Statistical Scouting Report of the Baylor Bears on Offense

With Texas' important match-up against the Baylor Bears coming tonight, I thought it would be interesting to put together a statistical scouting report of five of the key players for the Baylor Bears. In going through this exercise, I think I can summarize the major points:

1) Pierre Jackson is probably the guy who worries me the most. He isn't the best player on Baylor, but he is pretty good, and clearly does much of the damage for the Baylor offense. He can get to the basket and create opportunities for himself and others, and he can knock down three point shots. He will be a major challenge for Texas. The Texas guards will have to keep Jackson out of the lane.

2) The Baylor big men are good. They are much more dangerous when they can catch a pass from a driving guard or crash the offensive glass. Both Perry Jones and Quincy Miller have nice looking jump shots (particularly Miller), but they both have a tendency to settle for shots from mid-range, which are seldom efficient shots even for the very best shooters. Texas will want to get Jones and Miller into settling mode.

More details, after the jump.

The Guards

Pierre Jackson is the key piece of the Baylor offense. He affects virtually everything that happens offensively for Baylor, which can be both good and bad.

Jackson is an efficient scorer, with a true shooting percentage of 0.607. His offense comes in a number of ways. About a third of his attempts from the floor are at the rim, and he is a decent finisher at the rim, making 62% of these attempts. Jackson creates most of these opportunities for himself. Jackson also takes 44% of his shots from three point range, and he makes 44% of what he takes there. Interestingly, only half of his made three point shots are assisted, suggesting that he is effective at getting and making three point shots for himself, in addition to knocking down shots in "catch and shoot" situations. Jackson also makes plays for others, assisting on just under 40% of his teammate's made field goals while on the floor. He is a really important player for Baylor on offense.

Jackson's statistics on two point jump shots tell an interesting story. He is pretty disciplined about not settling for low percentage two point jump shots, but if you can force him to pull up and take one, his shooting percentage from this range is not particularly good. Very few of his made two point shots are assisted, suggesting that they aren't part of the flow of the normal offense.

Jackson's greatest weakness is that he struggles with turnovers. More than one quarter of the Baylor possessions that end with ball in Jackson's hands result in a turnover. Without the turnovers, Jackson would probably be one of the very best guards in the country, and Baylor would be substantially better than they are.

Brady Heslip is a standard catch and shoot three point specialist that knocks down 45% of his attempts from beyond the arc. 82% of his attempts from the floor are three point shots, and 89% of his made threes are assisted. He doesn't beat you off the dribble, and doesn't make plays for other players. He also doesn't turn the ball over. He just catches and shoots. Don't leave him alone.

The Big Men

Perry Jones is a fantastic basketball player. Assuming he remains healthy, Jones seems like a good candidate to play 10 or 15 years in the NBA. He is also the least efficient scorer of the five Baylor Bears that I have decided to highlight. A true shooting percentage of 0.546 isn't bad by any means, it is just that so many of the Baylor Bears can hurt you offensively. What keeps Jones efficiency numbers down is his tendency to shoot two point jump shots. It is not that he is a bad jump shooter, it is just that very few players are good enough as jump shooters to produce efficient offense on mid-range shots. At the rim, Jones is fantastic, making almost 80% of his shots there. 59% of his attempts at the rim come off of assists, and he is also a dangerous offensive rebounder.

It seems the key to slowing down Jones is to prevent others from making plays for him, and to keep him off the offensive glass. To accomplish both of these things, it will be very important that the Texas guards contain the penetration of Jackson. When a guard goes to the basket, it often draws a helping defender who is guarding one of the big men. If the guard does not make the pass, and misses the shot, the helping defender is often out of position for the rebound. So if Myck Kabongo can stay in front of Jackson, Perry Jones will become far less dangerous.

Quincy Miller is a 6-9 guy with a really good shot. Nearly 80% of his attempts are jump shots. He can shoot the three point shot in catch and shoot situations (he is hitting 42% from three point range). Like Jones, he also has a tendency to settle for two point jump shots, with 57% of his attempts coming on two point jump shots. He knocks a decent number of these shots down, but they are not nearly as efficient as the other ways that Baylor has to score. He is also a good finisher at the rim. 71% of his made shots at the rim came off of assists, suggesting that he isn't creating many of these chances for himself. I think Miller is a really good player, but I think Texas would be well served to find out if he can beat them with his mid-range game. If I were making the game plan, I would want to force him to put the ball on the deck, and see if he can make a play.

Quincy Acy probably contributes more defensively than he does offensively, but when he does get involved on offense, he does well. He is Baylor's second best offensive rebounder, and he finishes at the rim as well as Perry Jones (or anyone else in the country) does. Acy can hurt a team in catch and finish situations around the basket, and on the offensive boards. You have to keep a body on him.

Data Tables

Box score Statistics (source: sports-reference.com)

Play-by-play numbers (source: hoop-math.com)