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Texas opens as a 3-point favorite over Iowa State

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Next Saturday’s matchup will close out the regular season at home for the Horns and feature Big 12 title implications.

Texas v Iowa State Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images

Following the last-second win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock on Saturday night, the Texas Longhorns have opened as three-point favorites over the Iowa State Cyclones on Sunday.

The Horns and Cyclones will face off at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium next Saturday at 7 p.m. Central on Longhorn Network, with the loser falling out of Big 12 title contention.

Iowa State is coming off a win of its own against Baylor, but it came with a cost — star junior running back David Montgomery will miss the first half after his ejection for fighting in Waco.

And that could be a major boon to the Horns, as Mongtomery’s specialty is breaking tackles and there’s a large drop off to the second-string running back.

However, freshman quarterback Brock Purdy has changed the entire dynamic of the Iowa State offense since his ascension to the starting role a little more than a month ago against Oklahoma State. In those five games, the Cyclones haven’t lost, with the crushing defeat of the Mountaineers still standing as the high point.

So while the S&P+ projections had Texas as the favorite with a 52-percent win probability entering this weekend, it’s certainly a narrow margin and could change as the numbers get crunched in the coming hours. And with the injury report for the Horns, which is increasingly lengthy and includes key starters like junior wide receiver Collin Johnson (knee) and junior safety Brandon Jones (ankle), who both missed the game in Lubbock.