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Big XII Projected Standings by Tier

For the second week in a row, we'll take a look at the conference standings by adding what we project to happen to what has already occurred to get our best guess at each team's final Big XII record.

A quick review:

Tier I
Projected Wins: All home games and road games against Tier III teams.
Toss-Ups:Road games against Tier II teams.
Projected Losses:Road games against Tier I teams.

Tier II
Projected Wins: Home games against Tier II and Tier II teams.
Toss-Ups: Home games against Tier I teams & road games against Tier III teams.
Projected Losses: Road games against Tier I and Tier II teams.

Tier III
Projected Wins: Home games against Tier III teams.
Toss-Ups: Home games against Tier II teams are toss-ups.
Projected Losses: All road games & home games against Tier I teams.

This time last week Baylor was knocking on the Tier I door. However, due to their loss in College Station over the weekend, the Bears remain in Tier II. Even with splits last week Texas and Missouri deserve their Tier I rankings, along with Kansas and Kansas State. Texas A&M and Oklahoma State remain in Tier II alongside Baylor. And the bottom five stay consistent too-Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Colorado, Iowa State, and Nebraska.

The big winner last week was clearly Texas A&M. The Aggies gained a full game in their projected record with a win at Missouri on Wednesday. The big loser of the week was Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had the only two toss-up games and lost both. Travis Ford's team has now lost three straight, sits at 4-5 in league play, and probably needs to win five of their next seven to feel safe on Selection Sunday.

For the week, the tier system went 7-2 (A&M over Missouri and OU over Texas were the two surprises.).

Team Actual Record Projected Record Toss Ups Projected Losses
1. Kansas

8 - 0

13 - 3

@ A&M; @ Ok State @ Texas; @ Missouri
2. Kansas State

6 - 3

12 - 4

@ Kansas
3. Missouri

5 - 3

11.5 - 4.5

@ Baylor @ Kansas St
4. Texas

5 - 3

11 - 5

@ A&M; @ Baylor @ Missouri
5. Texas A&M

6 - 3

9.5 - 6.5

@ Tech; vs. Kansas; @ Iowa St; vs. Texas; @ OU @ Baylor;
6. Baylor

4 - 4

8.5 - 7.5

@ Nebraska; vs. Missouri; @ OU; @ Tech; vs. Texas @ Ok State;
7. Oklahoma State

4 - 5

8 - 8

@ Iowa St; vs. Kansas; @ Texas; @ A&M;
8. Oklahoma

4 - 4

6 - 10

vs. Baylor; vs. A&M @ Ok State; @ Colorado; vs. Kansas St; @ KU; @ Texas
8. Colorado

2 - 7

5 - 11

@ KSU; @KU; @ Missouri; @ Nebraska
10. Iowa State

2 - 6

4 - 12

vs. Ok State; vs. A&M; @ Missouri; @ KU; @CU; vs. Missouri; @ KSU
10. Texas Tech

3 - 5

4 - 12

vs. A&M; vs. Baylor; @ OU; @ Baylor; vs. Texas; vs. Kansas St; @ Nebraska; @CU
11. Nebraska

1 - 7

3.5 - 12.5

vs. Baylor @ Texas; @KSU; vs. Missouri; vs, Iowa State; @Ok State

Thoughts on the week ahead after the jump.

Biggest Surprise from Last Week: A&M winning at Missouri Coming into Wednesday's game, the Tigers were 13-0 at home, and the Aggies were 1-4 on the road on the season. Oh yeah, and Missouri was riding a 32 game home court winning streak. It wasn't exactly the recipe for an upset. But A&M got great performances from forwards Khris Middleton and David Loubeau, shot 52% from the floor, and held Mizzou without a basket for over ten minutes in the second half to pull off the upset. A&M is now in great shape for an NCAA tournament berth and could even sneak into the top four with some wins over Texas and Baylor down the stretch.

Teams with Favorable Schedules: Kansas St, I guess. The Wildcats play just once this week-home vs. Colorado on Saturday. The other top teams have some challenges as they each play two games. Kansas goes to Austin but gets to host Iowa State on Saturday. Missouri hosts Iowa State on Wednesday but must travel to Waco over the weekend. And Texas hosts Kansas and Nebraska. Both are projected wins but after seeing the ‘Horns play since January, who freaking knows.

Toss-Up Games: Baylor at Nebraska, Missouri at Baylor, & A&M at Texas Tech. Last week Oklahoma State got its shot to move forward with two toss-up games but squandered both chances. This week, Baylor has its opportunity.

Upset Pick: A&M over Texas Tech in Lubbock I'm not reaching much with this one. The Red Raider fans haven't been supporting Pat Knight's club this season, which lessens their home court advantage. Second, the Aggies will be well rested by Saturday because this is their only game this week. Last, Bryan Davis and the other A&M forwards should be able to dominate the paint and the glass.

Post-season Outlook: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Missouri, and Baylor are NCAA locks at this point. Texas A&M is nearing lock status and will earn a berth for sure if they can win nine conference game. Oklahoma State would be out if the season ended today. However, the Cowboys still have opportunities to impress the committee as games with Baylor, Kansas, Texas, and A&M await.