The No. 15 Texas Longhorns can clinch the No. 3 seed in the 2021 Big 12 Tournament with a win on Sunday against the TCU Horned Frogs in Fort Worth after the Oklahoma State Cowboys went to Morgantown and toppled the West Virginia Mountaineers on Saturday.
Here are the final scenarios for this week’s tournament:
Big 12 Tournament Seeding Probabilities - The final 4 scenarios: pic.twitter.com/KavmcWHUuC— Matt Hackman (@mjhackman) March 7, 2021
The scenarios laid out above illustrate the importance of winning Sunday’s game — the combination of a Texas loss and Texas Tech win would drop the Longhorns to the sixth seed and force them to face the Mountaineers on Thursday. If Baylor wins and Texas loses, head coach Shaka Smart’s team would face No. 4 seed Oklahoma State on Thursday in the early game.
A win against TCU locks in a third game against Texas Tech after the Horns dropped both contests this season, including the last-second loss at home back in January.
Beyond the debate about whether Texas matches up better with West Virginia, Oklahoma State, or Texas Tech, earning the No. 3 seed matters because it sets up a semifinal game against Kansas instead of Baylor.
And making the championship game, regardless of result, could help Texas earn a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and avoid a potential Sweet 16 matchup against a No. 1 seed. With Villanova struggling following the injury to Collin Gillespie, there’s a real opportunity to stay off the four line.
Texas is currently the second No. 4 seed in the Bracket Matrix aggregate, so keep that potential semifinals matchup with Kansas in mind — the Jayhawks are currently the last No. 3 seed in the Bracket Matrix.
But a loss to the Horned Frogs could imperil that four seed in the NCAA Tournament, so there will be plenty on the line Sunday as the regular season ends for the Longhorns.