or defense and wants to play defensive back -- there are no concerns that he won't buy into playing defense if asked to do so. Plus, he's Quentin Jammer's brother and he's known the staff for most of his life. Offer? Yes. Commitment? Yes.

Horns_bullet_mediumPlayers who will not attend the second Junior Day:

  • Brandon Williams, Brookshire-Royal running back -- Committed to Baylor. Was not a lock for an offer, but quickly shot up the rankings after the release of his incredible junior film. Looks more like Adrian Peterson than any other running back since AD himself. Rumors now circulating that he may begin to take other visits. Keep an eye on this one.
  • Herschel Sims, Abilene running back -- Decided not to attend the second Junior Day and apparently has not heard much from the coaching staff ($) recently and that lack of contact is the most likely reason that he will not visit.
  • Devon Hocutt, Killeen Ellison linebacker -- Once upon a time it looked like Hocutt was a strong candidate for an offer, but he just doesn't project as a linebacker in college and will not make it in for the second Junior Day. There is little chance that he receives a Texas offer at any point in the process.
  • Trevon Randle, League City Clear Springs linebacker -- Committed to LSU. Great range, but lacks elite size for a linebacker.
  • Kolby Griffin, Houston St. Pius X -- Committed to TCU. Long considered a lock if offered, Grififn may have fallen on the Texas board before deciding to head elsewhere.
  • Josh Turner, Oklahoma City (OK) cornerback -- One of the top cornerbacks in the country, his basketball team needed to lose on Thursday evening for him to avoid playing a game on Saturday. Well, Millwood beat Marlow 102-16, so Turner will not be able to make it down to Austin for the second Junior Day. However, visiting is a major priority for him and he won't fall off the radar just because he isn't able to attend this weekend.

Horns_bullet_mediumThe Longhorns will finish the weekend with commitments from...

Quandre Diggs is the only player who is a lock to receive an offer and probably to commit, but Kendall Thompson could easily join him. The cornerback position will be the most interesting to keep an eye on, as Agbaroji and one of the Jacksons will amost certainly receive an offer and Marquis Jackson seems like the only one of the three who would not commit right away. There's a strong chance Texas ends the weekend with no more than 16 commitments.